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Extinction most likely for rare trees in the Amazon rainforest
August 14, 2008Common tree species in the Amazon will survive even grim scenarios of deforestation and road-building, but rare trees could suffer extinction rates of up to 50 percent, predict Smithsonian scientists and colleagues in the Aug. 12 issue of the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Science.
How resilient will natural systems prove to be as they weather the next several decades of severe, human-induced global change? The debate is on between proponents of models that maximize and minimize extinction rates.
The Amazon basin contains about 40 percent of the world's remaining rainforest. One of the fundamental characteristics of tropical forests is the presence of very rare tree species. Competing models of relative species abundance, one based on Fisher's alpha statistic and the other based on Preston's lognormal curve, yield different proportions of rare trees in the forest.
Thirty years ago Stephen P. Hubbell, senior scientist at the Center for Tropical Forest Science of the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute and distinguished professor in the Department of Ecology and Evolution at the University of California, Los Angeles, and his colleague Robin Foster, now at the Field Museum in Chicago, set up a unique experiment to monitor the growth, birth and death of more than 250,000 tropical trees on Panama's Barro Colorado Island. This large "forest dynamics plot" would generate the data needed to build good models that include rare species.
Today the Center for Tropical Forest Science coordinates a Global Earth Observatory-a network of 20 such forest study sites in 17 countries, which maintains "actuarial tables" for more than 3 million trees.
Hubbell works with data from the network to develop and test his neutral theory of biodiversity-an attempt to find a unified explanation of large, complex biological systems that accurately predicts the outcome of major ecological and evolutionary forces of change.
In this offering, the authors use the neutral theory to predict the number of tree species and to test predictions of the Millenium Ecosystems Assessment that forecasts major tree extinctions in the Amazon over the next several decades. First, they estimate that the Brazilian Amazon has (or had) 11,210 large tree species, and, of these, 5,308 species are classified as rare.
Based on optimistic and non-optimistic scenarios for road construction in the Amazon published by the Smithsonian's William Laurance and colleagues in the journal Science in 2004, they predict that the rare species will suffer between 37 and 50 percent extinction, whereas the extinction rate for all trees could be from 20 to 33 percent overall.
Would a simpler Amazon forest lacking many of its rarer trees function? Will the extinction of species other than trees-pollinators, seed predators, carnivores-contribute significantly to the lost of rainforest resilience? This and other biological quandaries remain. The authors exhort: "Although it is an old scientific chestnut, we must once again emphasize how important it is to support continuing basic science on tropical forests."
Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute
Thirty years ago Stephen P. Hubbell, senior scientist at the Center for Tropical Forest Science of the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute and distinguished professor in the Department of Ecology and Evolution at the University of California, Los Angeles, and his colleague Robin Foster, now at the Field Museum in Chicago, set up a unique experiment to monitor the growth, birth and death of more than 250,000 tropical trees on Panama's Barro Colorado Island. This large "forest dynamics plot" would generate the data needed to build good models that include rare species.
Today the Center for Tropical Forest Science coordinates a Global Earth Observatory-a network of 20 such forest study sites in 17 countries, which maintains "actuarial tables" for more than 3 million trees.
Hubbell works with data from the network to develop and test his neutral theory of biodiversity-an attempt to find a unified explanation of large, complex biological systems that accurately predicts the outcome of major ecological and evolutionary forces of change.
In this offering, the authors use the neutral theory to predict the number of tree species and to test predictions of the Millenium Ecosystems Assessment that forecasts major tree extinctions in the Amazon over the next several decades. First, they estimate that the Brazilian Amazon has (or had) 11,210 large tree species, and, of these, 5,308 species are classified as rare.
Based on optimistic and non-optimistic scenarios for road construction in the Amazon published by the Smithsonian's William Laurance and colleagues in the journal Science in 2004, they predict that the rare species will suffer between 37 and 50 percent extinction, whereas the extinction rate for all trees could be from 20 to 33 percent overall.
Would a simpler Amazon forest lacking many of its rarer trees function? Will the extinction of species other than trees-pollinators, seed predators, carnivores-contribute significantly to the lost of rainforest resilience? This and other biological quandaries remain. The authors exhort: "Although it is an old scientific chestnut, we must once again emphasize how important it is to support continuing basic science on tropical forests."
Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute
Tree Species Current Events and Tree Species News RSSPaleoecologists offer new insight into how climate change will affect organisms
An article in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science written by a team of ecologists, including Robert Booth, assistant professor of earth and environmental science at Lehigh University, examines some of the potential problems with current prediction methods and calls for the use of a range of approaches when predicting the impact of climate change on organisms.
Trees facilitate wildfires as a way to protect their habitat
Fire is often thought of something that trees should be protected from, but a new study suggests that some trees may themselves contribute to the likelihood of wildfires in order to promote their own abundance at the expense of their competitors.
Herbal tonic for radiotherapy
Antioxidant extracts of the leaves of the Gingko biloba tree may protect cells from radiation damage, according to a study published in the International Journal of Low Radiation.
Global Seed Banking Milestone Celebrated by Wildflower Center, 122 Other Organizations
An international partnership of 54 countries led by the United Kingdom's Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew is celebrating a decade of work to set aside seeds for future generations from 10 percent of the world's wild flowering species.
Plants' response to fire tested
A team from the National Institute for Agricultural and Food Research and Technology (INIA) has developed a new method for identifying the flammability of plant species by using a device that measures how construction materials react to fire.
First global scientific conference supporting UN efforts to curb desertification opens in Argentina
As climate change negotiators continue to skirt the role of agricultural land use in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, top scientists working on land management in the world's vast dry areas will gather this week in Buenos Aires, Argentina, determined to make the case that thwarting desertification in drylands is viable and also critical to the success of a new climate deal.
Exotic timber plantations found to use more than twice the water of native forests
Ecologists have discovered that timber plantations in Hawaii use more than twice the amount of water to grow as native forests use.
Study predicts an uncertain future for forests
The composition of some of our nation's forests may be quite different 200 to 400 years from today according to a recent study at the University of Illinois.
Rhododendron expansion may increase the chance of landslides on Southern Appalachian slopes
Research by U.S. Forest Service Southern Research Station (SRS) scientists and partners suggests that the expansion of rosebay rhododendron (Rhododendron maximum) in Southern Appalachian mountain hollows may increase the likelihood of landslides during and after intense rain events.
Why are autumn leaves red in America and yellow in Europe?
Walking outdoors in the fall, the splendidly colorful leaves adorning the trees are a delight to the eye. In Europe these autumn leaves are mostly yellow, while the United States and East Asia boast lustrous red foliage.
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