 |
|
Many weather factors needed for accurate climate change predictions
November 07, 2006Current climate change impact models that consider only one weather variable, such as increasing temperature, sometimes spawn unsubstantiated doomsday predictions, according to researchers at Purdue and North Carolina universities.
Climate change studies that assess the full range of interactions among temperature, radiation, precipitation and land use can better aid humans to prepare for extreme shifts in weather patterns, the scientists report in a special issue of the journal Global and Planetary Change.
Climate change impact models often don't consider whether shifting weather will allow for sustainable agriculture, said Dev Niyogi, corresponding author of the journal article and Purdue agronomy, and earth and atmospheric sciences assistant professor.
Niyogi's team looked at weather factor interactions and their impact on two different crop plants by using data for weather and field conditions that occurred in a year considered normal for the test area. By designing a study that changed a number of variables simultaneously, the researchers found that the complex interactions of precipitation with other weather factors had the most impact on the overall health of crops and regional agricultural productivity. They concluded that lack of precipitation will have the most dramatic effect on living conditions in the future.
"Even though the question often posed involves the impact of global warming on agriculture, the real question ought to be 'What is the effect of drought?'" said Niyogi, who also is Indiana state climatologist.
Plants that are stressed due to lack of water threaten the future and sustainability of agricultural crops. Complicating the climate impact on crops is that growing demand for agricultural products also can affect weather patterns, Niyogi said.
"One basic issue we still need to understand is that population growth is a major driver for climate change," he said. "When we have more humans, we'll use more energy and use more landmass."
Land-use shifts can impact temperature and overall climate, as already evident in urban temperatures compared with rural temperatures, Niyogi said. This is a result of weather variable interactions and can be demonstrated in Niyogi's research, which involves interaction of radiation, temperature and precipitation changes.
"When temperature rises, you see more evaporation," Niyogi said. "More evaporation could lead to more clouds. More clouds might lead to changes in radiation. Changes in radiation can impact the amount of convection - the heating of the environment by the rising air. This leads to formation of rain, which can change the soil moisture and temperature again."
Niyogi and his collaborators tried to reproduce how temperature, radiation and precipitation interact and how those interactions impact two types of crops: corn and soybeans. The scientists used data from an area in North Carolina in which they had conducted previous studies. The data were from 1998, when the weather was considered normal for the area.
Niyogi's team ran 25 different climate scenarios on each of the crops in order to assess the effect of various interactions of radiation, temperature and precipitation on corn and soybeans.
The scientists found that radiation could be beneficial in a medium range because it increases the plants' photosynthesis, the process by which plants take energy from the sun to spur growth. However, too much radiation or too little radiation both lowered crop yield because they changed the efficiency of photosynthesis.
Radiation also affected how much water evaporated from the plants. This changed plants' water usage and had an impact on crop yield.
While temperature changes had a more direct effect on crops than did radiation, the researchers found that the impact was dependent on when temperature changes occurred and how long they lasted.
More refined studies need to be done on individual regions of the world to develop resource management and drought plans, according to Niyogi and his research team.
"Right now, we would be in shock if we had a real drought in Indiana," Niyogi said. "We can avoid a drought disaster depending on how we manage our resources based on climate change impacts that consider multiple interactions and vulnerability."
As the population increases, demand for agriculture products increases and regional climates change, management of resources will become even more important.
"As the region and the world brace for the necessity of higher crop yields, the role of weather becomes more critical and needs to be taken into account seriously in developing agronomic plans," Niyogi said.
The other researchers involved with this study were lead author Roberto Mera, a graduate student in Niyogi's lab; and North Carolina State University researchers Fredrick Semazzi, professor of marine, earth and atmospheric sciences and mathematics; Gregory Buol, crop science research scientist; and Gail Wilkerson, professor of crop sciences.
NASA, the National Science Foundation and the U.S. Department of Agriculture provided funding for this research.
Purdue University
Niyogi's team looked at weather factor interactions and their impact on two different crop plants by using data for weather and field conditions that occurred in a year considered normal for the test area. By designing a study that changed a number of variables simultaneously, the researchers found that the complex interactions of precipitation with other weather factors had the most impact on the overall health of crops and regional agricultural productivity. They concluded that lack of precipitation will have the most dramatic effect on living conditions in the future.
"Even though the question often posed involves the impact of global warming on agriculture, the real question ought to be 'What is the effect of drought?'" said Niyogi, who also is Indiana state climatologist.
Plants that are stressed due to lack of water threaten the future and sustainability of agricultural crops. Complicating the climate impact on crops is that growing demand for agricultural products also can affect weather patterns, Niyogi said.
"One basic issue we still need to understand is that population growth is a major driver for climate change," he said. "When we have more humans, we'll use more energy and use more landmass."
Land-use shifts can impact temperature and overall climate, as already evident in urban temperatures compared with rural temperatures, Niyogi said. This is a result of weather variable interactions and can be demonstrated in Niyogi's research, which involves interaction of radiation, temperature and precipitation changes.
"When temperature rises, you see more evaporation," Niyogi said. "More evaporation could lead to more clouds. More clouds might lead to changes in radiation. Changes in radiation can impact the amount of convection - the heating of the environment by the rising air. This leads to formation of rain, which can change the soil moisture and temperature again."
Niyogi and his collaborators tried to reproduce how temperature, radiation and precipitation interact and how those interactions impact two types of crops: corn and soybeans. The scientists used data from an area in North Carolina in which they had conducted previous studies. The data were from 1998, when the weather was considered normal for the area.
Niyogi's team ran 25 different climate scenarios on each of the crops in order to assess the effect of various interactions of radiation, temperature and precipitation on corn and soybeans.
The scientists found that radiation could be beneficial in a medium range because it increases the plants' photosynthesis, the process by which plants take energy from the sun to spur growth. However, too much radiation or too little radiation both lowered crop yield because they changed the efficiency of photosynthesis.
Radiation also affected how much water evaporated from the plants. This changed plants' water usage and had an impact on crop yield.
While temperature changes had a more direct effect on crops than did radiation, the researchers found that the impact was dependent on when temperature changes occurred and how long they lasted.
More refined studies need to be done on individual regions of the world to develop resource management and drought plans, according to Niyogi and his research team.
"Right now, we would be in shock if we had a real drought in Indiana," Niyogi said. "We can avoid a drought disaster depending on how we manage our resources based on climate change impacts that consider multiple interactions and vulnerability."
As the population increases, demand for agriculture products increases and regional climates change, management of resources will become even more important.
"As the region and the world brace for the necessity of higher crop yields, the role of weather becomes more critical and needs to be taken into account seriously in developing agronomic plans," Niyogi said.
The other researchers involved with this study were lead author Roberto Mera, a graduate student in Niyogi's lab; and North Carolina State University researchers Fredrick Semazzi, professor of marine, earth and atmospheric sciences and mathematics; Gregory Buol, crop science research scientist; and Gail Wilkerson, professor of crop sciences.
NASA, the National Science Foundation and the U.S. Department of Agriculture provided funding for this research.
Purdue University
Climate Change Current Events and Climate Change News RSSScientists at UA, collaborating institutions decode maize genome
Scientists from the University of Arizona led by Arizona Genomics Institute director Rod A. Wing and from collaborating institutions have deciphered the complete genetic code of the maize plant for the first time.
ORNL, Los Alamos pioneer new approach to assist scientists, farmers
Sustainable farming, initially adopted to preserve soil quality for future generations, may also play a role in maintaining a healthy climate, according to researchers at the Department of Energy's Oak Ridge and Los Alamos national laboratories.
Research challenges for understanding landscape changes identified
Nine research challenges and four research initiatives that are poised to advance the study of how Earth's landscapes change were unveiled today in a new report by the National Research Council.
Berkeley Lab Lends Expertise to India to Promote Energy Efficiency
ndia may rank only a distant fourth in terms of carbon dioxide emissions, behind China, the United States and Russia, but its rapid economic growth rate coupled with aging and inefficient energy infrastructure suggest dire environmental consequences if "business as usual" continues.
Experts: Failure to focus on farming will undermine global climate agreement and increase hunger
Alarmed by a substantial oversight in the global climate talks leading up to the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen next month, more than 60 of the world's most prominent agricultural scientists and leaders underscored how the almost total absence of agriculture in the agreement could lead to widespread famine and food shortages in the years ahead.
Study: Sea stars bulk up to beat the heat
A new study finds that a species of sea star stays cool using a strategy never before seen in the animal kingdom. The sea stars soak up cold sea water into their bodies during high tide as buffer against potentially damaging temperatures brought about by direct sunlight at low tide.
Emulating Western lifestyles: Consumption and carbon footprints in less industrialized countries
In recent decades, a new global middle class has exploded, with a total population exceeding one billion people. A new study in the Journal of Consumer Research explores the consumption attitudes of some of these members of the "new class."
TEEB report released on the economics of ecosystems and biodiversity for policy makers
Policy makers who factor the planet's multi-trillion dollar ecosystem services into their national and international investment strategies are likely to see far higher rates of return and stronger economic growth in the 21st century.
New Water Management Tool May Help Ease Effects of Drought
Continued improvement of climate forecasts is resulting in better information about what rainfall and streamflow may look like months in advance.
Record highs far outpace record lows across US
Spurred by a warming climate, daily record high temperatures occurred twice as often as record lows over the last decade across the continental United States, new research shows.
More Climate Change Current Events and Climate Change News Articles
 |
Climate Change: Picturing the Science by Gavin Schmidt (Author), Joshua Wolfe (Author), Jeffrey D. Sachs (Foreword) An unprecedented union of scientific analysis and stunning photography illustrating the effects of climate change on the global ecosystem. Going beyond the headlines, this work by leading NASA climate scientist Gavin Schmidt and master photographer Joshua Wolfe illustrates as never before the ramifications of shifting climate. Photographic spreads show retreating glaciers, sinking villages in Alaska’s tundra, and drying lakes. The text follows adventurous scientists through the ice caps at the poles to the coral reefs of the tropical seas. Marshaling data spanning centuries and continents, the book sparkles with cutting-edge research and visual records, including contributions from experts on atmospheric science, oceanography, paleoclimatology, technology, politics, and... |
 |
The Rough Guide to Climate Change, 2nd Edition by Robert Henson (Author) The Rough Guide to Climate Change gives the complete picture of the single biggest issue facing the planet. Cutting a swathe through scientific research and political debate, this completely updated 2nd edition lays out the facts and assesses the options- global and personal- for dealing with the threat of a warming world. The guide looks at the evolution of our atmosphere over the last 4.5 billion years and what computer simulations of climate change reveal about our past, present, and future. This updated edition includes new information from the 2007 report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and an updated politics section to reflect post-Kyoto developments. Discover how rising temperatures and sea levels, plus changes to extreme weather patterns, are already affecting... |
 |
Climate Change: A Multidisciplinary Approach by William James Burroughs (Author) Providing a concise, up-to-date presentation of current knowledge of climate change and its implications for society as a whole, this new edition has been thoroughly updated and extended to include the latest information. The text describes the components of the global climate, considers how the many elements of climate combine to define its behaviour, and reviews how climate change is measured. The author discusses how the causes of climate change can be related to the evidence of change, and modelled to predict future changes. This book is ideally suited for introductory courses in meteorology, oceanography, environmental science, earth science, geography, agriculture and social science. It contains review questions at the end of each chapter to enable readers to monitor their... |
 |
The Science and Politics of Global Climate Change: A Guide to the Debate by Andrew E. Dessler (Author), Edward A. Parson (Author) Climate variability has become the primary environmental concern of the 21st Century. Yet, despite the scientific community's warnings of the imminent dangers of global warming, politicians world-wide have failed to agree on what to do about this potentially devastating environmental problem. This introductory primer informs scientists, policy makers and the general public by clarifying the conflicting claims of the debate. |
 |
What We Know About Climate Change (Boston Review Books) by Kerry Emanuel (Author), Judith A. Layzer (Afterword), William R. Moomaw (Afterword) The vast majority of scientists agree that human activity has significantly increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere—most dramatically since the 1970s. In February 2007 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change found that global warming is "unequivocal" and that human-produced carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are chiefly to blame, to a certainty of more than 90 percent. Yet global warming skeptics and ill-informed elected officials continue to dismiss this broad scientific consensus. In What We Know About Climate Change, MIT atmospheric scientist Kerry Emanuel outlines the basic science of global warming and how the current consensus has emerged. Although it is impossible to predict exactly when the most dramatic effects of global warming will be felt, he argues, we can... |
 |
Climate Change: The Science of Global Warming and Our Energy Future by Edmond A. Mathez (Author) Climate Change is geared toward a variety of students and general readers who seek the real science behind global warming. Exquisitely illustrated, the text introduces the basic science underlying both the natural progress of climate change and the effect of human activity on the deteriorating health of our planet. Noted expert and author Edmond A. Mathez synthesizes the work of leading scholars in climatology and related fields, and he concludes with an extensive chapter on energy production, anchoring this volume in economic and technological realities and suggesting ways to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions. Climate Change opens with the climate system fundamentals: the workings of the atmosphere and ocean, their chemical interactions via the carbon cycle, and the scientific... |
 |
The Ethics of Climate Change: Right and Wrong in a Warming World (Think Now) by James Garvey (Author) The debate about the existence of climate change seems finally at an end. We now have to decide what to do about it. Here, James Garvey argues that the ultimate rationale for action on climate change cannot be simply economic, political, scientific or social, though no doubt our decisions should be informed by such things. Instead, climate change is largely a moral problem. What we should do about it depends on what matters to us and what we think is right.This book is an introduction to the ethics of climate change. It considers a little climate science and a lot of moral philosophy, ultimately finding a way into the many possible positions associated with climate change. It is also a call for action, for doing something about the moral demands placed on both governments and individuals... |
 |
Climate Confusion: How Global Warming Hysteria Leads to Bad Science, Pandering Politicians and Misguided Policies that Hurt the Poor by Roy Spencer (Author) The current frenzy over global warming has galvanized the public and cost taxpayers billons of dollars in federal expenditures for climate research. It has spawned Hollywood blockbusters and inspired major political movements. It has given a higher calling to celebrities and built a lucrative industry for scores of eager scientists. In short, ending climate change has become a national crusade. And yet, despite this dominant and sprawling campaign, the facts behind global warming remain as confounding as ever. In Climate Confusion, distinguished climatologist Dr. Roy Spencer observes that our obsession with global warming has only clouded the issue. Forsaking blindingly technical statistics and doomsday scenarios, Dr. Spencer explains in simple terms how the climate system... |
 |
The Atlas of Climate Change: Mapping the World's Greatest Challenge (Atlas Of... (University of California Press)) by Kirstin Dow (Author), Thomas Downing (Author) Today's headlines and recent events reflect the gravity of climate change. Heat waves, droughts, and floods are bringing death to vulnerable populations, destroying livelihoods, and driving people from their homes. Rigorous in its science and insightful in its message, this atlas examines the causes of climate change and considers its possible impact on subsistence, water resources, ecosystems, biodiversity, health, coastal megacities, and cultural treasures. It reviews historical contributions to greenhouse gas levels, progress in meeting international commitments, and local efforts to meet the challenge of climate change. With more than 50 full-color maps and graphics, this is an essential resource for policy makers, environmentalists, students, and everyone concerned with this... |
 |
National Geographic: Six Degrees Could Change the World Starring: Alec Baldwin Directed By: Ron Bowman In a special broadcast event, National Geographic explores the startling theory that Earths average temperature could rise six degrees Celsius by the year 2100. In this amazing and insightful documentary, National Geographic illustrates, one poignant degree at a time, the consequences of rising temperatures on Earth. Also, learn how existing technologies and remedies can help in the battle to dial back the global thermometer. |
| © 2009 BrightSurf.com |