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While Concerned, Most Americans Do Not Expect Widespread Human Cases of Avian Flu in U.S. in the Next Year

February 24, 2006

Boston, MA - The latest national poll conducted by the Harvard School of Public Health (HSPH) Project on the Public and Biological Security finds that at the moment, the majority of the American public is concerned about the threat of avian flu, but only a small proportion is very concerned. However, should cases of avian flu emerge in poultry or humans in this country, the public reaction could lead to significant disruption of the economy and the health care system.

To see the figures related to this poll, visit http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/press/releases/blendon/Avian_Flu_Charts.ppt
To see the topline, visit http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/press/releases/blendon/Avian_Flu_Release_Topline.doc

Concern about Avian Flu
More than half of Americans (57%) report that they are concerned about the potential spread of bird flu in the United States (Figure 1). However, only 15% are very concerned at the moment. A higher proportion of African Americans report that they are concerned about this than whites (70% versus 54%). Similarly, the majority of Americans are not currently concerned that they or a family member will get avian flu within the next twelve months; only one in five (21%) people are worried about this possibility (Figure 2). Six in ten people are concerned about a pandemic outbreak of avian flu, that is, an outbreak in many countries (62%), but only 20% are very concerned. In addition, the American public does not believe avian flu will ultimately spread widely among wild birds (only 28% think so), poultry (24%), or humans in the United States (14%) in the next 12 months. (Figure 3)

If the U.S. were to experience human cases of the avian flu virus currently circulating in Asia, there would be significant public reaction. If such cases were to occur in their state, most people said that they would reduce or avoid travel (75%), avoid public events (71%), try to get a prescription for Tamiflu or other antiviral drugs (68%), and stay at home and keep their children at home while the outbreak lasted (68%). (Figure 4)

"If the public were to respond this way to human cases in their state, it would likely slow the spread of the disease, but it would also have major impact on the state's economy and health care system," said Robert J. Blendon, Professor of Health Policy and Political Analysis at HSPH. "Because of this, it is important to prepare for a prompt and effective public health response."

As a result of growing reports of avian flu outbreaks in Asia and Europe, the survey asked Americans what they would do if avian flu were to spread to poultry in the U.S. The survey found that an outbreak of avian flu in poultry in the U.S. would have strong effects on the public's willingness to eat poultry. Nearly half (46%) of respondents who eat chicken or other poultry said that they would stop eating it if such cases were reported. (Figure 5)

"Should there be cases of flu in chickens here, it could lead to a substantial reduction in the consumption of chicken, which would adversely affect the U.S. poultry industry," said Blendon. "Public education regarding the safety of cooked chicken could help prevent this problem.\\\

Harvard School of Public Health