Human activities are boosting ocean temperatures in areas where hurricanes form, new study findsSeptember 12, 2006BOULDER - Rising ocean temperatures in key hurricane breeding grounds of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans are due primarily to human-caused increases in greenhouse gas concentrations, according to a study published online in the September 11 issue of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS). Using 22 different computer models of the climate system, Benjamin Santer and six other atmospheric scientists from the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, together with Tom Wigley, Gerald Meehl, and Warren Washington from the Boulder-based National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and scientists from eight other research centers, have shown that the warming sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of the tropical Atlantic and Pacific oceans over the last century is linked to human activities. NCAR's primary sponsor is the National Science Foundation. "We've used virtually all the world's climate models to study the causes of SST changes in hurricane formation regions," Santer says. Research published during the past year has uncovered evidence of a link between rising ocean temperatures and increases in hurricane intensity. This has raised concerns about the causes of the rising temperatures, particularly in parts of the Atlantic and Pacific where hurricanes and other tropical cyclones form. Previous efforts to understand the causes of changes in SSTs have focused on temperature changes averaged over very large ocean areas, such as the entire Atlantic or Pacific basins. The new research specifically targets SST changes in much smaller hurricane formation regions. For the period 1906-2005, the researchers found an 84 percent probability that human-induced factors-primarily an increase in greenhouse gas emissions-account for most of the observed rise in SSTs in the Atlantic and Pacific hurricane formation regions. "The important conclusion is that the observed SST increases in these hurricane breeding grounds cannot be explained by natural processes alone," says Wigley. "The best explanation for these changes has to include a large human influence." Hurricanes are complex phenomena that are influenced by a variety of physical factors, such as SSTs, wind shear, water vapor, and atmospheric stability. The increasing SSTs in the Atlantic and Pacific hurricane formation regions are not the sole determinant of hurricane intensity, but they are likely to be one of the most significant influences. "It is important to note that we expect global temperatures and SSTs to increase even more rapidly over the next century," Wigley says. According to Santer, "In a post-Katrina world, we need to do the best job we possibly can to understand the complex influences on hurricane intensity, and how our actions are changing those influences." National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research |
|||||||||||||||||||||
| Related Hurricane Current Events and Hurricane News Articles Ida now a coastal low assaulting the Mid-Atlantic Ida is one stubborn girl. Her remnants have moved out to sea and reformed as a powerful coastal low pressure system that's been raining on the mid-Atlantic since Tuesday night, November 10. NASA Satellites See Ida Spreading Out Before Landfall NASA's Aqua and Terra satellites are keeping a close eye on Tropical Storm Ida, and both have instruments aboard that show her clouds and rains are already widespread inland over the U.S. Gulf coast states. Typhoon Mirinae is already scaring Philippine residents before Halloween Another typhoon in the northern Philippines really is something to be scared about, and Mirinae is expected to make landfall there in the mid-morning hours on Halloween, October 31. Mirinae intensifying while moving away from the northern Marianas Typhoon Mirinae is moving west and away from the Northern Marianas Islands on a track to a landfall in the Philippines by the weekend. As Mirinae has moved west, NASA's infrared and microwave satellite imagery have seen high, strong thunderstorm development, and a developing eye. Papahanaumokuakea National Monument Facing Hurricane Neki A hurricane warning is in force for the Papahanaumokuakea National Monument from Nihoa Island to French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef. Hurricane conditions likely there by 5 a.m. HST on Friday, October 23. Researchers can predict hurricane-related power outages Using data from Hurricane Katrina and four other destructive storms, researchers from Johns Hopkins and Texas A&M universities say they have found a way to accurately predict power outages in advance of a hurricane. Seismic Noise Unearths Lost Hurricanes Seismologists have found a new way to piece together the history of hurricanes in the North Atlantic - by looking back through records of the planet's seismic noise. It's an entirely new way to tap into the rich trove of seismic records, and the strategy might help establish a link between global warming and the frequency or intensity of hurricanes. Baja California Residents Should Prepare for Hurricane Rick Based on computer forecast models, the residents of southern and central Baja California should prepare over the weekend for now Tropical Storm Rick. Rick formed late yesterday, October 15, and is expected to become a major hurricane over the weekend. Baja watching Tropical Storm Patricia in the latest GOES-11 satellite movie The nineteenth tropical cyclone of the Eastern Pacific formed over this past weekend, and strengthened into Tropical Storm Patricia. NASA satellite reveals a depressed and disorganized Henri Depression happens to everyone, even tropical storms, and Henri is now tropically depressed. NASA satellite imagery has confirmed he's weakened to a tropical depression and he is further expected to degenerate into a remnant low pressure area. More Hurricane Current Events and Hurricane News Articles |
|||||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||||