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Sea level on the rise - in real and virtual worlds
February 05, 2007The climate system, and in particular sea level, may be responding more quickly to rising carbon emissions than climate scientists have estimated with climate models.
An international team of climate scientists has cautioned against suggestions that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has previously overestimated the rate of climate change.
The team, from six institutions around the world, reviewed actual observations of carbon dioxide, temperature and sea level from 1990 to 2006 and compared them with projected changes for the same period.
In a review published in the journal Science today, the authors found that carbon dioxide concentration followed the modelled scenarios almost exactly, that global-mean surface temperatures were in the upper part of the range projected by the IPCC, and that observed sea level has been rising faster than the models had projected and closely followed the IPCC Third Assessment Report upper limit of an 88 cm rise between 1990 and 2100.
The scientists noted that because the review period (1990-2006) was short, it would be premature to conclude that sea levels will continue to increase at the same rate in the future. However, they also said their findings show that previous projections have not exaggerated the rate of change but may in some respects have underestimated it.
Measurements of carbon dioxide through facilities such as the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's Cape Grim observatory in Tasmania support the paper's conclusions. The global average temperature estimates are collated separately by NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies in the USA and the Hadley Centre and Climatic Research Unit in the UK. The sea level observations come from both coastal and island tide gauges and data provided by satellites.
Sea levels have risen largely due to warming of the ocean and the consequent thermal expansion and melting of non-polar glaciers and ice caps and the ice sheets of Antarctica and Greenland.
One of the authors of the review, Dr John Church of the Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems CRC and CSIRO, noted that any (or all) of the modelled contributions could be underestimated but that there is most uncertainty about the contribution made by ice-sheet melts. "Models of the potential contribution of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets need to be improved to include the potential of a relatively dynamic response," Dr Church said. This work is a component of the Wealth from Oceans Flagship, an initiative of CSIRO to more broadly understand the impact of marine climate change.
Lead author of the review was Dr Stefan Ramstorf, of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; with contributing authors: Dr Anny Cazenave, Toulouse France; Dr John Church, Antarctic Climate and Ecosystem CRC and CSIRO; Dr James Hansen at NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, USA; Drs Ralph E. Keeling and Richard C.J. Somerville, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UCSD, USA; and, Dr David E. Parker, Hadley Centre, Met Office, UK.
CSIRO Australia
In a review published in the journal Science today, the authors found that carbon dioxide concentration followed the modelled scenarios almost exactly, that global-mean surface temperatures were in the upper part of the range projected by the IPCC, and that observed sea level has been rising faster than the models had projected and closely followed the IPCC Third Assessment Report upper limit of an 88 cm rise between 1990 and 2100.
The scientists noted that because the review period (1990-2006) was short, it would be premature to conclude that sea levels will continue to increase at the same rate in the future. However, they also said their findings show that previous projections have not exaggerated the rate of change but may in some respects have underestimated it.
Measurements of carbon dioxide through facilities such as the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's Cape Grim observatory in Tasmania support the paper's conclusions. The global average temperature estimates are collated separately by NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies in the USA and the Hadley Centre and Climatic Research Unit in the UK. The sea level observations come from both coastal and island tide gauges and data provided by satellites.
Sea levels have risen largely due to warming of the ocean and the consequent thermal expansion and melting of non-polar glaciers and ice caps and the ice sheets of Antarctica and Greenland.
One of the authors of the review, Dr John Church of the Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems CRC and CSIRO, noted that any (or all) of the modelled contributions could be underestimated but that there is most uncertainty about the contribution made by ice-sheet melts. "Models of the potential contribution of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets need to be improved to include the potential of a relatively dynamic response," Dr Church said. This work is a component of the Wealth from Oceans Flagship, an initiative of CSIRO to more broadly understand the impact of marine climate change.
Lead author of the review was Dr Stefan Ramstorf, of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; with contributing authors: Dr Anny Cazenave, Toulouse France; Dr John Church, Antarctic Climate and Ecosystem CRC and CSIRO; Dr James Hansen at NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, USA; Drs Ralph E. Keeling and Richard C.J. Somerville, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UCSD, USA; and, Dr David E. Parker, Hadley Centre, Met Office, UK.
CSIRO Australia
Sea Level Current Events and Sea Level News RSSTropical cyclone formation likely near Madagascar
Forecasters are watching a low pressure area located off the east coast of Madagascar that appears ripe for development in the Southern Indian Ocean. If it becomes a tropical storm, it would be named Hubert.
Methane releases from Arctic shelf may be much larger and faster than anticipated
A section of the Arctic Ocean seafloor that holds vast stores of frozen methane is showing signs of instability and widespread venting of the powerful greenhouse gas, according to the findings of an international research team led by University of Alaska Fairbanks scientists Natalia Shakhova and Igor Semiletov.
Turning up the heat: Finding out how well the Webb telescope's sunshield will perform
Keeping an infrared telescope at very cold operating temperatures isn't an option, it's an absolute necessity. For the James Webb Space Telescope to see the traces of infrared light generated by stars and galaxies billions of light years away, it must be kept at cryogenic temperatures of under 50 Kelvin (-370°F).
Research team breaks the ice with new estimate of glacier melt
The melting of glaciers is well documented, but when looking at the rate at which they have been retreating, a team of international researchers steps back and says not so fast.
Rapid response science missions assess potential for another major Haiti earthquake
To help assess the potential threat of more large earthquakes in Haiti and nearby areas, scientists at The University of Texas at Austin's Institute for Geophysics are co-leading three expeditions to the country with colleagues from Purdue University, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, the U.S. Geological Survey and five other institutions.
Ice Shelves Disappearing on Antarctic Peninsula
Ice shelves are retreating in the southern section of the Antarctic Peninsula due to climate change. This could result in glacier retreat and sea-level rise if warming continues, threatening coastal communities and low-lying islands worldwide.
Team finds subtropical waters flushing through Greenland fjord
Waters from warmer latitudes - or subtropical waters - are reaching Greenland's glaciers, driving melting and likely triggering an acceleration of ice loss, reports a team of researchers led by Fiamma Straneo, a physical oceanographer from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI).
Research challenges models of sea level change during ice-age cycles
Theories about the rates of ice accumulation and melting during the Quaternary Period -- the time interval ranging from 2.6 million years ago to the present -- may need to be revised, thanks to research findings published by a University of Iowa researcher and his colleagues in the Feb. 12 issue of the journal Science.
Tropical Storm Olga: Three times a lady
Just like 1980s song by the Commodores, "Three Times a Lady," Olga has become a tropical storm for the third time in northern Australia.
Seabed biodiversity of the Straits of Magellan and Drake Passage
A study of animals visible to the naked eye and living in and on the seabed - the 'macrobenthos' - of the Straits of Magellan and Drake Passage will help scientists understand the biodiversity, biogeography and ecology of the Magellanic region.
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