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It's relative: Contrasting hurricane theories heat up
November 03, 2008Virginia Key, Fla. - In a paper published in the journal Science today, scientists Gabriel A. Vecchi of NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Kyle L. Swanson of the University of Wisconsin - Milwaukee Atmospheric Sciences Group and Brian J. Soden from the University of Miami's Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science teamed up to study hurricane data observed over more than 50 years. The study explores the relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) and seasonal hurricane activity, and show how differing interpretations of the observational record can imply vastly different futures for Atlantic hurricane activity due to global warming. The two interpretations arise from assumptions of whether it is the local SST in the Atlantic in isolation, or whether it is the SST in the Atlantic 'relative' to the rest of the tropics, that drives variations in Atlantic hurricane activity.
If one assumes the former (the local SST hypothesis), then by 2100, the lower bound on Atlantic hurricane activity is comparable to that of 2005, when four major hurricanes struck the continental United States, causing more than $100 billion in damage. The upper bound exceeds 2005 levels by more than a factor of two. However, if one assumes the latter (the relative SST hypothesis), then the future is similar to the recent past, with periods of higher and lower hurricane activity relative to present-day conditions due to natural climate variability, but with little long-term trend.
The statistical relationship between either interpretation of the SST/hurricane activity link is ambiguous over the period 1946-2007 (they are statistically indistinguishable, though both are significant), but they imply fundamentally different projections for the future and interpretations of the past. The team further argues that the consistency between theory, numerical models, and historical observations offers compelling evidence that the 'relative' SST hypothesis is more accurate and provides a better framework for projections of future changes in hurricane activity.
University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science
University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science
Hurricane Activity Current Events and Hurricane Activity News RSSHurricane seasons are more active
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NOAA report finds flower garden banks sanctuary reefs among healthiest in Gulf
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FSU scientists unveil new seasonal hurricane forecasting model
Scientists at The Florida State University's Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) have developed a new computer model that they hope will predict with unprecedented accuracy how many hurricanes will occur in a given season.
Lesson from the past for surviving climate change
Research led by the University of Leicester suggests people today and in future generations should look to the past in order to mitigate the worst effects of climate change.
Future Risk of Hurricanes: The Role of Climate Change
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2007 hurricane forecasts took blow from winds and Saharan dry, dusty air
A new analysis of environmental conditions over the Atlantic Ocean shows that hot, dry air associated with dust outbreaks from the Sahara desert was a likely contributor to the quieter-than-expected 2007 hurricane season.
Hurricanes and climate change: A sharper view
n a study published in the July 2008 issue of Geophysical Research Letters, Drs. David S. Nolan and Eric D. Rappin from the University of Miami's Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science describe a new method for evaluating the frequency of hurricane formation in present and future tropical climates.
Dry Tortugas show positive trends: Protected area slowly rebounding
A team of 38 research divers from the University of Miami (UM) Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, NOAA Fisheries Service, the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission, the National Park Service, REEF, and the University of North Carolina at Wilmington recently completed a successful 20-day biennial census to measure how the protected status of the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary's Tortugas Ecological Reserve and Dry Tortugas National Park's Research Natural Area are helping the regional ecosystem rebound from decades of overfishing and environmental changes.
Recipe for a storm: The ingredients for more powerful Atlantic hurricanes
As the world warms, the interaction between the Atlantic Ocean and atmosphere may be the recipe for stronger, more frequent hurricanes.
Frequency of Atlantic hurricanes doubled over last century, climate change suspected
About twice as many Atlantic hurricanes form each year on average than a century ago, according to a new statistical analysis of hurricanes and tropical storms in the north Atlantic.
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