 |
|
Berkeley Lab Scientists Contribute to Major New Report Describing Climate Change Impacts on the U.S.
June 17, 2009Berkeley, CA-Two researchers at the U.S. Department of Energy's Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab), Evan Mills and Michael Wehner, contributed to the analysis of the effects of climate change on all regions of the United States, described in a major report released today by the multi-agency U.S. Global Change Research Program.
For the southwest region of the United States, which includes California, the report forecasts a hotter, drier climate with significant effects on the environment, agriculture and health.
"Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States" covers such effects as changes in rainfall patterns, drought, wildfire, Atlantic hurricanes, and effects on food production, fish stocks and other wildlife, energy, agriculture, water supplies, and coastal communities.
"This is the most thorough and up-to-date review ever assembled of climate-change impacts observed to date as well as those anticipated in the future across the United States," says Evan Mills, one of the Berkeley Lab scientists who contributed to the report. While the report paints an ominous picture of potential impacts, "the good news is that the harshest impacts of future climate change can be avoided if the nation takes deliberate action soon. This can be done through a balanced mix of activities to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions and adaptation to the otherwise unavoidable impacts," says Mills.
The report addresses nine zones of the United States (Southwest, Northwest, Great Plains, Midwest, Southeast, Northeast, Alaska, U.S. islands, and coasts), and describes potential climate change effects in each. California is part of the southwest zone, as well as a coastal zone.
Wehner, who is a climate researcher in the Scientific Computing Group of Berkeley Lab's Computational Research Division, developed projections of future climate change for the report chapters covering global and national impacts of climate change. One of Wehner's research interests is extreme weather conditions resulting from climate change.
The precipitation map shown is one of the projections developed by Wehner. It shows, among other things, a substantial reduction in springtime rains in California, and summertime rains in the Pacific Northwest.
"Even in areas where precipitation is projected to increase, higher temperatures will cause greater evaporation leading to a future where drought conditions are the normal state. In the southwest United States, water resource issues will become a major issue," says Wehner.
Another of Wehner's graphics shows past and future projections of the global mean surface air temperature, an indicator of the magnitude of the effects of global climate change. The three different trajectories after 2009 show low emissions, and two high emissions scenarios of how the temperature increase caused by greenhouse gas emissions could play out. The projections are based on the most sophisticated climate models available.
"These and similar projections reveal that actions taken today would take several decades to make any noticeable change in the rate of warming. This is one of the factors that makes climate change a difficult policy issue. There is no instant gratification," says Wehner.
Mills, who studies climate change and the insurance industry in the Environmental Energy Technologies Division of Berkeley Lab, worked on the report's sections addressing impacts on society and on the energy sector. The insurance industry has been one of the early responders to the threats posed by climate change, because the industry has been a leader in preventive education against catastrophes such as fire and windstorm hazards. Extreme weather conditions, and the resulting damage, will probably impact the industry's bottom line, possibly severely, as well as that of government provided insurance programs for floods and crops.
"Insurance is one of the industries particularly vulnerable to increasing extreme weather events such as severe storms, but it also is beginning to help society manage the risks," says Mills. "Insurance, the world's largest industry, will be one of the primary mechanisms through which the costs of climate change are distributed across society. Some insurers are emerging as partners in climate science and the formulation of public policy and adaptation strategies. Others have recognized that mitigation and adaptation can work hand in hand in a coordinated climate risk-management strategy and are offering "green" insurance products designed to capture these dual benefits."
A Drier California
Decline in precipitation and water supplies will likely be one of the most prominent effects of climate change in California and other states of the southwest (Nevada, Arizona, Utah, Colorado, and New Mexico). The report suggests that runoff will decline from 10 to 40 percent in 2040 to 2060 relative to the 1901-1970 baseline, and warns that scarce water supplies will call for trade-offs among competing uses.
"Floods and droughts are likely to become much more common and intense as regional and seasonal precipitation patterns change and rainfall is more concentrated into heavy events with longer dry periods in between," it states.
There will likely be less snow, with more winter precipitation falling as rain, and the wet areas will get wetter as dry areas get dryer. The region will likely see declines in the mountain snowpack, and runoff will shift to earlier in spring, reducing water flows later in the year in the summer. California is strongly dependent on spring and summer runoff to supply water for residential, commercial and agricultural uses.
Agriculture in California will likely face increasing stress from the decline in runoff and drought, as well as increasing air temperatures, and the probable rise in agricultural pests and weeds expected in a warmer climate. Flooding and storm surges are threats to coastal regions.
Forest growth in the west will decrease because of the decreasing availability of water. This will also put additional stress on salmon, trout and other coldwater fish. Superinfestations of insects will cause ecological and economic damages to timberlands.
A Hotter California
Increasing air temperatures attributed to global warming are expected to cause a rise in the number of heat-related illnesses in the 2080 to 2099 timeframe. In parts of southern California, the state's southern Central Valley, and western Arizona, for instance, the number of days in which the temperature exceeds 100°F could exceed 120 under the report's higher emissions scenario.
Changes in the nation's population and distribution could combine to amplify the probability of increasing heat-related disease. As the nation ages, its older members move to warmer areas of the country including the desert southwest.
Another effect of these higher temperatures will be increased energy demand. The report predicts "increases in demand for cooling energy" in California as well as elsewhere, which will result in "significant increases in electricity use and higher peak demand in most regions." Mills contributed analysis to the report of the strongly rising role of extreme weather events in causing electric power disruptions, while non-weather-related events show no upward trend.
Next Steps
Research is underway at Berkeley Lab that addresses many aspects of climate change. Scientists in its Earth Sciences, Computational Research and Environmental Energy Technologies Divisions are simulating earth's climate to better understand how climate change will affect the planet. CRD is developing green computing technology. The Joint BioEnergy Institute-one of three DOE Bioenergy Research Centers nationwide supported by the Office of Biological and Environmental Research within the DOE Office of Science-and other Berkeley Lab programs are developing carbon-neutral biofuels for transportation.
Berkeley Lab is a U.S. Department of Energy national laboratory located in Berkeley, California. It conducts unclassified scientific research and is managed by the University of California. Visit our website at http://www.lbl.gov.
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
"This is the most thorough and up-to-date review ever assembled of climate-change impacts observed to date as well as those anticipated in the future across the United States," says Evan Mills, one of the Berkeley Lab scientists who contributed to the report. While the report paints an ominous picture of potential impacts, "the good news is that the harshest impacts of future climate change can be avoided if the nation takes deliberate action soon. This can be done through a balanced mix of activities to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions and adaptation to the otherwise unavoidable impacts," says Mills.
The report addresses nine zones of the United States (Southwest, Northwest, Great Plains, Midwest, Southeast, Northeast, Alaska, U.S. islands, and coasts), and describes potential climate change effects in each. California is part of the southwest zone, as well as a coastal zone.
Wehner, who is a climate researcher in the Scientific Computing Group of Berkeley Lab's Computational Research Division, developed projections of future climate change for the report chapters covering global and national impacts of climate change. One of Wehner's research interests is extreme weather conditions resulting from climate change.
The precipitation map shown is one of the projections developed by Wehner. It shows, among other things, a substantial reduction in springtime rains in California, and summertime rains in the Pacific Northwest.
"Even in areas where precipitation is projected to increase, higher temperatures will cause greater evaporation leading to a future where drought conditions are the normal state. In the southwest United States, water resource issues will become a major issue," says Wehner.
Another of Wehner's graphics shows past and future projections of the global mean surface air temperature, an indicator of the magnitude of the effects of global climate change. The three different trajectories after 2009 show low emissions, and two high emissions scenarios of how the temperature increase caused by greenhouse gas emissions could play out. The projections are based on the most sophisticated climate models available.
"These and similar projections reveal that actions taken today would take several decades to make any noticeable change in the rate of warming. This is one of the factors that makes climate change a difficult policy issue. There is no instant gratification," says Wehner.
Mills, who studies climate change and the insurance industry in the Environmental Energy Technologies Division of Berkeley Lab, worked on the report's sections addressing impacts on society and on the energy sector. The insurance industry has been one of the early responders to the threats posed by climate change, because the industry has been a leader in preventive education against catastrophes such as fire and windstorm hazards. Extreme weather conditions, and the resulting damage, will probably impact the industry's bottom line, possibly severely, as well as that of government provided insurance programs for floods and crops.
"Insurance is one of the industries particularly vulnerable to increasing extreme weather events such as severe storms, but it also is beginning to help society manage the risks," says Mills. "Insurance, the world's largest industry, will be one of the primary mechanisms through which the costs of climate change are distributed across society. Some insurers are emerging as partners in climate science and the formulation of public policy and adaptation strategies. Others have recognized that mitigation and adaptation can work hand in hand in a coordinated climate risk-management strategy and are offering "green" insurance products designed to capture these dual benefits."
A Drier California
Decline in precipitation and water supplies will likely be one of the most prominent effects of climate change in California and other states of the southwest (Nevada, Arizona, Utah, Colorado, and New Mexico). The report suggests that runoff will decline from 10 to 40 percent in 2040 to 2060 relative to the 1901-1970 baseline, and warns that scarce water supplies will call for trade-offs among competing uses.
"Floods and droughts are likely to become much more common and intense as regional and seasonal precipitation patterns change and rainfall is more concentrated into heavy events with longer dry periods in between," it states.
There will likely be less snow, with more winter precipitation falling as rain, and the wet areas will get wetter as dry areas get dryer. The region will likely see declines in the mountain snowpack, and runoff will shift to earlier in spring, reducing water flows later in the year in the summer. California is strongly dependent on spring and summer runoff to supply water for residential, commercial and agricultural uses.
Agriculture in California will likely face increasing stress from the decline in runoff and drought, as well as increasing air temperatures, and the probable rise in agricultural pests and weeds expected in a warmer climate. Flooding and storm surges are threats to coastal regions.
Forest growth in the west will decrease because of the decreasing availability of water. This will also put additional stress on salmon, trout and other coldwater fish. Superinfestations of insects will cause ecological and economic damages to timberlands.
A Hotter California
Increasing air temperatures attributed to global warming are expected to cause a rise in the number of heat-related illnesses in the 2080 to 2099 timeframe. In parts of southern California, the state's southern Central Valley, and western Arizona, for instance, the number of days in which the temperature exceeds 100°F could exceed 120 under the report's higher emissions scenario.
Changes in the nation's population and distribution could combine to amplify the probability of increasing heat-related disease. As the nation ages, its older members move to warmer areas of the country including the desert southwest.
Another effect of these higher temperatures will be increased energy demand. The report predicts "increases in demand for cooling energy" in California as well as elsewhere, which will result in "significant increases in electricity use and higher peak demand in most regions." Mills contributed analysis to the report of the strongly rising role of extreme weather events in causing electric power disruptions, while non-weather-related events show no upward trend.
Next Steps
Research is underway at Berkeley Lab that addresses many aspects of climate change. Scientists in its Earth Sciences, Computational Research and Environmental Energy Technologies Divisions are simulating earth's climate to better understand how climate change will affect the planet. CRD is developing green computing technology. The Joint BioEnergy Institute-one of three DOE Bioenergy Research Centers nationwide supported by the Office of Biological and Environmental Research within the DOE Office of Science-and other Berkeley Lab programs are developing carbon-neutral biofuels for transportation.
Berkeley Lab is a U.S. Department of Energy national laboratory located in Berkeley, California. It conducts unclassified scientific research and is managed by the University of California. Visit our website at http://www.lbl.gov.
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Climate Change Current Events and Climate Change News RSSScientists at UA, collaborating institutions decode maize genome
Scientists from the University of Arizona led by Arizona Genomics Institute director Rod A. Wing and from collaborating institutions have deciphered the complete genetic code of the maize plant for the first time.
ORNL, Los Alamos pioneer new approach to assist scientists, farmers
Sustainable farming, initially adopted to preserve soil quality for future generations, may also play a role in maintaining a healthy climate, according to researchers at the Department of Energy's Oak Ridge and Los Alamos national laboratories.
Research challenges for understanding landscape changes identified
Nine research challenges and four research initiatives that are poised to advance the study of how Earth's landscapes change were unveiled today in a new report by the National Research Council.
Berkeley Lab Lends Expertise to India to Promote Energy Efficiency
ndia may rank only a distant fourth in terms of carbon dioxide emissions, behind China, the United States and Russia, but its rapid economic growth rate coupled with aging and inefficient energy infrastructure suggest dire environmental consequences if "business as usual" continues.
Experts: Failure to focus on farming will undermine global climate agreement and increase hunger
Alarmed by a substantial oversight in the global climate talks leading up to the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen next month, more than 60 of the world's most prominent agricultural scientists and leaders underscored how the almost total absence of agriculture in the agreement could lead to widespread famine and food shortages in the years ahead.
Study: Sea stars bulk up to beat the heat
A new study finds that a species of sea star stays cool using a strategy never before seen in the animal kingdom. The sea stars soak up cold sea water into their bodies during high tide as buffer against potentially damaging temperatures brought about by direct sunlight at low tide.
Emulating Western lifestyles: Consumption and carbon footprints in less industrialized countries
In recent decades, a new global middle class has exploded, with a total population exceeding one billion people. A new study in the Journal of Consumer Research explores the consumption attitudes of some of these members of the "new class."
TEEB report released on the economics of ecosystems and biodiversity for policy makers
Policy makers who factor the planet's multi-trillion dollar ecosystem services into their national and international investment strategies are likely to see far higher rates of return and stronger economic growth in the 21st century.
New Water Management Tool May Help Ease Effects of Drought
Continued improvement of climate forecasts is resulting in better information about what rainfall and streamflow may look like months in advance.
Record highs far outpace record lows across US
Spurred by a warming climate, daily record high temperatures occurred twice as often as record lows over the last decade across the continental United States, new research shows.
More Climate Change Current Events and Climate Change News Articles
 |
Climate Change: Picturing the Science by Gavin Schmidt (Author), Joshua Wolfe (Author), Jeffrey D. Sachs (Foreword) An unprecedented union of scientific analysis and stunning photography illustrating the effects of climate change on the global ecosystem. Going beyond the headlines, this work by leading NASA climate scientist Gavin Schmidt and master photographer Joshua Wolfe illustrates as never before the ramifications of shifting climate. Photographic spreads show retreating glaciers, sinking villages in Alaska’s tundra, and drying lakes. The text follows adventurous scientists through the ice caps at the poles to the coral reefs of the tropical seas. Marshaling data spanning centuries and continents, the book sparkles with cutting-edge research and visual records, including contributions from experts on atmospheric science, oceanography, paleoclimatology, technology, politics, and... |
 |
The Rough Guide to Climate Change, 2nd Edition by Robert Henson (Author) The Rough Guide to Climate Change gives the complete picture of the single biggest issue facing the planet. Cutting a swathe through scientific research and political debate, this completely updated 2nd edition lays out the facts and assesses the options- global and personal- for dealing with the threat of a warming world. The guide looks at the evolution of our atmosphere over the last 4.5 billion years and what computer simulations of climate change reveal about our past, present, and future. This updated edition includes new information from the 2007 report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and an updated politics section to reflect post-Kyoto developments. Discover how rising temperatures and sea levels, plus changes to extreme weather patterns, are already affecting... |
 |
Climate Change: A Multidisciplinary Approach by William James Burroughs (Author) Providing a concise, up-to-date presentation of current knowledge of climate change and its implications for society as a whole, this new edition has been thoroughly updated and extended to include the latest information. The text describes the components of the global climate, considers how the many elements of climate combine to define its behaviour, and reviews how climate change is measured. The author discusses how the causes of climate change can be related to the evidence of change, and modelled to predict future changes. This book is ideally suited for introductory courses in meteorology, oceanography, environmental science, earth science, geography, agriculture and social science. It contains review questions at the end of each chapter to enable readers to monitor their... |
 |
The Science and Politics of Global Climate Change: A Guide to the Debate by Andrew E. Dessler (Author), Edward A. Parson (Author) Climate variability has become the primary environmental concern of the 21st Century. Yet, despite the scientific community's warnings of the imminent dangers of global warming, politicians world-wide have failed to agree on what to do about this potentially devastating environmental problem. This introductory primer informs scientists, policy makers and the general public by clarifying the conflicting claims of the debate. |
 |
What We Know About Climate Change (Boston Review Books) by Kerry Emanuel (Author), Judith A. Layzer (Afterword), William R. Moomaw (Afterword) The vast majority of scientists agree that human activity has significantly increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere—most dramatically since the 1970s. In February 2007 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change found that global warming is "unequivocal" and that human-produced carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are chiefly to blame, to a certainty of more than 90 percent. Yet global warming skeptics and ill-informed elected officials continue to dismiss this broad scientific consensus. In What We Know About Climate Change, MIT atmospheric scientist Kerry Emanuel outlines the basic science of global warming and how the current consensus has emerged. Although it is impossible to predict exactly when the most dramatic effects of global warming will be felt, he argues, we can... |
 |
Climate Change: The Science of Global Warming and Our Energy Future by Edmond A. Mathez (Author) Climate Change is geared toward a variety of students and general readers who seek the real science behind global warming. Exquisitely illustrated, the text introduces the basic science underlying both the natural progress of climate change and the effect of human activity on the deteriorating health of our planet. Noted expert and author Edmond A. Mathez synthesizes the work of leading scholars in climatology and related fields, and he concludes with an extensive chapter on energy production, anchoring this volume in economic and technological realities and suggesting ways to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions. Climate Change opens with the climate system fundamentals: the workings of the atmosphere and ocean, their chemical interactions via the carbon cycle, and the scientific... |
 |
The Ethics of Climate Change: Right and Wrong in a Warming World (Think Now) by James Garvey (Author) The debate about the existence of climate change seems finally at an end. We now have to decide what to do about it. Here, James Garvey argues that the ultimate rationale for action on climate change cannot be simply economic, political, scientific or social, though no doubt our decisions should be informed by such things. Instead, climate change is largely a moral problem. What we should do about it depends on what matters to us and what we think is right.This book is an introduction to the ethics of climate change. It considers a little climate science and a lot of moral philosophy, ultimately finding a way into the many possible positions associated with climate change. It is also a call for action, for doing something about the moral demands placed on both governments and individuals... |
 |
Climate Confusion: How Global Warming Hysteria Leads to Bad Science, Pandering Politicians and Misguided Policies that Hurt the Poor by Roy Spencer (Author) |
 |
The Atlas of Climate Change: Mapping the World's Greatest Challenge (Atlas Of... (University of California Press)) by Kirstin Dow (Author), Thomas Downing (Author) Today's headlines and recent events reflect the gravity of climate change. Heat waves, droughts, and floods are bringing death to vulnerable populations, destroying livelihoods, and driving people from their homes. Rigorous in its science and insightful in its message, this atlas examines the causes of climate change and considers its possible impact on subsistence, water resources, ecosystems, biodiversity, health, coastal megacities, and cultural treasures. It reviews historical contributions to greenhouse gas levels, progress in meeting international commitments, and local efforts to meet the challenge of climate change. With more than 50 full-color maps and graphics, this is an essential resource for policy makers, environmentalists, students, and everyone concerned with this... |
 |
National Geographic: Six Degrees Could Change the World Starring: Alec Baldwin Directed By: Ron Bowman In a special broadcast event, National Geographic explores the startling theory that Earths average temperature could rise six degrees Celsius by the year 2100. In this amazing and insightful documentary, National Geographic illustrates, one poignant degree at a time, the consequences of rising temperatures on Earth. Also, learn how existing technologies and remedies can help in the battle to dial back the global thermometer. |
| © 2009 BrightSurf.com |