 |
|
New Models of Weather Pattern
December 12, 2005For a mathematician, Joseph Biello spends a lot of time thinking about the weather. But the UC Davis assistant professor isn't looking out the office window. He is using mathematical theory to build a model of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, a tropical weather pattern that influences drought and rainfall in the western U.S.
The Madden-Julian Oscillation was discovered in 1972 when researchers looked closely at meteorological data. It lasts 30 to 60 days and appears as clusters of tropical thunderstorms over the Indian Ocean before sweeping eastward into the Pacific, where it dissipates.
Measured in weeks, the Madden-Julian Oscillation lies in a gray area between short-term weather forecasts and long-term climate studies, said Bryan Weare, a professor of meteorology at UC Davis who also studies the phenomenon. A better understanding of the weather pattern would help with medium-range weather and climate forecasting.
Weare is trying to understand, for example, the conditions that cause the oscillation to begin over the Indian Ocean. Once the oscillation is under way, you can use it to make predictions about weather phenomena over a month or so, he said. But how it occurs in the first place is not well understood. So far, his work supports theories that link surface moisture over the ocean to thunderstorms, he said.
The phenomenon has subtle effects on weather in the U.S. There is a link between days of very intense rainfall on the West Coast and rainfall associated with a Madden-Julian Oscillation near the equator, Weare said. On the other hand, Biello said that there also seems to be a link between a strong oscillation and a general drought on the West Coast.
So far this winter, the Madden-Julian Oscillation appears to be weak, according to data from the National Weather Service. But the oscillation can occur several times over the winter months.
To understand the weather, you have to look at processes at vastly different scales of space and time, Biello said.
"To understand the Earth, you have to understand raindrops," he said. Biello's specialty is to build mathematical models that incorporate these different scales. Often, weather and climate models divide the planet into a grid of squares, kilometers across, and look at how those squares interact. But that means making assumptions about what is going on within the squares, Biello said.
UC Davis
Weare is trying to understand, for example, the conditions that cause the oscillation to begin over the Indian Ocean. Once the oscillation is under way, you can use it to make predictions about weather phenomena over a month or so, he said. But how it occurs in the first place is not well understood. So far, his work supports theories that link surface moisture over the ocean to thunderstorms, he said.
The phenomenon has subtle effects on weather in the U.S. There is a link between days of very intense rainfall on the West Coast and rainfall associated with a Madden-Julian Oscillation near the equator, Weare said. On the other hand, Biello said that there also seems to be a link between a strong oscillation and a general drought on the West Coast.
So far this winter, the Madden-Julian Oscillation appears to be weak, according to data from the National Weather Service. But the oscillation can occur several times over the winter months.
To understand the weather, you have to look at processes at vastly different scales of space and time, Biello said.
"To understand the Earth, you have to understand raindrops," he said. Biello's specialty is to build mathematical models that incorporate these different scales. Often, weather and climate models divide the planet into a grid of squares, kilometers across, and look at how those squares interact. But that means making assumptions about what is going on within the squares, Biello said.
UC Davis
Deadly heat waves are becoming more frequent in California
From mid July to early August 2006, a heat wave swept through the southwestern United States. Temperature records were broken at many locations and unusually high humidity levels for this typically arid region led to the deaths of more than 600 people, 25,000 cattle and 70,000 poultry in California alone.
NASA data show some African drought linked to warmer Indian Ocean
A new study, co-funded by NASA, has identified a link between a warming Indian Ocean and less rainfall in eastern and southern Africa. Computer models and observations show a decline in rainfall, with implications for the region's food security.
More Weather Pattern Current Events and Weather Pattern News Articles
![Used M-65 Camouflage Pattern Cold Weather Field Jacket Coat; Size Medium Short [Chest 37 to 41 in.]](http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/51DPuzS24mL._SL160_.jpg) |
Used M-65 Camouflage Pattern Cold Weather Field Jacket Coat; Size Medium Short [Chest 37 to 41 in.] by Golden MFG. Co. |
 |
Pacific Northwest Weather: But My Barometer Says Fair! : A Look at Those Changing and Peculiar Weather Patterns in the Pacific Northwest, Large and Small by George R. Miller (Author) Well-known Oregon meteorologist George Miller explains the unexplainable--the weather of the Pacific Northwest. Miller does an excellent job of making a complicated subject easy for all to understand in this interesting book. The climate of the Pacific Northwest is as broad and varied as is found anywhere in the world-from dry eastern sections to cool and wet western regions. Pacific Northwest Weather explores the reasons for this, offering an in-depth look into those peculiarities specific to Pacific Northwest weather. Written and designed for the layperson, as well as a basic text in meteorology this book explains how weather occurs on a global scale down to the small-scale way in which your campfire smoke drifts. With interesting references to past storms, like the infamous... |
 |
(Hurricane) The Formal Weather Pattern Something Corporate (Primary Contributor) |
 |
Flowers Pant & Top Outfit by Baby's Own - Pink - 3 Mths by Baby's Own |
 |
Turkish Pattern Reversible All-Weather Floor Rug - (94L x 6'W) Indoor / Outdoor (RUST) by Gaiam Make any room, whether indoors or out, that much more inviting. Our recycled plastic floor mats are handcrafted by Thai artisans who receive a fair wage for their craft. Made entirely from spent soda bottles, the durable multicolored polypropylene strands stand up to foot traffic in mudrooms, kitchens, or anywhere else there are plenty of comings and goings. No maintenance is required only a spray from your hose. Reversible. Available in Rust. 4'L x 6'W. (Coordinating Rust Mat in size 9'L x 6'W SOLD SEPARATELY). Made in Thailand. |
 |
MODERN CHIC HARD CASE FLAT OPERA WALLET BY DESIGNSK by DesignSK Our flat wallet clutch is stylish and trendy for all occasions, including parties. It is easy to use and carries everything from cash to a checkbook. It can be used without a purse or can be put in a purse. A multi-purpose wallet that fits everything all-in-one!! |
 |
Unpredictable Directed By: Rob Lieberman Also With: Jaime Paglia (Producer), Charlie Craig (Producer) |
 |
Understanding Weather: Winds (Home Use) In training for membership in the Weather Bureau of Investigation, Wesley, an animated character, has been asked to study wind - its creation and typical patterns of movement. Being a curious investigator, Wesley wants to know what gets wind blowing in the first place. His instructor deftly demonstrates how the meeting of air masses with different air temperatures can start air moving. Through his natural curiosity, Wesley and his young viewers come to understand that the great bands of wind that circle the globe are actually very predictable. Part of the "Understanding Weather" series, which features Wesley, an animated, curious, somewhat daring young fellow, who makes weather fun and comprehensible for even the youngest viewers. Produced by Bill Walker Productions. A Coronet release.... |
 |
Gaiam Recycled Plastic Reversible All-Weather Indoor/Outdoor Rug (9'L x 6'W) Aqua & Orange Turkish Pattern by Gaiam Make any room, whether indoors or out, that much more inviting. Our recycled plastic floor mats are handcrafted by Thai artisans who receive a fair wage for their craft. Made entirely from spent soda bottles, the durable multicolored polypropylene strands stand up to foot traffic in mudrooms, kitchens, or anywhere else there are plenty of comings and goings. No maintenance is required only a spray from your hose. Reversible. Available in Aqua & Orange. 9'L x 6'W. Made in Thailand. Features: Indoor/outdoor rug is crafted by hand of recycled plastic soda bottles by fair trade artisans. Features the opposite color pattern on the reverse side flip it whichever way you want! The rug has a smooth feel, like a woven grass or bamboo mat but softer and longer lasting. ... |
 |
Plantation Patterns Red Stripe Throw Pillow - Set/2 by Plantation Patterns Miniature Plate of 2 Candied Apples with nuts. Measures: 1 inch wide. Candied Apples are made out of fimo clay and the plate is porcelain. Extremely Realistic!!! |
| © 2010 BrightSurf.com |