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Millions More at Risk Worldwide from Effects of Climate Change
December 10, 2001Many millions of people could be placed at risk as a result of higher temperatures in the future, according to new research co-ordinated by the University of East Anglia (UEA).
A group of researchers, led by Professor Martin Parry, of the Jackson Environment Institute at UEA, estimated the additional numbers of people likely to be at risk from hunger, water shortage, exposure to malaria and coastal flooding under future climatic conditions in the 2050s and the 2080s.
"Our figures tell a clear story: there will be many more millions at risk as time progresses," said Professor Parry.
- In the 2050s, it is estimated that a 2 degrees Celsius increase in global temperatures would cause in excess of 250 million additional people to be placed at risk of malaria than would otherwise be the case. At the same time the burden of climate change may lead to an additional 25 million people at risk from coastal flooding and as many as 3 billion people potentially at risk from water shortage.
- By comparison, limiting the increase in global temperatures to 1 degree Celsius would reduce many of the potential impacts. For example the additional number of people at risk of malaria would be reduced to around 220 million, with those at risk of water shortage being reduced to around 2 billion.
A similar story is portrayed for the 2080s:
- If temperatures were to increase by more than 3 degrees Celsius by the 2080s, the impact could be even worse: an estimated additional 85 million at risk of hunger coupled with a further 85 million at risk from coastal flooding. The additional number of people at risk of malaria would be more than 300 million and those placed at risk of water shortage may well exceed 3.5 billion due to the impact of climate change.
- Reducing the magnitude of warming to 2 degrees Celsius has the potential to reduce the additional number at risk of hunger to around 50 million people and those at risk from coastal flooding to around 25 million. The estimate of additional people at risk of malaria falls by 100 million people while 1 billion less people would potentially be at risk from water shortage.
"Our research also shows that mitigation alone will not solve the problem of climate change, but it can buy time for us to adapt, for example through improved technology and management of the impacts," said Professor Parry.
Professor Parry will be presenting the results of his research at "Climate Change: what we know and what we need to know", a Royal Society discussion meeting being held on Wednesday 12 and Thursday 13 December. They are also being published in the scientific journal Global Environmental Change.
East Anglia, University of
- In the 2050s, it is estimated that a 2 degrees Celsius increase in global temperatures would cause in excess of 250 million additional people to be placed at risk of malaria than would otherwise be the case. At the same time the burden of climate change may lead to an additional 25 million people at risk from coastal flooding and as many as 3 billion people potentially at risk from water shortage.
- By comparison, limiting the increase in global temperatures to 1 degree Celsius would reduce many of the potential impacts. For example the additional number of people at risk of malaria would be reduced to around 220 million, with those at risk of water shortage being reduced to around 2 billion.
A similar story is portrayed for the 2080s:
- If temperatures were to increase by more than 3 degrees Celsius by the 2080s, the impact could be even worse: an estimated additional 85 million at risk of hunger coupled with a further 85 million at risk from coastal flooding. The additional number of people at risk of malaria would be more than 300 million and those placed at risk of water shortage may well exceed 3.5 billion due to the impact of climate change.
- Reducing the magnitude of warming to 2 degrees Celsius has the potential to reduce the additional number at risk of hunger to around 50 million people and those at risk from coastal flooding to around 25 million. The estimate of additional people at risk of malaria falls by 100 million people while 1 billion less people would potentially be at risk from water shortage.
"Our research also shows that mitigation alone will not solve the problem of climate change, but it can buy time for us to adapt, for example through improved technology and management of the impacts," said Professor Parry.
Professor Parry will be presenting the results of his research at "Climate Change: what we know and what we need to know", a Royal Society discussion meeting being held on Wednesday 12 and Thursday 13 December. They are also being published in the scientific journal Global Environmental Change.
East Anglia, University of
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