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Relocation, relocation, relocation
April 02, 2009Math could address climate change population concerns
As sea levels rise in the wake of climate change and semi-arid regions turn to desert, people living in those parts of the world are likely to be displaced. A mathematical approach to planned relocation reported in the International Journal of Mathematics and Operational Research.
Decision scientist Sajjad Zahir at the University of Lethbridge, Alberta, Canada, and colleagues Ruhul Sarker of the University of New South Wales, Canberra, Australia and Ziaul Al-Mahmud of Lethbridge Community Network, have devised a mathematical algorithm to address the problem of population relocation.
The team's multi-objective optimization approach will help governments decide what fraction of a population would need to be relocated and how many people could stay behind for effective adaptation to climate change.
The "multi-objective" nature of the calculation takes into account people's preferences, various costs, and planning priorities with the ultimate aim of ensuring that the issue of relocation is addressed fairly and is economically viable.
Although mitigation measures are vitally important for controlling greenhouse gas emissions, there are limitations to such efforts novel approaches to allow us to adapt successfully to the effects of climate change are now needed, the researchers say. They point out that large-scale cross-border migrations may not be a feasible solution to land loss because of the societal costs and the effects on labor. An influx of environmental refugees from the worst affected parts of the developing world is also likely to face opposition from the developed world, they add.
The team's decision analysis factors in the "value" of new opportunities, lost opportunities, transportation costs, adaptation costs and other variables. This allows them to balance the books in terms of how migration would affect a population.
"To make adaptation a success, part of the population must be prepared to adapt to new or different work opportunities and living conditions and others may have to be relocated in a planned way to new locations that require accepting different working and environmental conditions," the researchers conclude, "Our methodology lets us find the fraction of people who would be relocated and who would stay in an optimal manner."
Inderscience Publishers
The team's multi-objective optimization approach will help governments decide what fraction of a population would need to be relocated and how many people could stay behind for effective adaptation to climate change.
The "multi-objective" nature of the calculation takes into account people's preferences, various costs, and planning priorities with the ultimate aim of ensuring that the issue of relocation is addressed fairly and is economically viable.
Although mitigation measures are vitally important for controlling greenhouse gas emissions, there are limitations to such efforts novel approaches to allow us to adapt successfully to the effects of climate change are now needed, the researchers say. They point out that large-scale cross-border migrations may not be a feasible solution to land loss because of the societal costs and the effects on labor. An influx of environmental refugees from the worst affected parts of the developing world is also likely to face opposition from the developed world, they add.
The team's decision analysis factors in the "value" of new opportunities, lost opportunities, transportation costs, adaptation costs and other variables. This allows them to balance the books in terms of how migration would affect a population.
"To make adaptation a success, part of the population must be prepared to adapt to new or different work opportunities and living conditions and others may have to be relocated in a planned way to new locations that require accepting different working and environmental conditions," the researchers conclude, "Our methodology lets us find the fraction of people who would be relocated and who would stay in an optimal manner."
Inderscience Publishers
Climate Change Current Events and Climate Change News RSSAntarctica glacier retreat creates new carbon dioxide store
Large blooms of tiny marine plants called phytoplankton are flourishing in areas of open water left exposed by the recent and rapid melting of ice shelves and glaciers around the Antarctic Peninsula.
DNA barcodes: Creative new uses span health, fraud, smuggling, history, more
The scientific ability to quickly and accurately identify species through DNA "barcoding" is being embraced and applied by a growing legion of global authorities - from medical and agricultural researchers to police and customs authorities to palaeontologists and others.
Past climate of the northern Antarctic Peninsular informs global warming debate
The seriousness of current global warming is underlined by a reconstruction of climate at Maxwell Bay in the South Shetland Islands of the Antarctic Peninsula over approximately the last 14,000 years, which appears to show that the current warming and widespread loss of glacial ice are unprecedented.
Nitrogen loss threatens desert plant life, study shows
As the climate gets warmer, arid soils lose nitrogen as gas, reports a new Cornell study. That could lead to deserts with even less plant life than they sustain today, say the researchers.
Deep creep means milder, more frequent earthquakes along Southern California's San Jacinto fault
With an average of four mini-earthquakes per day, Southern California's San Jacinto fault constantly adjusts to make it a less likely candidate for a major earthquake than its quiet neighbor to the east, the Southern San Andreas fault, according to an article in the journal Nature Geoscience.
Researchers Hail Innovative Plan to Save Rainforest, Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions
An innovative proposal by the Ecuadorian government to protect an untouched, oil rich region of Amazon rainforest is a precedent-setting and potentially economically viable approach, says a team of environmental researchers from the University of Maryland, the World Resources Institute and Save America's Forests.
Paleoecologists offer new insight into how climate change will affect organisms
An article in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science written by a team of ecologists, including Robert Booth, assistant professor of earth and environmental science at Lehigh University, examines some of the potential problems with current prediction methods and calls for the use of a range of approaches when predicting the impact of climate change on organisms.
Report on US-China collaboration on carbon capture and sequestration
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory's Julio Friedmann, in collaboration with the Center for American Progress, the Asia Society Center and with partner Monitor Group, today released the report, "A Roadmap for U.S.-China Collaboration on Carbon Capture and Sequestration."
Study gives clearer picture of how land-use changes affect U.S. climate
Researchers say regional surface temperatures can be affected by land use, suggesting that local and regional strategies, such as creating green spaces and buffer zones in and around urban areas, could be a tool in addressing climate change.
Calm before the spawn: Climate change and coral spawning
What's the point of setting up marine reserves to protect coral reefs from pollution, ship groundings and overfishing if climate change could cause far more damage? A study published this week in London in Proceedings of the Royal Society B provides the answer.
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