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Printer Friendly Print Human Papilloma virus as a predictor of cervical cancer

Human Papilloma virus as a predictor of cervical cancer

June 22, 2000

Two studies published in this week's issue of THE LANCET suggest that the detection of the amount of human papillomavirus (HPV) could help identify women at risk of cervical cancer. Infection with certain types of HPV - which is common among young women - increases the risk of cervical cancer.


However, less than 1% of young women positive for cancer-related types of HPV develop the disease. Agnetha Josefsson and colleagues from Uppsala University, Sweden, and a collaborating group from the Karolinska Institute, Stockholm, Sweden, investigated whether the amount of HPV DNA is a useful predictor of progression to cervical cancer.




They estimated the amount of HPV 16 DNA in 478 women with cervical cancer, and 608 individually matched controls. The investigators studied multiple smears (total 3835 archived samples) from each woman, taken over periods of up to 26 years, that covered normal cytology to development of cervical cancer. The risk of cervical cancer increased with the amount of HPV 16 DNA.

Analysis of the first smear from each woman, collected on average nearly 8 years before cancer diagnosis, showed that women with the 20% highest amount of HPV 16 DNA were at a 60-fold higher risk of developing cervical cancer than women negative for HPV 16.

They conclude that analysis of the amount of HPV DNA can predict cancer risk at a stage when current screening methods are uninformative; and that testing for the amount of HPV 16 DNA during gynaecological health checks might improve the ability to distinguish between infections that have a high or low risk of progressing into cervical cancer.

In the second study, Dr Nathalie Ylitalo from the Karolinska Institute and the same investigators from the first study, concluded that cervical cancer associated with HPV 16 occurs mainly in HPV-16-positive women who have consistently high viral loads long term. They did a case-control study of women participating in cytological screening in Sweden, and used a sensitive measurement to estimate HPV 16 viral load in multiple smears for each woman, taken during a period of up to 26 years before diagnosis. 2081 smears from 478 cases and 1754 smears from 608 controls were tested; among cases, the investigators found a consistently increased load of HPV 16 13 years or more before diagnosis, and when many smears were still cytologically normal. Women with high HPV 16 viral loads were at least 30 times more likely to develop cervical cancer than HPV-16-negative women more than a decade before diagnosis. About a quarter of women with a high viral load before age 25 developed cervical cancer within 15 years.

The investigators conclude that women at high risk could be identified by use of a quantitative HPV test in addition to cytological screening. In an accompanying Commentary (p 2179), Carolyn Johnston from the university of Michigan, USA, raises a number of questions arising from these two studies: 'What should be done for these ostensibly high-risk women, once they are identified? Since there is currently no vaccine or treatment for latent HPV infections, are these women candidates for chemoprevention trials? Considering accessibility, cost, and positive-predictive value, to what population should viral tests be applied to make the greatest impact?' Finally, she comments that the question of whether any substantial improvements can be made to current cervical screening programmes has yet to be answered.

Lancet



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