More fires, droughts and floods predictedAugust 15, 2006New warning as climate temperatures increase As temperatures rise with global warming, an increased risk of forest fires, droughts and flooding is predicted for the next 200 years by climate scientists from the University of Bristol, UK. Despite the commitment we have already to global warming, even if we stopped emitting greenhouse gases now the researchers predict that Eurasia, eastern China, Canada, Central America, and Amazonia are at risk of forest loss (up to 30% probability for a global warming of less then 2¡Ã†C and increasing to more than 60% for a warming of more than 3¡Ã†C), while the far north, Amazonia and many semi-arid regions will become more susceptible to wildfires.
Less freshwater availability, and with it more intense droughts, are likely to occur in West Africa, Central America, southern Europe and the eastern USA. Other regions, particularly areas north of 50¢™N, tropical Africa and northwest South America, will be at significant risk of excessive runoff as trees are lost, increasing the chances of flooding as temperatures rise. The researchers also found that if the temperature increase is more than 3¡Ã†C, land carbon sinks could release their stored carbon, starting a positive feedback loop that would increase atmospheric carbon dioxide. Marko Scholze, lead author on the paper published in PNAS this week, said: "Most importantly we show the steeply increasing risks, and increasingly large areas affected, associated with higher warming levels. This analysis represents a considerable step forward for discussions about 'dangerous' climate change and its avoidance." The team from QUEST (Quantifying and Understanding the Earth System, a project funded by the Natural Environment Research Council and based at Bristol University), with a colleague from the University of Southampton, quantified the risks of climate-induced changes in key ecosystem processes, using novel methods. They gathered results from more than 50 climate model simulations to calculate these risks and then grouped the results according to varying amounts of global warming: less than 2¡Ã†C, 2-3¡Ã†C, and more than 3¡Ã†C. For each of the temperature groups they show the probability of shifts in forest cover and the areas which exceed the natural variability in wildfire frequency or freshwater supply for the coming 200 years. University of Bristol Science News and Science Current Events Tag Cloud This tag cloud is a visual representation of term frequencies of random science news topics with common terms grouped together and emphasized by their display size. Pneumococcal Disease Lifespan Oral Cancer Signaling Pathway Cerebral Malaria Helicobacter pylori Astrocytes Clinical Trial West Nile Virus Deforestation Fat Cells Cocaine Addiction Carbon Genome Diamond Penguins Calorie restriction Salmonella Heart Failure Laser Stroke Damage Botox Cleft Palate Nicotine Dependence Ovarian Tissue
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Related Global Warming Current Events and Global Warming News Articles Desert dust alters ecology of Colorado alpine meadows Accelerated snowmelt--precipitated by desert dust blowing into the mountains--changes how alpine plants respond to seasonal climate cues that regulate their life cycles. Your own private global warming A group of researchers from the British Antarctic Survey have collected individuals from a wide range of species commonly found in Antarctic waters and subjected them to increasing levels of water temperature to learn how each species is prepared to cope with the conditions that they are likely to experience in the future. Iowa State researchers contribute climate model to study that finds some winds decreasing Declining wind speeds in parts of the United States could impact more than the wind power industry, say Iowa State University climate researchers. Dry autumns and winters may lead to fewer tornadoes in the spring, says UGA researcher Global warming will likely mean more unpredictable weather, scientists say, and a new study by researchers at the University of Georgia pins down, possibly for the first time, how drought conditions in an area's fall and winter may effect tornado activity the following spring. Close relationship between past warming and sea-level rise In a paper in Nature Geoscience, a team from the National Oceanography Centre, Southampton (NOCS), along with colleagues from Tübingen (Germany) and Bristol presents a novel continuous reconstruction of sea level fluctuations over the last 520 thousand years. Corals face 'a stormy future' As global warming whips up more powerful and frequent hurricanes and storms, the world's coral reefs face increased disruption to their ability to breed and recover from damage. GEN reports on alternative feedstocks for ethanol production Scientists say they are forging ahead in developing replacements for petrochemical fuels that will be cost-competitive and renewable while having a minimal impact on the environment, reports Genetic Engineering & Biotechnology News (GEN). Ice Sheets Can Retreat Modern glaciers, such as those making up the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, are capable of undergoing periods of rapid shrinkage or retreat, according to new findings by paleoclimatologists at the University at Buffalo. New tracking approach will help protect polar bears A new approach to tracking polar bears, developed by Queen's University researchers, will shed more light on the potentially endangered Arctic animal and help boost the economy of Canada's north. Sudden collapse in ancient biodiversity: Was global warming the culprit? Scientists have unearthed striking evidence for a sudden ancient collapse in plant biodiversity. A trove of 200 million-year-old fossil leaves collected in East Greenland tells the story, carrying its message across time to us today. More Global Warming Current Events and Global Warming News Articles |
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