Human activities are boosting ocean temperatures in areas where hurricanes form, new study findsSeptember 12, 2006BOULDER - Rising ocean temperatures in key hurricane breeding grounds of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans are due primarily to human-caused increases in greenhouse gas concentrations, according to a study published online in the September 11 issue of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS). Using 22 different computer models of the climate system, Benjamin Santer and six other atmospheric scientists from the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, together with Tom Wigley, Gerald Meehl, and Warren Washington from the Boulder-based National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and scientists from eight other research centers, have shown that the warming sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of the tropical Atlantic and Pacific oceans over the last century is linked to human activities. NCAR's primary sponsor is the National Science Foundation.
"We've used virtually all the world's climate models to study the causes of SST changes in hurricane formation regions," Santer says. Research published during the past year has uncovered evidence of a link between rising ocean temperatures and increases in hurricane intensity. This has raised concerns about the causes of the rising temperatures, particularly in parts of the Atlantic and Pacific where hurricanes and other tropical cyclones form. Previous efforts to understand the causes of changes in SSTs have focused on temperature changes averaged over very large ocean areas, such as the entire Atlantic or Pacific basins. The new research specifically targets SST changes in much smaller hurricane formation regions. For the period 1906-2005, the researchers found an 84 percent probability that human-induced factors-primarily an increase in greenhouse gas emissions-account for most of the observed rise in SSTs in the Atlantic and Pacific hurricane formation regions. "The important conclusion is that the observed SST increases in these hurricane breeding grounds cannot be explained by natural processes alone," says Wigley. "The best explanation for these changes has to include a large human influence." Hurricanes are complex phenomena that are influenced by a variety of physical factors, such as SSTs, wind shear, water vapor, and atmospheric stability. The increasing SSTs in the Atlantic and Pacific hurricane formation regions are not the sole determinant of hurricane intensity, but they are likely to be one of the most significant influences. "It is important to note that we expect global temperatures and SSTs to increase even more rapidly over the next century," Wigley says. According to Santer, "In a post-Katrina world, we need to do the best job we possibly can to understand the complex influences on hurricane intensity, and how our actions are changing those influences." National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research | |||||||||||||||||||||
|
Related Hurricane News Articles The cooperative view: New evidence suggests a symbiogenetic origin for the centrosome There are two ways in which cooperation is the theme of a paper published this week by Mark Alliegro and Mary Anne Alliegro, scientists at the Marine Biological Laboratory's (MBL) Josephine Bay Paul Center. No place like home: Katrina's lasting impact New Orleans residents who lost their homes in Hurricane Katrina were over five times more likely to experience serious psychological distress a year after the disaster than those who did not. Scientists debate the accuracy of Al Gore's documentary There is no question that Al Gore's 2006 documentary An Inconvenient Truth is a powerful example of how scientific knowledge can be communicated to a lay audience. What is up for debate is whether it accurately presents the scientific argument that global warming is caused by human activities. How strong is a hurricane? Just listen Knowing how powerful a hurricane is, before it hits land, can help to save lives or to avoid the enormous costs of an unnecessary evacuation. Some MIT researchers think there may be a better, cheaper way of getting that crucial information. Hurricane Forecasters Adopt NCAR Radar Technique The National Hurricane Center will implement a new technique this summer, developed by researchers at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL), to continually monitor landfalling storms in the United States. Scientists learn what's 'up' with a class of retinal cells in mice Harvard University researchers have discovered a new type of retinal cell that plays an exclusive and unusual role in mice: detecting upward motion. The cells reflect their function in the physical arrangement of their dendrites, branch-like structures on neuronal cells that form a communicative network with other dendrites and neurons in the brain. Geotimes: The impending coastal crisis Coastlines are the most dynamic feature on the planet. In the March issue, Geotimes magazine looks into the risks of increased development along our coastlines and what that means for erosion, flooding and future development. Climate change will have a significant impact on transportation infrastructure and operations While every mode of transportation in the U.S. will be affected as the climate changes, potentially the greatest impact on transportation systems will be flooding of roads, railways, transit systems, and airport runways in coastal areas because of rising sea levels and surges brought on by more intense storms, says a new report from the National Research Council. Thousands of Crop Varieties from Four Corners of the World Depart for Arctic Seed Vault At the end of January, more than 200,000 crop varieties from Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Middle East-drawn from vast seed collections maintained by the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR)-will be shipped to a remote island near the Arctic Circle, where they will be stored in the Svalbard Global Seed Vault (SGSV), a facility capable of preserving their vitality for thousands of years. California flood risks are 'disaster waiting to happen,' say University of Maryland engineers While flooding in California's Central Valley is "the next big disaster waiting to happen," water-related infrastructure issues confront almost every community across the country, according to engineers at the University of Maryland's Clark School of Engineering in separate reports to California officials and in the journal Science. More Hurricane News Articles |
|||||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||||