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The Science Foresight Project

August 26, 2002

The Science Foresight Project is the first completely Internet-based international science foresight activity. The goal of the project was to identify emerging research developments in the physical and engineering sciences using experts selected by purely objective methods.

The Science Foresight Project was a collaborative project between SPRU, the Science and Technology Policy Research institute located on the University of Sussex campus and Dstl, the UK Defence Science and Technology Laboratory part of the UK Ministry of Defence.

International experts were objectively selected using co-citation patterns to the scientific and technical literature and they were invited to submit their predictions about emerging developments in their research fields. They were also asked how various factors and driving forces might affect their predictions. The cost and time required to administer the project was minimized through the use of Internet and Web based technologies.

When questioned about factors and driving forces that might affect their predictions the experts were optimistic that funding and all types of collaboration would likely increase in their areas of research over the next five years. However, they were less optimistic that the number of graduate students would increase. Most importantly, they believed that access to postdoctoral fellows, graduate students, improved instrumentation and computer algorithms and hardware are important driving forces in achieving their predictions.

Some common overarching patterns emerged from the predictions. Developments in mathematical and computational methods underline progress in many research areas. Emerging developments in nano science & technology and optical & quantum computing hold promise for novel advances in computing devices and systems. In turn these could profoundly impact mathematical and computational methods. Among other things these developments could satisfy an increasing demand in all areas of sciences to simulate phenomena from first principles and explore the intricate characteristics of dynamic non-linear systems, self-assembly processes and complex mesoscale organization.

Science Policy Research Unit (SPRU)