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Earthquake faults lost and found @ the London `Catastrophes` conference

August 17, 2002

Three great earthquakes during the winter of 1811-1812 struck eastern North America, causing widespread destruction in the northern Mississippi river valley, and even causing the Mississippi River to divert.

Though the estimated magnitudes of the earthquakes are between 7 and 8+, no definitive surface rupture has ever been identified. Instead, the seismic zone is delineated by microseismicity measured during the last several decades. However, it is unusual for shallow seismic events of this magnitude not to display any surface rupture - which has led Dr Peggy Guccione and colleagues to search for one.

New research by Dr Guccione argues that the Bootheel Lineament, a 135 km-long fault sub-parallel to the New Madrid seismic zone, caused the 1811-1812 earthquakes. Her detailed geological studies along the lineament support the hypothesis that the lineament is a surface rupture and that it is coincident with sediment liquefaction. More significantly, it appears that the structure not only ruptured in 1811-1812, but was responsible for at least two other rupture episodes.

If Peggy Guccione has found an earthquake fault, then Roy Schlemon appears to have lost one. Schlemon was responsible for the initial seismic hazard study for the Salt Lake City Convention Center, home of the 2002 winter Olympic Games. His geological studies revealed a previously unrecognised Holocene fault zone directly beneath the proposed Center. Radiocarbon and soil-stratigraphic dates show that a ~1.5 m vertical ground rupture event occurred between 7000 and 8000 years ago and that two further displacements of about 0.8m each took place after 6400 years ago.

The presence of Holocene faults would normally prevent construction of the Convention Center and adjacent buildings in accordance with Utah State law. But the potential social and economic consequences of law enforcement were so great that the governing agencies sought a "second opinion" about the origin and age of the fault. This second geotechnical review concluded that the observed displacements and vertical sand dikes were not site-specific Holocene faults, but rather were subsurface lateral spreads (liquefaction) ostensibly triggered by earthquake movement along the nearby (and active) Wasatch Fault.

Though debated vigorously in professional meetings, the "non-fault" hypothesis was ultimately accepted. Accordingly, the Convention Center is now built, operated well during the Olympics, and now annually hosts thousands of tourists, most of whom have no idea that they congregate on top of a zone characterized by repeated, Holocene ground failure.

The case of the `lost` earthquake fault of Salt Lake City illustrates that different interpretations of technical data are to be expected, especially when opposing opinions have major economic consequences. High-value, high-visibility projects invite potential "geopolitical manipulation" when short-term social and economic interests are at stake. Finally, legislating for public safety (e.g., setting up Holocene fault set-back zones) is one matter, but enforcing such legislation is another.

Geological Society of London, The




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