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Project aims to predict the future of the Forth Estuary

September 03, 2002

A spin-out company from the University of Edinburgh, which created a system to build models simulating the effects of changes to the environment, has received new funding to develop animated maps of the Firth of Forth area . The maps and diagram-based software will help to predict the effects of changes in population, industry and transport on the area during the next 20 years.
Simulistics Ltd, founded by Dr Robert Muetzelfeldt at the University’s Institute of Ecology and Resource Management, has now received funding from the Scottish Executive to assist the commercial development of his innovative modeling software, Simile. The Forth Estuary area package will be used by environmentalists, educationalists and planning authorities to work out how changes in housing, transport, agriculture, fishing, tourism and industry will impact on the Forth area.
Researchers will take Simile, which enables users to design models by drawing diagrams that show the objects, processes and relationships within complex biological and ecological systems, and add geographical information about the Forth Estuary . Once complete, the models can be run and the results displayed using graphs, maps or a range of other visualizations.
The government Department for International Development has previously funded research to develop and use Simile in countries such as Indonesia, Zimbabwe and Costa Rica, to predict the impact of new strategies for sustainable development.
Dr Muetzelfeldt said: “One of the aims of Simile development is to show that it is possible to radically improve the way that modeling is undertaken within research programmes, without restricting the ability of researchers to design the models they want. Simile is easy enough to be picked up by students in an hour or so, but sophisticated enough to be used in international research projects.”
It could potentially be used to work out such issues as the pattern of spread if rabies got into Britain, the likely impact of habitat loss on a mountain gorilla population, or the best way of managing a red deer population.
Simulistics Managing Director Alastair Davies, an environmental industry expert, said: “The integrated management of the Firth of Forth area is one of our most complex and pressing challenges. The booming population, the need for new transport links and the internationally-important marine ecosystem all create conflicting pressures. The role of Simile is to bring insight to the long-term effects of the decisions we are taking today.”

For further information,please contact
Alastair Davies, Simulistics Ltd
Tel 0131 472 4719 Email alastair@simulistics.com
Website www.simulistics.com

Edinburgh, University of