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Modelling disease spread in a novel host: rabies in the European badger Meles meles

December 04, 2002

A recently published article in the December issue of Journal of Applied Ecology deals with the potential spread of classical (fox) rabies if it were to get into the badger population in Britain. Smith and Wilkinson's paper, and its findings, are not relevant to bat rabies, as bat rabies has only been recorded in terrestrial animals on three occasions.

The modelling suggests that classical rabies may spread within high density badger populations, as found in the south-west of Britain. There is no empirical work on the spread of rabies in the badger, which is why Smith and Wilkinson needed to perform this modelling work. The UK rabies contingency plans have been designed to halt and eradicate terrestrial rabies if it were ever to arrive in Britain, and these lans include the vaccination and/ordestruction of relevant wildlife.

For more information about these plans refer to http://www.defra.gov.uk/animalh/diseases/notifiable/contingency/rabies_contingency.pdf.

Although the red fox (Vulpes vulpes) is the main servoir of rabies in Europe, badger (Meles meles) populations are known to be drastically affected. Models of badger population dynamics are combined with a fox/rabies model to examine the possibility of rabies spread in high-density badger populations, such as those found in the UK. Although some data exists on rabies epizootiology in the badger, there are no data on badger-to-badger contact rates (either healthy or diseased animals). As a starting point consensus expert opinion was used to devise contact probabilities, and the model was found to be insensitive to reasonable variation in these rates for the density of badgers at which these estimates were made.

Density-dependent (but not density-independent) contact probabilities simulated short chains of infections that may occur in continental Europe at low badger densities, and simulated true epizootics at higher densities. Another possible reason for these short chains of infections in continental Europe is a very high level of fragmentation between social groups. Given the high level of territorial contiguity and possible contact rates found in some parts of the UK, the model suggests that rabies is capable of spreading within the UK badger population, and a provisional map showing the likelihood of an epizootic is presented.

Blackwell Publishing Ltd

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