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New method provides better earthquake warnings
January 15, 2007The new method of analysis makes it possible to estimate the complete stress tensor and monitor changes in the magnitude of stress and the instability of faults, which roots the analysis in physics in a manner that earthquake methods normally lack. This makes the method more generally valid, thus facilitating efforts to provide warnings.
Another advantage of the new method is that it makes use of micro-tremor data, that is, data for quakes with a magnitude of between -1 and 5, which offer the greatest possible amount of information for the analysis. Tests with Icelandic micro-tremors from 1990 to 2005 yielded excellent results, with the major earthquakes occurring precisely when they were predicted by the stress analysis. This experience from Iceland therefore indicates that the sites of coming earthquakes can be determined years before they occur.
"What is crucial to whether the analysis is reliable is to what extent the small quakes are analyzed," says the scientist behind the method, Ragnar Slunga.
"Especially if the method is to be used to warn people immediately before a coming earthquake, a few days or a few hours before the quake, it's necessary to analyze very minor micro-tremors as well," Slunga continues.
Swedish Research Council
"Especially if the method is to be used to warn people immediately before a coming earthquake, a few days or a few hours before the quake, it's necessary to analyze very minor micro-tremors as well," Slunga continues.
Swedish Research Council
Large earthquakes may broadcast warnings, but is anyone tuning in to listen?
Like geological ninjas, earthquakes can strike without warning. But there may be a way to detect the footfalls of large earthquakes before they strike, alerting their potential victims a week or more in advance. A Stanford professor thinks a method to provide just such warnings may have been buried in the scientific literature for over 40 years.
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