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Relocation, relocation, relocation
April 02, 2009Math could address climate change population concerns
As sea levels rise in the wake of climate change and semi-arid regions turn to desert, people living in those parts of the world are likely to be displaced. A mathematical approach to planned relocation reported in the International Journal of Mathematics and Operational Research.
Decision scientist Sajjad Zahir at the University of Lethbridge, Alberta, Canada, and colleagues Ruhul Sarker of the University of New South Wales, Canberra, Australia and Ziaul Al-Mahmud of Lethbridge Community Network, have devised a mathematical algorithm to address the problem of population relocation.
The team's multi-objective optimization approach will help governments decide what fraction of a population would need to be relocated and how many people could stay behind for effective adaptation to climate change.
The "multi-objective" nature of the calculation takes into account people's preferences, various costs, and planning priorities with the ultimate aim of ensuring that the issue of relocation is addressed fairly and is economically viable.
Although mitigation measures are vitally important for controlling greenhouse gas emissions, there are limitations to such efforts novel approaches to allow us to adapt successfully to the effects of climate change are now needed, the researchers say. They point out that large-scale cross-border migrations may not be a feasible solution to land loss because of the societal costs and the effects on labor. An influx of environmental refugees from the worst affected parts of the developing world is also likely to face opposition from the developed world, they add.
The team's decision analysis factors in the "value" of new opportunities, lost opportunities, transportation costs, adaptation costs and other variables. This allows them to balance the books in terms of how migration would affect a population.
"To make adaptation a success, part of the population must be prepared to adapt to new or different work opportunities and living conditions and others may have to be relocated in a planned way to new locations that require accepting different working and environmental conditions," the researchers conclude, "Our methodology lets us find the fraction of people who would be relocated and who would stay in an optimal manner."
Inderscience Publishers
The team's multi-objective optimization approach will help governments decide what fraction of a population would need to be relocated and how many people could stay behind for effective adaptation to climate change.
The "multi-objective" nature of the calculation takes into account people's preferences, various costs, and planning priorities with the ultimate aim of ensuring that the issue of relocation is addressed fairly and is economically viable.
Although mitigation measures are vitally important for controlling greenhouse gas emissions, there are limitations to such efforts novel approaches to allow us to adapt successfully to the effects of climate change are now needed, the researchers say. They point out that large-scale cross-border migrations may not be a feasible solution to land loss because of the societal costs and the effects on labor. An influx of environmental refugees from the worst affected parts of the developing world is also likely to face opposition from the developed world, they add.
The team's decision analysis factors in the "value" of new opportunities, lost opportunities, transportation costs, adaptation costs and other variables. This allows them to balance the books in terms of how migration would affect a population.
"To make adaptation a success, part of the population must be prepared to adapt to new or different work opportunities and living conditions and others may have to be relocated in a planned way to new locations that require accepting different working and environmental conditions," the researchers conclude, "Our methodology lets us find the fraction of people who would be relocated and who would stay in an optimal manner."
Inderscience Publishers
Climate Change Current Events and Climate Change News RSSFirst comprehensive review of the state of Antarctica's climate
The first comprehensive review of the state of Antarctica's climate and its relationship to the global climate system is published this week (Tuesday 1 December) by the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR).
Past regional cold and warm periods linked to natural climate drivers
Intervals of regional warmth and cold in the past are linked to the El Niño phenomenon and the so-called "North Atlantic Oscillation" in the Northern hemisphere's jet stream, according to a team of climate scientists. These linkages may be important in assessing the regional effects of future climate change.
Peat fires drive temperatures up
Peatlands, especially those in tropical regions, sequester gigantic amounts of organic carbon. Human activities are now having a considerable impact on these wetlands.
Traditional indigenous fire management techniques deployed against climate change
A landmark Australian project that mitigates the extent and severity of natural savannah blazes by deploying traditional Indigenous fire management techniques is being hailed as a model with vast global potential in the fights against climate change and biodiversity loss, and for protecting Indigenous lands and culture.
Caltech scientists explain puzzling lake asymmetry on Titan
Researchers at the California Institute of Technology (Caltech) suggest that the eccentricity of Saturn's orbit around the sun may be responsible for the unusually uneven distribution of lakes over the northern and southern polar regions of the planet's largest moon, Titan.
Making sense of greenhouse gas accounting
Waste management is increasingly gaining the recognition that it deserves as a major contributor to mitigating climate change.
Climate change could boost incidence of civil war in Africa
Climate change could increase the likelihood of civil war in sub-Saharan Africa by over 50 percent within the next two decades.
We're off then: the evolution of bat migration
Not just birds, but also a few species of bats face a long journey every year. Researchers at Princeton University in the U.S. and at the Max Planck Institute for Ornithology in Radolfzell, Germany studied the migratory behaviour of the largest extant family of bats, the so-called "Vespertilionidae" with the help of mathematical models.
Researchers establish common seasonal pattern among bacterial communities in Arctic rivers
New research on bacterial communities throughout six large Arctic river ecosystems reveals predictable temporal patterns, suggesting that scientists could use these communities as markers for monitoring climate change in the polar regions.
Flax and yellow flowers can produce bioethanol
Surplus biomass from the production of flax shives, and generated from Brassica carinata, a yellow-flowered plant related to those which engulf fields in spring, can be used to produce bioethanol.
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