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Improved estimates of population extinction risk (Harding and McNamara)
December 10, 2003An important application of theoretical ecology is in estimation of species extinction risk. Extinction models guide the selection of management regimes for endangered species. Two vital parameters in these models are the mean population growth rate and its variance. However, empirical data on population growth are rarely perfect, but are influenced by random sampling error (induced by e.g. weather conditions). It has been unclear how sampling error influences extinction estimates.
In the latest issue of Ecology Letters, McNamara (U. Bristol) and Harding (U. Göteborg) show that sampling error has two opposite effects on estimates of population extinction risk. The errors lead to an exaggerated overall variance, but also introduce negative autocorrelations in the time series of population growth data. Interestingly, these two effects exactly counterbalance. Thus, a practical and efficient way to resolve the problem of dealing with sampling error is to routinely incorporate a measure of between year correlations in estimating population extinction risk.
Blackwell Publishing Ltd
Extinction Current Events and Extinction News RSSGlobal warming link to amphibian declines in doubt
Evidence that global warming is causing the worldwide declines of amphibians may not be as conclusive as previously thought, according to biologists. The findings, which contradict two widely held views, could help reveal what is killing the frogs and toads and aid in their conservation.
Death by hyperdisease
It took less than a decade for native rats to become extinct on the Indian Ocean's previously uninhabited Christmas Island once Eurasian black rats jumped ship onto the island at the turn of the 20th century.
Effects of climate change vary greatly across plant families
Drawing on records dating back to the journals of Henry David Thoreau, scientists at Harvard University have found that different plant families near Walden Pond have borne the effects of climate change in strikingly different ways.
Current mass extinction spurs major study of which plants to save
The Earth is in the midst of the sixth mass extinction of both plants and animals, with nearly 50 percent of all species disappearing, scientists say.
Running on rocket fuel
In the world of "cut and thrust," humans try to bank money to obtain financial security, and often form cooperatives to reduce risks and increase gains.
New hope for the red squirrel
A number of red squirrels are immune to squirrelpox viral disease, which many believed would lead to the extinction of the species, scientists have discovered.
UGA study reveals ecosystem-level consequences of frog extinctions
Streams that once sang with the croaks, chirps and ribbits of dozens of frog species have gone silent. They're victims of a fungus that's decimating amphibian populations worldwide.
Global warming threatens Australia's iconic kangaroos
As concerns about the effects of global warming continue to mount, a new study published in the December issue of Physiological and Biochemical Zoology finds that an increase in average temperature of only two degrees Celsius could have a devastating effect on populations of Australia's iconic kangaroos.
Warming in Yosemite National Park sends small mammals packing to higher, cooler elevations
Global warming is causing major shifts in the range of small mammals in Yosemite National Park, one of the nation's treasures that was set aside as a public trust 144 years ago, according to a new study by University of California, Berkeley, biologists.
Smithsonian perspective: Biodiversity in a warmer world
Will climate change exceed life's ability to respond? Biodiversity in a Warmer World, published in the Oct. 10, 2008 issue of the journal, Science, illustrates that cross-disciplinary research fostered by the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute in Panama clearly informs this urgent debate.
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