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Earth, Wind and Volcanoes - Disaster Science

October 26, 1999

Ash with Altitude
"Volcanic ash, ejected into the stratosphere and spread horizontally by the winds, can cause serious damage to aircraft engines and sensors," says Dr Charles Sprinkle of the US National Weather Service. Modern jet engines operate at such high temperatures that volcanic ash ingested can melt, stick to the turbines and make them stall. With many commercial aircraft now powered by just two engines, volcanic eruptions pose a greater threat to aviation than ever before.

The house that won't fall down
"Survival or failure of housing is a key factor determining the severity of a natural disaster and the ability of a community to recover," says Professor Alan Davenport of the University of Western Ontario. In a keynote speech he will look at how we can make houses hazard resistant - this means regulation as well as technical improvement.

Watching volcanoes cough
"Studying volcanoes is a bit like a doctor investigating a human patient, except that we can't tell a volcano when to 'breathe deeply' or 'cough' for our tests," says Dr Chris Newhall of the US Geological Survey. "Nor can we see inside a volcano, so our forecasts of eruptions can be very uncertain." He will talk about the problems of getting accurate eruption forecasts in time to arrange an evacuation, often from highly populated areas.

Storm Force
Scientists now understand tropical cyclones much better than they did 20 years ago. Professor Johnny Chan of the City University of Hong Kong will talk about some of the new findings, such as how cyclones respond to the earth's rotation and their immediate environment.

Did the earth move?
"Until recently, most seismic design codes were rather conventional, bearing only a loose link with the physical phenomenon they were meant to counter," says Paolo Pinto, Professor of Earthquake Engineering at the University of Rome. In the last 15 years Europe has pioneered the introduction of far more sophisticated codes, based on new techniques like pseudo-dynamic testing, which simulates the response of whole buildings during earthquakes.

Water, water nowhere
"Drought should no longer come as a surprise," says Dr Tom Downing of Oxford University's Environmental Change Unit. "Unlike many climatic and natural hazards there should be time ot implement contingency responses, but few integrated landscape models realistically portray the interactions of drought in different sectors."

ends

Royal Academy of Engineering

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