Science Current Events | Science News | Brightsurf.com
 
Email a Friend Send to a friend
Printer Friendly Print Asbestos disease projections too low

Asbestos disease projections too low

April 03, 2007

Current predictions of the future incidence of asbestos-related disease have been substantially underestimated, according to new modelling to be presented in Melbourne today by an epidemiologist from The Australian National University.

The analysis by Dr Mark Clements, from the National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, and colleagues shows that the peak number of cases of mesothelioma, a deadly cancer caused by asbestos, will occur four years later and the future total incidence may be in excess of 35 per cent higher than existing models would have predicted. The pattern for mesothelioma reflects changes in asbestos exposure and therefore reflects predictions for all asbestos-related diseases, Dr Clements said.




These early results have important implications for asbestos-related disease liability schemes, Dr Clements said, although more detailed work is needed to properly integrate other factors related to the actuarial implications.

According to the research, an existing model developed by the auditing firm KPMG gave the peak of mesothelioma cases as occurring in 2010, with 3530 cases in New South Wales men. However, Dr Clements said their own epidemiological model showed that the peak could occur as late as 2017 and see 6430 cases of the deadly disease in NSW men.

"There is reasonable evidence that the peak of mesothelioma incidence is later than 2010. This has far reaching consequences for actuarial predictions, where the number of cases out to 2060 may be in excess of 35 per cent higher than the number predicted by KPMG's model," he said.

"It is unclear why the two models give different results. The KPMG modeling may have been influenced by a common belief that peak incidence would be in 2010; in contrast, our epidemiological model is able to predict the peak for incidence."

"Although these results have implications for liability, there are several steps between predicting mesothelioma incidence and calculating liability," he said. "Moreover, modelling would be required for other asbestos-related diseases.

"I can't speculate as to the revised level of liability. However based on our modelling of future mesothelioma incidence it's worrying that the liability may have been under-estimated," Dr Clements said.

Dr Clements will present this paper at the Accident Compensation Seminar, hosted by the Institute of Actuaries of Australia, in Melbourne today.



Research Australia



Related Asbestos Current Events and Asbestos News Articles Asbestos Current Events and Asbestos News RSS Asbestos Current Events and Asbestos News RSS
Nanoparticles trigger cell death?
Nanoparticles that are one milliard of a metre in size are widely used, for example, in cosmetics and food packaging materials.

Jefferson Department of Surgery announces new pancreas tumor registry
Charles J. Yeo, M.D., Samuel D. Gross Professor and Chair, Department of Surgery at Jefferson Medical College of Thomas Jefferson University, announces the establishment of the new Jefferson Pancreas Tumor Registry (JPTR).

Creating lung cancer risk models for specific populations refines prediction
Lung cancer risk prediction models are enhanced by taking into account risk factors by race and by measuring DNA repair capacity, according to research teams led by epidemiologists at The University of Texas M. D. Anderson Cancer Center in two complementary papers appearing in the September issue of Cancer Prevention Research.

Exposure to Agent Orange linked to prostate cancer in Vietnam veterans
UC Davis Cancer Center physicians today released results of research showing that Vietnam War veterans exposed to Agent Orange have greatly increased risks of prostate cancer and even greater risks of getting the most aggressive form of the disease as compared to those who were not exposed.

New clinical trial for patients with asbestos-associated lung cancer
The Mesothelioma Center within the Herbert Irving Comprehensive Cancer Center at NewYork-Presbyterian Hospital and Columbia University Medical Center is now recruiting patients for a clinical research study of a new targeted radiation and chemotherapy protocol for pleural mesothelioma, a cancer of the lung's lining that is almost always caused by previous exposure to asbestos.

New research group offers hope to asbestosis sufferers
The Asbestos Research Group, offering hope to sufferers of asbestos-related diseases, was launched at The Wesley Research Institute today.

Biomarkers identified for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis
The first evidence of a distinctive protein signature that could help to transform the diagnosis and improve the monitoring of the devastating lung disease idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is being reported by University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine researchers in this month's edition of PLoS Medicine, an open-access journal of the Public Library of Science.

Low exposure to asbestos-like mineral from Montana vermiculite may up lung disease risk
Workers exposed to low levels of an asbestos-like mineral from Montana more than two decades ago are at an increased risk for lung disease today, according to research from the University of Cincinnati (UC).

Legal exposure to asbestos-like material linked to lung damage 25 years later
Men and women who worked in a plant that processed vermiculite tainted with asbestos-like fibers that originated from a mine in Libby, Montana, show high prevalence of scarring and thickening of the membrane that lines the chest wall some 25 years after the plant stopped using the material-even those who were exposed at or below current legal levels.

Lung cancer rates higher among female nonsmokers than previously
Not all lung cancer is due to a lifetime of smoking cigarettes. Sometimes the diagnosis is a mystery, and the stigma surrounding the disease makes it hard for patients to talk about.
More Asbestos Current Events and Asbestos News Articles


Asbestos: Medical and Legal Aspects, Fifth Edition
by Barry I. Castleman

Written by one of the leading asbestos experts for both plaintiff and defense attorneys, occupational and environmental health professionals, as well as others in the field of toxic substances control, Asbestos: Medical and Legal Aspects has become the definitive resource on the medical and legal aspects of asbestos. Asbestos: Medical and Legal Aspects provides a comprehensive examination of...



Asbestos: Risk Assessment, Epidemiology, and Health Effects, Second Edition

While there are hundreds of books available on many different aspects of asbestos, none contain the encyclopedic, comprehensive coverage you will find here. Edited by leading authorities, with contributions from specialists and leaders in their respective fields, Asbestos: Risk Assessment, Epidemiology, and Health Effects provides a cross-disciplinary approach and an authoritative review of...



Libby, Montana: Asbestos and the Deadly Silence of an American Corporation
by Andrea Peacock



Asbestos and its Diseases

Although asbestos was once considered a miracle mineral, today even the word itself has ominous implications for all strata of our society. Incorporated in the past into over 3000 different industrial and consumer products, as well as in building materials and military equipment, opportunities for exposure continue to be ever present in our environment. Of all of us who are potentially exposed,...



Pathology of Asbestos-Associated Diseases

Pathology of Asbestos-Associated Diseases integrates the newest research and advances in its discussion of asbestos-induced diseases. Organized in 13 chapters, the book begins with background information on the mineralogy of asbestos, occupation and environmental exposure to asbestos, and asbestosis. A detailed discussion on mesothelioma includes a historical background, addresses etiologic...



Fatal Deception : The Terrifying True Story of How Asbestos is Killing America
by Michael Bowker

STILL LEGAL, STILL LETHALMost Americans mistakenly believe asbestos was banned long ago. In fact, it is still legal and can still kill you. Its microscopic fibers cause painful and incurable diseases. Despite being outlawed in nearly every other industrialized country, asbestos remains a legal component of more than three thousand common products in the United States. These include toasters,...



Asbestos House: The Secret History of James Hardie Industries
by Gideon Haigh

Reconstructed from hundreds of hours of interviews and thousands of pages of documentation, this multi-award-winning saga of high finance is a clear depiction of industrial history, legal intrigue, medical breakthrough, and human frailty. Focusing on James Hardie Industries and the disastrous effects of asbestos in the Australian workplace, this study provides an insightful commentary on modern...



Asbestos And Fire: Technological Trade-offs And The Body At Risk
by Rachel Maines

For much of the industrial era, asbestos was a widely acclaimed benchmark material. During its heyday, it was manufactured into nearly three thousand different products, most of which protected life and property from heat, flame, and electricity. It was used in virtually every industry from hotel keeping to military technology to chemical manufacturing, and was integral to building construction...



Asbestos and Other Fibrous Materials: Mineralogy, Crystal Chemistry, and Health Effects
by H. Catherine W. Skinner, Malcolm Ross, Clifford Frondel

This comprehensive sourcebook describes the chemical, physical, and mineralogical aspects of fibrous inorganic materials, both synthetic and naturally occurring. A general description of the fibrous state, the range of compounds that can adopt this form, and an overview of the characteristics unique to such materials form the backbone of the book . The authors also assess the application and...

Bedrock geology and asbestos deposits of the upper Missisquoi Valley and vicinity, Vermont (Geological Survey bulletin)
by Wallace Martin Cady

© 2008 BrightSurf.com