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Researchers say Arctic sea ice still at risk despite cold winter
March 19, 2008Using the latest satellite observations, NASA researchers and others report that the Arctic is still on "thin ice" when it comes to the condition of sea ice cover in the region. A colder-than-average winter in some regions of the Arctic this year has yielded an increase in the area of new sea ice, while the older sea ice that lasts for several years has continued to decline.
On March 18 the scientists said they believe that the increased area of sea ice this winter is due to recent weather conditions, while the decline in perennial ice reflects the longer-term warming climate trend and is a result of increased melting during summer and greater movement of the older ice out of the Arctic.
Perennial sea ice is the long-lived, year-round layer of ice that remains even when the surrounding short-lived seasonal sea ice melts away in summer to its minimum extent. It is this perennial sea ice, left over from the summer melt period, that has been rapidly declining from year to year, and that has gained the attention and research focus of scientists. According to NASA-processed microwave data, whereas perennial ice used to cover 50-60 percent of the Arctic, this year it covers less than 30 percent. Very old ice that remains in the Arctic for at least six years comprised over 20 percent of the Arctic area in the mid to late 1980s, but this winter it decreased to just six percent.
According to Walt Meier of the National Snow and Ice Data Center at the University of Colorado, Boulder, as ice ages it continues to grow and thicken, so that older ice is generally also thicker ice. This winter the ice cover is much thinner overall and thus in a more vulnerable state heading into the summer melt season. NASA's ICESat satellite has contributed to understanding of the changes in ice thickness. To get a better understanding of the behavior of sea ice, NASA is planning a follow-on satellite mission, ICESat II, to launch in 2015.
Arctic sea ice grows and declines seasonally, ranging from an average minimum extent in September of 2.5 million square miles to an average winter maximum extent of 5.9 million square miles in March. This March, instruments on NASA's Aqua satellite and NOAA and U.S. Defense Department satellites showed the maximum sea ice extent slightly increased by 3.9 percent over that of the previous three years, but it is still below the long-term average by 2.2 percent. Increases in ice extent occurred in areas where surface temperatures were colder than the historical averages. At the same time, as a result of the export of ice from the Arctic, the area of perennial ice decreased to an all-time minimum.
Joey Comiso of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md., the lead author of a 2007 related study, used data from NASA's passive microwave data set to establish that the perennial ice cover at the summer Arctic ice minimum in 2007 was about 40 percent less than the 28-year average. According to the latest observations from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (an organization partially funded by NASA), perennial sea ice dropped from about 40 percent of the total ice pack last year to 30 percent of total ice this winter. The perennial ice is also growing younger, meaning that it is thinner and will be more vulnerable during the summer melt period.
In light of the Arctic's cold spell this winter, NASA satellites and scientists will continue to carefully watch conditions in the Arctic Ocean as summer settles in to better determine the extent of the perennial sea ice.
NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center
According to Walt Meier of the National Snow and Ice Data Center at the University of Colorado, Boulder, as ice ages it continues to grow and thicken, so that older ice is generally also thicker ice. This winter the ice cover is much thinner overall and thus in a more vulnerable state heading into the summer melt season. NASA's ICESat satellite has contributed to understanding of the changes in ice thickness. To get a better understanding of the behavior of sea ice, NASA is planning a follow-on satellite mission, ICESat II, to launch in 2015.
Arctic sea ice grows and declines seasonally, ranging from an average minimum extent in September of 2.5 million square miles to an average winter maximum extent of 5.9 million square miles in March. This March, instruments on NASA's Aqua satellite and NOAA and U.S. Defense Department satellites showed the maximum sea ice extent slightly increased by 3.9 percent over that of the previous three years, but it is still below the long-term average by 2.2 percent. Increases in ice extent occurred in areas where surface temperatures were colder than the historical averages. At the same time, as a result of the export of ice from the Arctic, the area of perennial ice decreased to an all-time minimum.
Joey Comiso of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md., the lead author of a 2007 related study, used data from NASA's passive microwave data set to establish that the perennial ice cover at the summer Arctic ice minimum in 2007 was about 40 percent less than the 28-year average. According to the latest observations from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (an organization partially funded by NASA), perennial sea ice dropped from about 40 percent of the total ice pack last year to 30 percent of total ice this winter. The perennial ice is also growing younger, meaning that it is thinner and will be more vulnerable during the summer melt period.
In light of the Arctic's cold spell this winter, NASA satellites and scientists will continue to carefully watch conditions in the Arctic Ocean as summer settles in to better determine the extent of the perennial sea ice.
NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center
Sea Ice News and Current Sea Ice Events RSSSuccessful series of measurements in Arctic sea ice
The German Research Vessel Polarstern had to prove its ice breaking capabilities in Arctic waters to gain data on two series of long-term research measurements. After working in regions up to latitude 82° N, Polarstern of the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research in the Helmholtz Association will enter port in Reykjavik (Iceland) on August 10th.
Wilkins Ice Shelf hanging by its last thread
The Wilkins Ice Shelf is experiencing further disintegration that is threatening the collapse of the ice bridge connecting the shelf to Charcot Island. Since the connection to the island in the image centre helps to stabilise the ice shelf, it is likely the break-up of the bridge will put the remainder of the ice shelf at risk.
How will the Arctic sea ice cover develop this summer?
The ice cover in the Arctic Ocean at the end of summer 2008 will lie, with almost 100 per cent probability, below that of the year 2005 - the year with the second lowest sea ice extent ever measured.
Human influences challenge penguin populations
The ecology of penguins makes these iconic swimming and diving seabirds of the Southern Hemisphere unusually susceptible to environmental changes.
Computer models show major climate shift as a result of closing ozone hole
A new study led by Columbia University researchers has found that the closing of the ozone hole, which is projected to occur sometime in the second half of the 21st century, may significantly affect climate change in the Southern Hemisphere, and therefore, the global climate.
Permafrost Threatened by Rapid Retreat of Arctic Sea Ice, NCAR Study Finds
The rate of climate warming over northern Alaska, Canada, and Russia could more than triple during periods of rapid sea ice loss, according to a new study led by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).
Scientists endure Arctic for last campaign prior to CryoSat-2 launch
An international group of scientists has swapped their comfortable offices for one of the most inhospitable environments on the planet to carry out a challenging field campaign that is seen as the key to ensuring the data delivered by ESA's ice mission CryoSat will be as accurate as possible.
CU-Boulder researchers forecast 3-in-5 chance of record low Arctic sea ice in 2008
New University of Colorado at Boulder calculations indicate the record low minimum extent of sea ice across the Arctic last September has a three-in-five chance of being shattered again in 2008 because of continued warming temperatures and a preponderance of younger, thinner ice.
Arctic marine mammals on thin ice
The loss of sea ice due to climate change could spell disaster for polar bears and other Arctic marine mammals. The April Special Issue of Ecological Applications examines such potential effects, puts them in historical context, and describes possible conservation measures to mitigate them.
Arctic Ice More Vulnerable to Sunny Weather, New Study Shows
The shrinking expanse of Arctic sea ice is increasingly vulnerable to summer sunshine, new research concludes.
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