Sunspot abundance linked to heavy rains in East AfricaAugust 06, 2007WASHINGTON - A new study reveals correlations between plentiful sunspots and periods of heavy rain in East Africa. Intense rainfall in the region often leads to flooding and disease outbreaks. The analysis by a team of U.S. and British researchers shows that unusually heavy rainfalls in East Africa over the past century preceded peak sunspot activity by about one year. Because periods of peak sunspot activity, known as solar maxima, are predictable, so too are the associated heavy rains that precede them, the researchers propose. "With the help of these findings, we can now say when especially rainy seasons are likely to occur, several years in advance," says paleoclimatologist and study leader Curt Stager of Paul Smith's College in Paul Smiths, New York. Forewarned by such predictions, public health officials could ramp up prevention measures against insect-borne diseases long before epidemics begin, he adds. The sunspot-rainfall analysis is scheduled to appear on 7 August in the Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, a publication of the American Geophysical Union. Increasing sunspot numbers indicate a rise in the sun's energy output. Sunspot abundance peaks on an 11-year cycle. The next peak is expected in 2011-2012. If the newfound pattern holds, rainfall would also peak the year before. "We expect East Africa to experience a major intensification of rainy season precipitation, along with widespread Rift Valley Fever epidemics, a year or so before the solar maximum of 2011-2012," the team reports. Because mosquitoes and other disease-carrying insects thrive in wet conditions, heavy rains may herald outbreaks of diseases such as Rift Valley Fever. The new analysis relies on rainfall data going back a century. The scientists also used historical records of water levels at lakes Victoria, Tanganyika, and Naivasha. The work counters previous research that found no connection between sunspot cycles and rainfall in East Africa. Stager's team concludes that, although the link between sunspots and rainfall was weak between 1927 and 1968, the cyclic pattern held true throughout the 20th century. Previous statistical analysis discounted the link for a variety of reasons, including the influence of El Niño and other climatic disturbances not associated with sunspots. Scientists have investigated apparent correlations between solar variability and Lake Victoria's water levels since the beginning of the last century, says co-author Alexander Ruzmaikin of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California. The new research "shows that these correlations are, in fact, not accidental, effectively resolving a longstanding historical puzzle and improving our knowledge of how solar variability affects Africa's climate," he adds. Stager, Ruzmaikin and their colleagues offer several reasons why sunspot peaks may affect rainfall. In a simple scenario, increased solar energy associated with sunspots heats both land and sea, forcing moist air to rise and triggering precipitation. While sunspot peaks augur extraordinarily wet rainy seasons, heavy rains are possible at other times as well, Stager acknowledges. But, most of the rainiest times, he says, are consistently coupled with the predictable rhythms of sunspot peaks. And, to be forewarned is to be forearmed. "The hope is that people on the ground will use this research to predict heavy rainfall events," Stager says. "Those events lead to erosion, flooding, and disease." American Geophysical Union |
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| Related Sunspot Current Events and Sunspot News Articles Solar Cycle Driven by More than Sunspots; Sun Also Bombards Earth with High-Speed Streams of Wind Challenging conventional wisdom, new research finds that the number of sunspots provides an incomplete measure of changes in the Sun's impact on Earth over the course of the 11-year solar cycle. Scientists uncover solar cycle, stratosphere and ocean connections Subtle connections between the 11-year solar cycle, the stratosphere, and the tropical Pacific Ocean work in sync to generate periodic weather patterns that affect much of the globe, according to research appearing this week in the journal Science. Connections among solar cycle, stratosphere and ocean discovered Subtle connections between the 11-year-solar cycle, the stratosphere and the tropical Pacific Ocean work in sync to generate periodic weather patterns that affect much of the globe, according to research results appearing this week in the journal Science. Scientists create first comprehensive computer model of sunspots In a breakthrough that will help scientists unlock mysteries of the sun and its impacts on Earth, scientists have created the first-ever comprehensive computer model of sunspots. Post-pandemic reforestation in New World helped trigger Little Ice Age, Stanford researchers say The power of viruses is well documented in human history. Swarms of little viral Davids have repeatedly laid low the great Goliaths of human civilization, most famously in the devastating pandemics that swept the New World during European conquest and settlement. Scientists Find Giant Ring Encircling Exotic Dead Star One of the most powerful eruptions in the universe might have spun an infrared ring around a rare and exotic star known as a magnetar, a highly magnetized neutron star and the remnant of a brilliant supernova explosion signaling the death throes of a massive star. NOAA: Sunspot is harbinger of new solar cycle, increasing risk for electrical systems A new 11-year cycle of heightened solar activity, bringing with it increased risks for power grids, critical military, civilian and airline communications, GPS signals and even cell phones and ATM transactions, showed signs it was on its way late Thursday when the cycle's first sunspot appeared in the sun's Northern Hemisphere, NOAA scientists said. Link between sunspots, rain helps predict disease in east Africa The research, conducted by paleoclimatologist Curt Stager of Paul Smith's College in Paul Smiths, N.Y. and colleagues, can be used by public health officials to increase measures against insect-borne diseases long before epidemics begin. Astrophysicists find fractal image of Sun's 'Storm Season' imprinted on Solar Wind Plasma astrophysicists at the University of Warwick have found that key information about the Sun's 'storm season' is being broadcast across the solar system in a fractal snapshot imprinted in the solar wind. NOAA announces next solar storm cycle will likely start next March The next 11-year cycle of solar storms will most likely start next March and peak in late 2011 or mid-2012-up to a year later than expected-according to a forecast issued by the NOAA Space Environment Center in coordination with an international panel of solar experts. More Sunspot Current Events and Sunspot News Articles |
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