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Commission's Joint Research Centre forecasts this year's crop losses caused by drought

August 20, 2003

The Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC) uses its advanced crop yield forecasting system to predict the effects of the persisting drought on this year's harvest in the European Union. The expected drop in the main crop yields ranges from about 2% for potato to 25% for sunflower at EU level. The loss in wheat production will be approximately 10 million tonnes compared to the previous agricultural campaign.
The quantitative forecasts produced by the JRC on a regular basis in support of the Common Agricultural Policy cover the main crops, such as wheat, grain maize, rape seed, sunflower, sugar beet and potato.

Commissioner Philippe Busquin, responsible for Research, stresses that the exceptional weather situation has affected the whole of Europe and that the state of the art crop yield forecasting system allows to anticipate the impact of the drought and to support decision making in European Agricultural Policy in an effective manner.

From the analysis of the JRC crop indicators it emerges that this year's extreme weather conditions diminish the quantity and quality of the harvests particularly in central and southern Europe's agricultural areas.
The winter crops suffered from the effects of a harsh winter and late spring frost. The heat wave starting as early as June caused the crops to develop in advance by 10 to 20 days anticipating ripening and maturity stages. Thus winter-spring cereals entered into grain filling stages under insufficient soil moisture conditions.
The very high values of air temperature and solar radiation, recorded especially in the second part of July and beginning of August, resulted in a notable increase of the crops' water consumption. This, together with the summer dry spell, resulted in an acute depletion of the soil water reservoirs available to the crops. Since April 2003 the climatic water balance indicator (which represents the balance between water supply from rainfall and the crops' water requirements) shows a significant deficit in the majority of the Member States (excluding only the northern countries: Denmark, Finland, Ireland, Sweden and U.K.) giving concern for yields for the summer crops still in place.

A coherent agriculture production forecasts system for Europe:
The yield forecasts are calculated bi-monthly based on agro-meteorological model outputs and satellite indicators combined with time series trend analyses. The models and methodology used have been conceived, experimented and operationally implemented within the Monitoring Agriculture with Remote Sensing Unit (MARS) of the Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen (IPSC) of the European Commission's JRC.
The crop yield results at Pan-European level and a full description of the methodology are available at http://mars.jrc.it/stats/bulletin and at http://www.marsop.info.

The following yield forecasts, issued on 14th August, are based upon observation data recorded on 10th August (it should be noted that all of the yield forecasts refer to potentially harvested areas):

Total Wheat (including soft wheat and durum wheat varieties): The yield is expected to be lower by 6.6% as compared to last year. At EU15 level the MARS forecasts show a reduction of the total wheat yield by around 7% which results (together with the expected reduction in areas) in a lower wheat production of about 9.5% (approximately 10 Mt) compared to the previous year.
The most affected countries contributing to the low European yields are France (about 9% below average results), Germany (7% below average), Italy (12.3% below average) and Portugal (15% below average).

Grain Maize: The yield is expected to be lower by 10.1% as compared to last year. The exceptionally low soil moisture in summer is expected to decrease the average yield to 8.2 tonnes per hectare where the European average (1998-2002) is 9.0 t/ha. The extremely dry and hot summer conditions are even affecting the irrigated varieties. Possible restrictions to irrigation could further decrease the EU figure.

Rape Seed: The yield is expected to be lower by 4.2% as compared to last year. The European yield will be lower than average by about 6.6% (2.9 t/ha instead of 3.1 t/ha). In Germany and France results are expected to be in the order of 11% and 10% lower than average. The crop suffered from the April late frost, during flowering, and from lack of rain during its ripening period.

Sunflower: The yield is expected to be lower by 25.0% as compared to last year. The exceptionally dry summer is hitting especially the non-irrigated varieties and areas resulting in a lower than average yield by about 22%. The areas most affected will be Spain and Italy.

Sugar Beet: The yield is expected to be lower by 7.2% as compared to last year. The dry conditions are giving lower yields in terms of weight of roots by about 7% as compared to last year (58.3 t/ha instead of 62.5). However, the sugar content should be higher. The areas of production around the English Channel and the North Sea appear to be the least affected.

Potato: The yield is expected to be lower by 2.0% as compared to last year. As for the other summer crops, especially the non-irrigated varieties in light soils, will suffer from drought conditions. The EU yield is currently forecast at 35.7 t/ha (36.5 t/ha last year). The quality of the product could also be affected.

Pastures: All of the main Member States pasture areas are affected by the excessive lack of moisture. However, the largest reduction in biomass produced will be in the southern countries and the southern half of France (about 17% of the EU pasture areas).

European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC)