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Innovative Satellite System Proves its Worth with Better Weather Forecasts, Climate Data
December 12, 2006BOULDER-Preliminary findings from a revolutionary satellite system launched earlier this year show that the system can boost the accuracy of forecasts of hurricane behavior, significantly improve long-range weather forecasts, and monitor climate change with unprecedented accuracy.
The set of six microsatellites, launched in April, is probing the atmosphere in ways that have been impossible with previous observing systems. Dubbed COSMIC (Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate), the system is based on a design provided by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR).
Initial results show that the system's unique global coverage provides unprecedented information on the atmosphere's temperature and water vapor structure. Moreover, COSMIC data can be collected above hard-to-reach locations, such as Antarctica and the remote Pacific, which could greatly enhance the global-scale monitoring needed to analyze climate change.
"COSMIC may well be the most accurate, precise, and stable thermometer for measuring global and regional climate change," says UCAR president Richard Anthes. "COSMIC can see through cloud cover and gather highly accurate data through many levels of the atmosphere."
Harnessing GPS signals
COSMIC works by tracking tiny changes in the speed of GPS radio signals. Using these data, scientists can now produce vertical profiles of temperature and water vapor at more than 1,000 points over Earth each day, sampling the troposphere (the atmosphere's "weather layer," closest to Earth's surface) and the stratosphere. By next year, some 2,500 profiles will be produced daily. Higher up, the system measures electron density in the ionosphere, an important observation for space-weather analysis and forecasting.
In a test at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), scientists added COSMIC data to the other weather observations used to kick-start computer forecast models. With the help of COSMIC data, stratospheric temperature forecasts over the Northern Hemisphere improve significantly.
Predictions of hurricanes and typhoons also stand to benefit from COSMIC. A test involving one of the main U.S. forecast models found that the model was able to predict the birth of this year's Hurricane Ernesto two days in advance with COSMIC data. Without the data, the model was unable to predict Ernesto's formation. Tests in Taiwan this year involving Tropical Storm Bilis and other cyclones showed that COSMIC data can reduce errors in track prediction.
A boon to remote regions
In Antarctica, weather forecasts that are vital to international research outposts and other activities should improve, thanks to the wealth and quality of data available through COSMIC. Radiosondes sent aloft by balloons only provide a dozen or so profiles each day above this sparsely populated region, but COSMIC provides hundreds of profiles.
"With COSMIC, Antarctica is no longer a data-void region," says Ying-Hwa "Bill" Kuo, director of COSMIC in UCAR's Office of Programs. "After only a few months, we see strengths and weaknesses in the forecast models that we really have had no way of seeing before."
COSMIC data will also help scientists measure and predict the density of high-altitude electrons associated with damaging solar storms. The altitudes of peak electron density have been difficult to observe and predict, because forecast models have had limited data on the vertical distribution of electrons. "The many thousands of vertical profiles that COSMIC can provide each day on electron density will be extremely useful in correcting the space weather models and their predictions," says COSMIC chief scientist Christian Rocken.
The $100 million COSMIC network is the product of an agreement between the American Institute in Taiwan and the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the United States. COSMIC is known as FORMOSAT-3 in Taiwan. U.S. support for COSMIC is provided by the National Science Foundation, NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the Office of Naval Research. The Jet Propulsion Laboratory developed the GPS receivers used in COSMIC.
National Center for Atmospheric Research
"COSMIC may well be the most accurate, precise, and stable thermometer for measuring global and regional climate change," says UCAR president Richard Anthes. "COSMIC can see through cloud cover and gather highly accurate data through many levels of the atmosphere."
Harnessing GPS signals
COSMIC works by tracking tiny changes in the speed of GPS radio signals. Using these data, scientists can now produce vertical profiles of temperature and water vapor at more than 1,000 points over Earth each day, sampling the troposphere (the atmosphere's "weather layer," closest to Earth's surface) and the stratosphere. By next year, some 2,500 profiles will be produced daily. Higher up, the system measures electron density in the ionosphere, an important observation for space-weather analysis and forecasting.
In a test at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), scientists added COSMIC data to the other weather observations used to kick-start computer forecast models. With the help of COSMIC data, stratospheric temperature forecasts over the Northern Hemisphere improve significantly.
Predictions of hurricanes and typhoons also stand to benefit from COSMIC. A test involving one of the main U.S. forecast models found that the model was able to predict the birth of this year's Hurricane Ernesto two days in advance with COSMIC data. Without the data, the model was unable to predict Ernesto's formation. Tests in Taiwan this year involving Tropical Storm Bilis and other cyclones showed that COSMIC data can reduce errors in track prediction.
A boon to remote regions
In Antarctica, weather forecasts that are vital to international research outposts and other activities should improve, thanks to the wealth and quality of data available through COSMIC. Radiosondes sent aloft by balloons only provide a dozen or so profiles each day above this sparsely populated region, but COSMIC provides hundreds of profiles.
"With COSMIC, Antarctica is no longer a data-void region," says Ying-Hwa "Bill" Kuo, director of COSMIC in UCAR's Office of Programs. "After only a few months, we see strengths and weaknesses in the forecast models that we really have had no way of seeing before."
COSMIC data will also help scientists measure and predict the density of high-altitude electrons associated with damaging solar storms. The altitudes of peak electron density have been difficult to observe and predict, because forecast models have had limited data on the vertical distribution of electrons. "The many thousands of vertical profiles that COSMIC can provide each day on electron density will be extremely useful in correcting the space weather models and their predictions," says COSMIC chief scientist Christian Rocken.
The $100 million COSMIC network is the product of an agreement between the American Institute in Taiwan and the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the United States. COSMIC is known as FORMOSAT-3 in Taiwan. U.S. support for COSMIC is provided by the National Science Foundation, NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the Office of Naval Research. The Jet Propulsion Laboratory developed the GPS receivers used in COSMIC.
National Center for Atmospheric Research
Weather Forecast Current Events and Weather Forecast News RSSStudy: Sea stars bulk up to beat the heat
A new study finds that a species of sea star stays cool using a strategy never before seen in the animal kingdom. The sea stars soak up cold sea water into their bodies during high tide as buffer against potentially damaging temperatures brought about by direct sunlight at low tide.
NASA-enhanced dust storm predictions to aid health community
NASA satellite data can improve forecasts of dust storms in the American Southwest in ways that can benefit public health managers. Scientists announced the finding as a five-year NASA-funded project nears its conclusion.
Method of predicting clear air turbulence could make flights smoother in the future
It comes blasting out of the blue on your airplane flight: sudden bumpiness and sometimes even a violent plummeting. It arrives without warning, and it can be more than frightening, since it causes tens of millions of dollars in injury claims every year.
Forecasting System Provides Flood Warnings to Vulnerable Residents of Bangladesh
As catastrophic floods worsen in Bangladesh, a pilot forecasting program is being used to warn thousands of residents in selected flood-prone regions. The forecasting system was designed by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Georgia Institute of Technology.
Transported Black Carbon a Significant Player in Pacific Ocean Climate
Soot and other particulate pollution from Asian sources make up more than 75 percent of black carbon transported at high altitudes, according to a Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego-led study.
Study shows snowfall hasn't increased over Antarctica in last 50 years
An international effort to determine the variability of recent snowfall over Antarctica shows that there has been no real increase in precipitation over the southernmost continent in the last half-century.
Rutgers/EOHSI Builds Model to Assess World Trade Center Fallout
The environmental and health consequences of the terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center have been the subject of controversy almost from the beginning. Scientists at Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, have created a computerized model that will help public health officials understand the degree of harmful exposure in the immediate aftermath of the attacks.
New research forecasts better weather forecasts
A Purdue University researcher and his team have used improved satellite imaging and powerful computer modeling to more accurately forecast the likelihood and intensity of storms and tornados.
Clearest video of lightning-generated 'sprites' high above thunderstorms captured
Researchers at Duke University's Pratt School of Engineering have captured the best images ever produced of "sprites" - mysterious flashes of light resembling giant undulating jellyfish that can occur above strong thunderstorms - using a high-speed camera that recorded thousands of video frames a second.
***Changed embargo time***Rising sea levels could be 'cancelled out' by increased snowfall
A paper published today in Science shows that the largest ice sheet in the world, the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, is growing due to increased snow fall. This growth partly mitigates the sea level rise caused by melting glaciers in other areas, especially Greenland.
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