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Burden of heart failure set to rise substantially over the next 20 years

December 13, 2002

The burden of heart failure will continue to increase substantially over the next 20 years, concludes a study in Heart.

Researchers used epidemiological data to calculate the future burden of heart failure in Scotland over the period 2000 to 2020. Their projections were based on expected changes in the age structure of the Scottish population, and similar changes can be anticipated in the rest of the UK and in other developed countries such as the USA.




There are currently estimated to be 40,000 men and 45,000 women aged 45 years or over with heart failure in Scotland. On the basis of population changes alone, the authors calculated that these figures will rise by 2,300 (6%) in men and 1,500 (3%) in women by the year 2005, and by 12,300 (31%) in men and 7,800 (17%) in women by 2020.

On the same basis, the annual number of GP visits is likely to rise by 6,400 (6%) in men and 2,500 (2%) in women by 2005, and by 35,200 (40%) in men and 17,300 (16%) in women in the longer term.

By 2020, annual hospital admissions for heart failure are expected to increase by 34% (from 5,500 to 7,500) in men and 12% (from 7,800 to 8,500) in women.

Despite some inevitable study limitations, these results suggest that the burden of heart failure will continue to increase substantially over the next two decades, with the greatest increase likely to occur in men, say the authors. Future health service planning must take this into account, they conclude.

British Medical Journal (BMJ)



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