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Living In A Time Of Plague: The Population Biology Of Emerging And Re-emerging Pathogens - Philosophical Transactions Of The Royal Society Of London Series B Vol. 356, No. 1411. Cover Date: 29 July 2001

July 15, 2001

LIVING IN A TIME OF PLAGUE: THE POPULATION BIOLOGY OF EMERGING AND RE-EMERGING PATHOGENS

"We are living in a time of plague: infectious diseases continue to exert a huge toll in human and animal lives and suffering," says Professor Mark Woolhouse. "New diseases continue to emerge and medicine and veterinary medicine are failing to keep up."

New or resurgent pathogens cause many diseases of huge importance for human health and animal health. They are responsible for a significant proportion of the 14 million deaths annually due to infectious diseases. In recent
decades new, or newly recognised human pathogens have been reported at the rate of around one per year. High profile examples of these 'emerging' and 're-emerging' pathogens include HIV, Lyme disease and BSE.

Some 1415 species of infectious organisms known to be pathogenic to humans have been identified and are listed and analysed for the first time in a review paper by Taylor et al in this issue. Of these pathogens 868 (61%)
are zoonotic - that is they can be transmitted between animals and humans. 175 pathogenic species are associated with diseases considered to be emerging - of these 75% are zoonotic.

Two further review papers look at emerging diseases of humans and their domesticated animals (Cleaveland et al) and emerging pathogens of wild animals (Dobson et al).

Although there is a large and fast-growing literature on emerging diseases most of this work is essentially descriptive and crucially interest in an emerging pathogen is usually triggered by the first incidence in humans.
There have been few attempts to generate and formally test hypotheses as to why certain pathogens have 'emerged'.

The articles in this Special Issue of Transactions B illustrate various approaches to a more rigorous analysis of 'emergence'. These include identifying risk factors for emergence in general, using genetics to trace the origins of emerging pathogens, identifying proximate factors leading to the emergence of particular pathogens, and characterising the dynamics of emerging pathogens.

Papers include work on The Epidemiology of HIV in South Africa (Williams & Gouws) and The Early Effects of Climate Change (Shilova).

Multidisciplinary approach
"The contributors to this Special Issue include not just medical scientists and veterinarians, but also molecular biologists, population biologists and mathematicians - illustrating the multi-disciplinary, collaborative approach
that will perhaps provide the new thinking needed to meet one of the 21st century's most important challenges" says Prof. Mark Woolhouse.

Complete list of paper titles for Philosophical Transactions B Volume 356,
number 1411 with main contact authors.

Preface pg# 0981
Professor Mark EJ Woolhouse
Centre for Tropical and Veterinary Medicine, University of Edinburgh, UK
Dr Chris Dye
Communicable Diseases, World Health Organisation, Geneva, Switzerland

Risk factors for human disease emergence pg# 0983
Dr Louise H Taylor
Centre for Tropical and Veterinary Medicine, University of Edinburgh, UK

Diseases of humans and their domestic mammals: pathogen characteristics, host range and the risk of emergence pg# 0991
Dr Sarah C Cleaveland
Centre for Tropical and Veterinary Medicine, University of Edinburgh, UK

Emerging infectious pathogens of wildlife pg# 1001
Professor Andy P Dobson
Princeton University, USA

Reconstructing the origins of human hepatitis viruses pg# 1013
Dr Peter Simmonds
Lab for Clinical and Molecular Virology, University of Edinburgh, UK

Acquisition of virulence-associated factors by the enteric pathogens Escherichia coli and Salmonella enterica pg# 1027
Dr J Wain
Dept Biochemistry, Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine,London, UK

The population genetics of Trypanosoma brucei and the origin of human infectivity pg# 1035
Dr CMR Turner
Division of Infection & Immunity, University of Glasgow, UK

The shifting landscape of tick-borne zoonoses: tick-borne encephalitis and Lyme borreliosis in Europe pg# 1045
Dr Sarah E Randolph
Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, UK

Early effects of climate change: do they include changes in vector-borne disease? pg# 1057
Dr R Sari Kovats
Dept of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, UK

The resurgence of tuberculosis in Russia pg# 1069
Dr Chris Dye
Communicable Diseases, World Health Organisation, Geneva, Switzerland

The Epidemiology of HIV in South Africa pg# 1077
Dr BG Williams
Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, Johannesburg, South Africa

The emergence of rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus - will a non-pathogenic strain protect the UK? pg# 1087
Dr PJ White
Institute of Biological Science, University of Stirling, UK

Monitoring and surveillance for rare health-related events - a review from the veterinary perspective pg# 1097
Dr Marcus G Doherr
Dept of Clinical Veterinary Medicine, University of Bern, Switzerland


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