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Next flu pandemic: What to do until the vaccine arrives?
November 13, 2006Experts believe the world is overdue for influenza pandemic. However, unless effective action against pandemic flu is taken now, we are in "dire straits," according to a paper published in the November 10 issue of Science. The articled titled, "Next Flu Pandemic: What to Do Until the Vaccine Arrives?," calls for research during the regular season flu season to better understand the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing, hand washing, face masks, and the like.
"These are ironically similar to the measures used in 1918 to combat the greatest of all known influenza pandemics, but there's a lot we don't know about what may very well be our best defenses," says lead author Stephen Morse, PhD, associate professor of Clinical Epidemiology in the Department of Epidemiology at Columbia University's Mailman School of Public Health. According to Dr. Morse, unfortunately, there are no readily accessible compendia of best practices or even comprehensive databases of community epidemiologic data, which might help to design the most effective interventions. "As the weather turns cold and the regular flu season is upon us, there is an opportunity to prepare and move ahead with community studies and clinical trials in humans."
How influenza is transmitted, from person to person, whether by large droplets or by fine particles, may seem to be a specialist issue, observes Dr. Morse, but "it has a direct bearing on how far apart people should position themselves to prevent infection and on whether inexpensive face masks might be useful."
Dr. Morse's coauthors are Richard L. Garwin, PhD, IBM Research Laboratories and Paula J. Olsiewski, PhD, of the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation. This spring, the authors organized a workshop on personal and workplace protective measures for pandemic influenza held at the Mailman School of Public Health and funded by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation.
"There are many basic things we don't know about how influenza is transmitted," said Dr. Garwin of IBM. "For example, it appears that a relatively low number of people catch the flu from another person. Breaking the transmission chain with non-pharmacological measures has proved challenging, but the prize is enormous."
Often also neglected, according to the authors, are protective measures that fall between individual protection and the whole population - "the excluded middle"- such as buildings, facilities and smaller areas such as work places and homes. Examples might include improved air-handling systems, room-size fans, portable air-filtration systems, or physical barriers such as room dividers and doors.
"We should systematically address knowledge gaps now during upcoming flu seasons rather than wait to empirically test measures ad hoc when the next pandemic is upon us," says Dr. Morse.
Columbia University's Mailman School of Public Health
Dr. Morse's coauthors are Richard L. Garwin, PhD, IBM Research Laboratories and Paula J. Olsiewski, PhD, of the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation. This spring, the authors organized a workshop on personal and workplace protective measures for pandemic influenza held at the Mailman School of Public Health and funded by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation.
"There are many basic things we don't know about how influenza is transmitted," said Dr. Garwin of IBM. "For example, it appears that a relatively low number of people catch the flu from another person. Breaking the transmission chain with non-pharmacological measures has proved challenging, but the prize is enormous."
Often also neglected, according to the authors, are protective measures that fall between individual protection and the whole population - "the excluded middle"- such as buildings, facilities and smaller areas such as work places and homes. Examples might include improved air-handling systems, room-size fans, portable air-filtration systems, or physical barriers such as room dividers and doors.
"We should systematically address knowledge gaps now during upcoming flu seasons rather than wait to empirically test measures ad hoc when the next pandemic is upon us," says Dr. Morse.
Columbia University's Mailman School of Public Health
Flu Pandemic Current Events and Flu Pandemic News RSSSneezing in times of a flu pandemic
The swine flu (H1N1) pandemic has received extensive media coverage this year. The World Health Organization, in addition to providing frequent updates about cases of infection and death tolls, recommends hyper vigilance in daily hygiene such as frequent hand washing or sneezing into the crook of our arms.
Lessons from flu seasons past
Pregnant women who catch the flu are at serious risk for flu-related complications, including death, and that risk far outweighs the risk of possible side effects from injectable vaccines containing killed virus, according to an extensive review of published research and data from previous flu seasons.
Older Patients with Dementia at Increased Risk for Flu Mortality
An epidemiological study on pneumonia and influenza (P&I) in adults age 65 and over reports that patients with dementia are diagnosed with flu less frequently, have shorter hospital stays, and have a fifty percent higher rate of death than those without dementia.
Triple-Combo Drug Shows Promise Against Antiviral-Resistant Swine Flu, UAB Researcher Says
An experimental drug cocktail that includes three prescriptions now widely available offers the best hope in developing a single agent to treat drug-resistant H1N1 swine flu, says a virology researcher in the University of Alabama Birmingham (UAB) Division of Pediatric Infectious Diseases.
Medical ethics experts identify, address key issues in H1N1 pandemic
The anticipated onset of a second wave of the H1N1 influenza pandemic could present a host of thorny medical ethics issues best considered well in advance, according to the University of Toronto Joint Centre for Bioethics, which today released nine papers for public discussion.
Texas A&M researcher shows possible link between 1918 El Niño and flu pandemic
Research conducted at Texas A&M University casts doubts on the notion that El Niño has been getting stronger because of global warming and raises interesting questions about the relationship between El Niño and a severe flu pandemic 91 years ago.
'Dung of the devil' plant roots point to new swine flu drugs
Scientists in China have discovered that roots of a plant used a century ago during the great Spanish influenza pandemic contains substances with powerful effects in laboratory experiments in killing the H1N1 swine flu virus that now threatens the world.
NIAID scientists study past flu pandemics for clues to future course of 2009 H1N1 virus
A commonly held belief that severe influenza pandemics are preceded by a milder wave of illness arose because some accounts of the devastating flu pandemic of 1918-19 suggested that it may have followed such a pattern.
Avian influenza strain primes brain for Parkinson's disease
At least one strain of the H5N1 avian influenza virus leaves survivors at significantly increased risk for Parkinson's disease and possibly other neurological problems later in life.
Flu mortality formula is potentially misleading, say scientists
A standard calculation used in forecasting potential numbers of deaths during the swine flu pandemic risks misleading healthcare planners by being open to both over- and under-estimation of the true figures.
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