Rising sea levels set to have major impacts around the world

March 10, 2009

Research presented today at the International Scientific Congress on Climate Change in Copenhagen shows that the upper range of sea level rise by 2100 could be in the range of about one meter, or possibly more. In the lower end of the spectrum it looks increasingly unlikely that sea level rise will be much less than 50 cm by 2100. This means that if emissions of greenhouse gases is not reduced quickly and substantially, even the best case scenario will hit low lying coastal areas housing one in ten humans on the planet hard.

Dr John Church of the Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia and the lead speaker in the sea level session, told the conference, "The most recent satellite and ground based observations show that sea-level rise is continuing to rise at 3 mm/yr or more since 1993, a rate well above the 20th century average. The oceans are continuing to warm and expand, the melting of mountain glacier has increased and the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica are also contributing to sea level rise."

New insights reported include the loss of ice from the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets. "The ice loss in Greenland has accelerated over the last decade. The upper range of sea level rise by 2100 might be above 1m or more on a global average, with large regional differences depending where the source of ice loss occurs", says Konrad Steffen, Director of the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES) at the University of Colorado, Boulder and co-chair of the congress session on sea level rise.

The last assessment report from the IPCC from 2007 projected a sea level rise of 18 - 59 centimeter. However the report also clearly stated that not all factors contributing to sea level rise could be calculated at that time. The uncertainty was centered on the ice sheets, how they react to the effects of a warmer climate and how they interact with the oceans, explains Eric Rignot, Professor of Earth System Science at the University of California Irvine and Senior Research Scientist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

"The numbers from the last IPCC are a lower bound because it was recognized at the time that there was a lot of uncertainty about ice sheets. The numerical models used at the time did not have a complete representation of outlet glaciers and their interactions with the ocean. The results gathered in the last 2-3 years show that these are fundamental aspects that cannot be overlooked. As a result of the acceleration of outlet glaciers over large regions, the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica are already contributing more and faster to sea level rise than anticipated. If this trend continues, we are likely to witness sea level rise one meter or more by year 2100", he says.

"Unless we undertake urgent and significant mitigation actions, the climate could cross a threshold during the 21st century committing the world to a sea level rise of metres", said John Church

"Measurements around the world show that sea level has risen almost 20 centimeters since 1880," explains Professor Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, who will give the plenary speech on sea level rise at the congress. These data also reveal that the rate of sea level rise is closely linked to temperature: sea level rises faster the warmer it gets. "If sea level keeps rising at a constant pace, we will end up in the middle of that 18-59 cm IPCC range by 2100," says Rahmstorf. "But based on past experience I expect that sea level rise will accelerate as the planet gets hotter."

The impacts of sea level rise - even in the lower ranges of the current predictions - looks to be severe. Approximately ten percent of the worlds population - 600 million people - live in low lying areas in danger of being flooded (1). A previously released study led by John Church, shows that even a modest sea level rise of 50 centimeters will result in a major increase in the number of coastal flooding events.

"Our study centered on Australia showed that coastal flooding events that today we expect only once every hundred years will happen several times a year by 2100", says John Church.

John Church also brings new results of the current sea level rise to the congress, "Sea level is currently rising at a rate that is above any of the model projections of 18 to 59 cm".

"Different groups may come to slightly different projections, but differences in the details of the projections should not cloud the overall picture where even the lower end of the projections looks to have very serious effects," says Konrad Steffen.
About the congress

The International Scientific Congress on Climate Change is taking place in Copenhagen 10 ? 12 March. More than 2,000 participants are registered. The congress has received almost 1,600 scientific contributions from researchers from more than 70 countries. The preliminary conclusions from the congress will be presented Thursday 12 March at the closing session of the congress and will be developed in a synthesis report to be published in June this year. The synthesis report will be handed over to all participants at the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP15) in December in Copenhagen by the Danish Government.

It is organized by International Alliance of Research Universities (IARU):

* Australian National University
* ETH Zürich
* National University of Singapore
* Peking University
* University of California, Berkeley
* University of Cambridge
* University of Copenhagen
* University of Oxford
* University of Tokyo
* Yale University

(1) The rising tide: assessing the risks od climate change and human settlements in low elevation costal zones. Gordon McGranahan, Deborah Balk, and Bridget Anderson; Environment and Urbanization, Apr 2007; vol. 19: pp. 17-37.

University of Copenhagen

---

---

	Sea Level by Lions Gate (Publisher) Pup, a bamboo shark, discovers egg sacs while playing around the ocean with his friends. When he sees human poachers stealing the eggs from his reef, Pup makes it his mission to save his family. As he leaves the sea and enters the beautiful, yet dangerous, world of humans he'll prove he isn't too small to save his family. Languages: English Subtitles: English & Spanish Special Features: - Behind the Scenes - Sculpture Design - Concept Art - Trailer Gallery
	Sea Level by Nancy Kilgore (Author) Brigid Peterson is the new minister in the remote seaside town of Sand Hill.  The year is 1980 and her parishioners are wary and even hostile to a woman in the pulpit.  She finds a kindred spirit in her new friend Mary Bradley, an artist who believes in the goddess.  But Mary has fallen hopelessly in love with a local drifter, and Brigid's marriage is beginning to crumble, and when Brigid preaches about the female side of God, the whole town divides over her.  Both women have to dive deeper into their spiritual life to find the way through. Sea Level is a story about ordinary small town life, the mystical landscape of the Delmarva Peninsula, and the passions that erupt over conflicts of belief.
	Sea Level: Adventures of a Saltwater Angler by Jeffrey Cardenas (Author) Sea Level, by Jeffrey Cardenas, author of the acclaimed Marquesa, is a collection of vivid essays on saltwater fly fishing written over the past twenty years. This book is a pure delight--so filled with fresh original language that it forms a unique portrait of an artist, a writer, and an expert angler and naturalist. And it is the author's quiet, observant and steady hand that guides us on a wide range of adventures: from the Gulf Coast to Cuba; from the Florida Keys and Bahamas to the North Atlantic. Sea Level exudes the highest level of angling skill and will be required reading for years to come.
	Sea Level by Sea Level (Author) Track: 1. Rain In Spain 6:47 2. Shake A Leg 3:53 3. Tidal Wave 5:40 4. Country Fool 3:40 5. Nothing Matters But The Fever 7:20 6. Grand Larceny 5:23 7. Scarborough Fair 5:31 8. Just A Good Feeling 3:01
	Ocean Creatures Library (A Set of 5 "I Love Reading" Level 2 Readers) The Ocean Creatures Library brings together 5 popular level 2 books from the "I Love Reading" series. Young readers will learn about the starfish, seahorse, octopus, jellyfish and shark. Bright, colorful photography and bold text will keep young readers engaged. Information presented includes facts about how each animal eats, moves, and survives. By bestselling children's author Cindy Bracken.
	DK Readers: Pirates: Raiders of the High Seas (Level 4: Proficient Readers) by Christopher Maynard (Author), Harriet Griffey (Author), Harriet Griffey (Contributor) Meet Pirates who got away with murder... and pirates who died in the hangman's noose! These 48-page books about fascinating subjects like pirates, mummies, and volcanoes are for proficient readers who can understand a rich vocabulary and challenging sentence structure. In addition to the stunning photographs, informative sidebars, and glossary, readers will find archival photographs and paintings. Averaging 4,500 to 5,000 words in length, Level 4 books are 40 percent pictures and 40 percent text. The Dorling Kindersley Readers combine an enticing visual layout with high-interest, easy-to-read stories to captivate and delight young bookworms who are just getting started. Written by leading children's authors and compiled in consultation with literacy experts, these engaging books build...
	DK Readers: Disasters at Sea (Level 3: Reading Alone) by Andrew Donkin (Author) From fog, ice, and rocks to cannon fire and torpedo attacks--read the story of five doomed sea voyages and the fate of those who took part in them. The 48-page Level 3 books, designed for children who can read on their own, contain more complex sentence structure and more detail. Young readers will devour these kid-friendly titles, which cover high-interest topics such as sharks, and the Bermuda Triangle, as well as classics like Aladdin. Information boxes highlight historical references, trivia, pronunciation, and other facts about words and names mentioned. Averaging 2,400 to 2,800 words, these books offer a 50/50 picture-to-text ratio. The Dorling Kindersley Readers combine an enticing visual layout with high-interest, easy-to-read stories to captivate and delight young bookworms who...
	Under the Sea (Beginners Nature: Level 1) by Fiona Patchett (Author), Tetsuo Kushii (Illustrator), Zoe Wray (Illustrator) What lives at the bottom of the sea? What does a shark really eat? How does a sea horse swim? In this book you'll find the answers and lots more about the fascinating things which live under the sea. Under the Sea is part of an exciting series of books for children who are beginning to read on their own. The easy-to-read text has been specially written with the help of a reading expert.
	The Sedimentary Record of Sea-Level Change by Angela L. Coe (Author), Dan W. J. Bosence (Author), Kevin D. Church (Author), Stephen S. Flint (Author), John A. Howell (Author), R. Chris L. Wilson (Author) This illustrated textbook describes how past changes in sea-level can be detected through an analysis of the sedimentary record, and how sequence stratigraphy techniques can provide explanations of how the sedimentary system evolves through geological time. Designed for use in undergraduate and graduate courses, it includes detailed case studies, set-aside focus boxes, and bulleted Questions and Answers interspersed throughout. The book is also supported by a website hosting sample pages.
	Dive! A Book Of Deep Sea Creatures (level 3) (Hello Reader, Science) by Mel Berger (Author)