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Nuclear weapons in terrorist hands?
January 16, 2004Are nuclear weapons of the simpler variety in the hands of a terrorist group- a realistic threat? That question has been studied in a report from FOI (Swedish Defence Research Agency), and the conclusion is that the possibility of nuclear charges being used for terror ends cannot be written off.
How hard is it to make a functioning primitive nuclear charge?
What competences and resources are required?
Is it possible to get hold of functioning raw materials?
Is it possible to use radiation detection to reveal nuclear weapons or nuclear weapon materials?
What impact would a primitive nuclear charge have if it exploded in a densely populated area?
These are some of the questions addressed and answered by a team of scientists at FOI in Sweden in a new report.
The report finds that the risk of a terrorist group assembling a primitive nuclear charge that could produce a nuclear explosion is great enough to be taken seriously.
The most critical aspect for such a group is getting hold of usable fission material, that is, enriched uranium or plutonium. It is most probable that this material would be illegally bought or stolen. Materials from facilities in the former Soviet Union are most likely to wind up in the wrong hands. The US and Russia are jointly working to establish better security by various measures. For example, highly enriched uranium from Soviet-built research reactors in Eastern Europe are starting to be transferred to Russia for more secure control. Nevertheless, incidents such as the one in November 2003, in which a top representative of Atomflot on the Kola Peninsula confessed at a trial that he had taken with him considerable amounts of highly enriched uranium, show that it is possible to procure such uranium, and this happened only recently.
The report concludes that the technological threshold for producing an explosion is comparatively low, but it still requires a knowledge of physics, metallurgy, mechanical engineering, and explosives.
An explosion from a nuclear charge would have a powerful psychological and political impact even though the strength of the blast would be relatively minor. If a terrorist group were to 'succeed' in creating an explosion, the damage done would potentially be extremely comprehensive, according to the researchers.
Finally, the possibility of detecting nuclear charges by radiation is discussed, an issue that has been the object of much deliberation when it comes to nuclear weapons. It is probable that a simple nuclear charge would be easier to expose than a more sophisticated weapon, the team concludes.
Vetenskapsrådet (The Swedish Research Council)
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