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Predicting Volcanic Eruptions
September 04, 2002The weather forecast could help predict volcanic eruptions, according to new research from the University of East Anglia (UEA).
Scientists from UEA`s School of Environmental Sciences found that intense rainfall can trigger volcanic dome collapse - a particular type of eruption that occurs when a build-up of molten rock inside the side of the mountain becomes unstable and collapses releasing lava, toxic gases and rocks and boulders.
"The eruption on the Caribbean island of Montserrat in July last year coincided with the first heavy rainfall in seven months, within hours of the rainfall starting the volcanic dome collapsed," said Dr Adrian Matthews, a meteorologist who lead the research together with UEA volcanologist, Dr Jenni Barclay.
The scientists also found that two previous eruptions of the Montserrat volcano were preceded by heavy rainfall.
One of the most dangerous aspects of volcanic dome collapse is the accompanying pyroclastic flow - an avalanche of searingly hot rocks and boulders, carried at high speed down the mountain on a bed of volcanic gases.
Using weather forecasts in conjunction with recent rainfall records could help improve the accuracy of predicting volcano eruptions and so provide additional warning.
"The next step is to work out how the rainfall triggers the eruption, it may be the water being turned to steam and building up inside the dome, like a pressure cooker," said Dr Matthews.
East Anglia, University of
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