Satellite shows regional variation in warming from sun during solar cycleNovember 14, 2007A NASA satellite designed, built and controlled by the University of Colorado at Boulder is expected to help scientists resolve wide-ranging predictions about the coming solar cycle peak in 2012 and its influence on Earth's warming climate, according to the chief scientist on the project. Senior Research Associate Tom Woods of CU-Boulder's Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics said the brightening of the sun as it approaches its next solar cycle maximum will have regional climatic impacts on Earth. While some scientists predict the next solar cycle -- expected to start in 2008 -- will be significantly weaker than the present one, others are forecasting an increase of up to 40 percent in the sun's activity, said Woods. Woods is the principal investigator on NASA's $88 million Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment, or SORCE, mission, launched in 2003 to study how and why variations in the sun affect Earth's atmosphere and climate. In August, NASA extended the SORCE mission through 2012. The extension provides roughly $18 million to LASP, which controls SORCE from campus by uploading commands and downloading data three times daily to the Space Technology Building in the CU Research Park.
Solar cycles, which span an average of 11 years, are driven by the amount and size of sunspots present on the sun's surface, which modulate brightness from the X-ray to infrared portion of the electromagnetic spectrum. The current solar cycle peaked in 2002. Solar activity alters interactions between Earth's surface and its atmosphere, which drive global circulation patterns, said Woods. While warming on Earth from increased solar brightness is modest compared to the natural effects of volcanic eruptions, cyclical weather patterns like El Nino or human emissions of greenhouse gases, regional temperature changes can vary by a factor of eight. During the most recent solar maximum, for example, the global mean temperature rise on Earth due to solar-brightness increases was only about 0.2 degrees Fahrenheit, said Woods. But parts of the central United States warmed by 0.7 degrees F, and a region off the coast of California even cooled slightly. A paper on the coming decade of solar activity by Woods and Judith Lean of the Naval Research Laboratory in Washington, D.C., was published online Oct. 30 in the scientific newsletter, Eos. "It was very important to the climate change community that SORCE was extended, because it allows us to continue charting the solar irradiance record in a number of wavelengths without interruption," Woods said. "Even relatively small changes in solar output can significantly affect Earth because of the amplifying affect in how the atmosphere responds to solar changes." With mounting concern over the alteration of Earth's surface and atmosphere by humans, it is increasingly important to understand natural "forcings" on the sun-Earth system that impact both climate and space weather, said Woods. Such natural forcing includes heat from the sun's radiation that causes saltwater and freshwater evaporation and drives Earth's water cycle. Increases in UV radiation from the sun also heat up the stratosphere -- located from 10 miles to 30 miles above Earth -- which can cause significant changes in atmospheric circulation patterns over the planet, affecting Earth's weather and climate, he said. "We will never fully understand the human impact on Earth and its atmosphere unless we first establish the natural effects of solar variability." SORCE also is helping scientists better understand violent space weather episodes triggered by solar flares and coronal mass ejections that affect the upper atmosphere and are more prevalent in solar maximum and declining solar cycle phases, said Woods. The severe "Halloween Storms" in October and November 2003 disrupted GPS navigation and communications, causing extensive and costly rerouting of commercial "over-the-poles" jet flights to lower latitudes, he said. Woods also is the principal investigator on a $30 million instrument known as the Extreme Ultraviolet Variability Experiment, or EVE, one of three solar instruments slated for launch on NASA's Solar Dynamic Observatory in December 2008. Designed and built at LASP and delivered to NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Maryland last September, EVE will measure precise changes in the sun's UV brightness, providing space weather forecasters with early warnings of potential communications and navigation outages. About one-third of the annual SORCE budget goes for commanding and controlling the satellite, roughly one-third for producing public data sets and one-third for analyzing how and why the sun is changing, he said. "CU-Boulder students are our lifeblood," said Woods. "They are involved in all aspects of the SORCE mission, from uploading commands to the spacecraft to analyzing data." University of Colorado at Boulder | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Related Solar Cycle News Articles NIST assists in solar stake-out to improve space weather forecasts The sun is about to undergo unremitting scrutiny. About six times each minute of every hour for at least five years, a soon-to-be launched NASA satellite will measure the sun's quirky-and sometimes stormy-output of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) light. NOAA: Sunspot is harbinger of new solar cycle, increasing risk for electrical systems A new 11-year cycle of heightened solar activity, bringing with it increased risks for power grids, critical military, civilian and airline communications, GPS signals and even cell phones and ATM transactions, showed signs it was on its way late Thursday when the cycle's first sunspot appeared in the sun's Northern Hemisphere, NOAA scientists said. Astrophysicists find fractal image of Sun's 'Storm Season' imprinted on Solar Wind Plasma astrophysicists at the University of Warwick have found that key information about the Sun's 'storm season' is being broadcast across the solar system in a fractal snapshot imprinted in the solar wind. NOAA announces next solar storm cycle will likely start next March The next 11-year cycle of solar storms will most likely start next March and peak in late 2011 or mid-2012-up to a year later than expected-according to a forecast issued by the NOAA Space Environment Center in coordination with an international panel of solar experts. Creation of a magnetic field in a turbulent fluid Understanding the origin and behavior of the magnetic fields of planets and stars is the goal of research being carried out by many teams from all over the world. Climate Change Affecting Earth's Outermost Atmosphere Carbon dioxide emissions from the burning of fossil fuels will produce a 3 percent reduction in the density of Earth's outermost atmosphere by 2017 Carbon dioxide emissions predicted to reduce density of Earth's outermost atmosphere by 2017 Carbon dioxide emissions from the burning of fossil fuels will produce a 3 percent reduction in the density of Earth's outermost atmosphere by 2017, according to a team of scientists from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Pennsylvania State University (PSU). Ozone recovering, but unlikely to stabilize at pre-1980 levels, says study While Earth's ozone layer is slowly being replenished following an international 1987 agreement banning CFCs, the recovery is occurring in a changing atmosphere and is unlikely to stabilize at pre-1980 levels. New technique provides the first full view of the far side of the sun The hidden face of the sun is fully visible for the first time, thanks to a new technique developed at Stanford University. Scientists issue unprecedented forecast of next sunspot cycle The next sunspot cycle will be 30 to 50 percent stronger than the last one, and begin as much as a year late, according to a breakthrough forecast using a computer model of solar dynamics developed by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colo. More Solar Cycle News Articles |
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