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Disease-impact models may rely on incorrect assumptions
April 13, 2006Even when we know how a disease affects individual animals, it is challenging to predict what impact it will have on the whole population, and yet predicting how disease affects a population is a primary concern for wildlife conservation and even public health. In a new study from the May issue of American Naturalist, Anna E. Jolles (Princeton University and University of Groningen), Rampal S. Etienne (University of Groningen), and Han Olff (University of Groningen), contest two assumptions commonly present in models that try to predict how individual disease will impact populations.
Many models assume that disease acts independently of other causes of death. However, the researchers point out that it is possible for disease to kill those that are already doing poorly and would have died of starvation or been killed by predators, for example. Second, disease models usually assume constant environments, free from changes in food availability or catastrophic disturbances, such as drought or wildfires.
The researchers tested the assumptions by gathering field data on a herd of African buffalo struck by tuberculosis and following them through different conditions, including a devastating drought. They found that tuberculosis does explain increased mortality and decreased fecundity in some prime-aged buffalo, but older buffalo reflect the competing risks, and the increased survival and greater fecundity of buffalo in the herd without tuberculosis may compensate for some disease-related losses to the herd.
"Pathogens and parasites can have drastic effects, reducing survival or reproduction in infected hosts," write the authors. But they warn against drawing potentially misleading conclusions that may incorrectly influence how we think about epidemics-particularly chronic infections of long-lived hosts.
University of Chicago Press Journals
"Pathogens and parasites can have drastic effects, reducing survival or reproduction in infected hosts," write the authors. But they warn against drawing potentially misleading conclusions that may incorrectly influence how we think about epidemics-particularly chronic infections of long-lived hosts.
University of Chicago Press Journals
Disease Affects Current Events and Disease Affects News RSSWidely used cholesterol-lowering drug may prevent progression
Simvastatin, a commonly used, cholesterol-lowering drug, may prevent Parkinson's disease from progressing further. Neurological researchers at Rush University Medical Center conducted a study examining the use of the FDA-approved medication in mice with Parkinson's disease and found that the drug successfully reverses the biochemical, cellular and anatomical changes caused by the disease.
Surprising rate of recurring heart attacks, strokes globally
Despite many medicines and other treatments for patients with vascular disease, a large international study shows these patients have a surprisingly high rate of recurring events such as strokes, heart attacks and hospitalizations as well as mortality.
Bone's material flaws lead to disease
The weak tendons and fragile bones characteristic of osteogenesis imperfecta, or brittle bone disease, stem from a genetic mutation that causes the incorrect substitution of a single amino acid in the chain of thousands of amino acids making up a collagen molecule, the basic building block of bone and tendon.
Limited data suggest possible association between Agent Orange exposure
A new report from the Institute of Medicine finds suggestive but limited evidence that exposure to Agent Orange and other herbicides used during the Vietnam War is associated with an increased chance of developing ischemic heart disease and Parkinson's disease for Vietnam veterans.
Experimental Parkinson's therapy may have robust weight-loss effect
A growth factor used in clinical experiments to rescue dying brain cells in Parkinson patients may cause unwanted weight loss if delivered to specific areas of the brain, according to University of Florida researchers in the March online edition of Molecular Therapy.
Case Western Reserve professor helps control infectious diseases with models and math
Can an algebraic equation hold the secret to eradicating malaria or schistosomiasis? A Case Western Reserve University mathematics professor is utilizing the combination of algorithms and models in an effort to assist his medical colleagues in the fight against infectious diseases.
Studies examine quality of care for hospitalized sickle cell disease patients
A study assessing the quality of care for patients with sickle cell disease in a variety of hospital settings will be presented at a press conference on Saturday, December 6, at 9:30 a.m., during the 50th Annual Meeting of the American Society of Hematology in San Francisco, CA.
Interferon as long-term treatment for hepatitis C not effective, report HALT-C researchers
Use of the drug interferon as a long-term maintenance strategy to slow the progression of liver disease associated with the hepatitis C virus is ineffective, UT Southwestern Medical Center researchers and their colleagues from nine other institutions have found in a multicenter study.
Lack of vitamin D linked to Parkinson's disease
A majority of Parkinson's disease patients had insufficient levels of vitamin D in a new study from Emory University School of Medicine.
Study provides insight on a common heart rhythm disorder
University of Iowa researchers and colleagues in France have identified a gene variant that causes a potentially fatal human heart rhythm disorder called sinus node disease.
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