 |
|
Iowa State University researcher looks at the future of agriculture
June 25, 2009AMES, Iowa - Dramatic price fluctuations, increasing demand, the food vs. fuel debate, and other events of the past year may have food producers wondering which way is up.
Despite these recent uncertainties, 'up' is precisely the direction an Iowa State researcher believes agriculture is headed for at least the next 10 years.
Wally Huffman, professor in agricultural economics and Charles F. Curtiss Distinguished Professor in Agriculture and Life Sciences, predicts supply will go up, demand will go up, and real prices of grain and oilseeds also will go up.
"I'm very optimistic about the next 10 years," said Huffman.
Huffman presented his research to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development in Paris, France, last month. OECD and the Iowa Agricultural Experiment Station supported the research.
An important part of Huffman's study was the long-term trend of corn and soybean yields in Iowa, wheat in Kansas and France, rice in Japan and potatoes in the Netherlands. Huffman examined the trends and then made projections about the next decade.
The optimism starts with the producers.
"Prices right now for corn and soybeans are up about 50 percent relative to two years ago, so those are relatively good prices," he said. "That's good news for grain producers."
The impact that the rising demand for biofuels will have on the market for agricultural products is not entirely clear, but grain and oilseed prices will generally be higher than they would be without biofuels.
"Overall, biofuels are probably a good thing for farmers," he said. "However, there will be more erratic variation in grain and oilseed prices than there would be without biofuels," he said.
The main reasons are the erratic components to both supply and demand of crude oil.
While biofuels are pushing demand for grain and oilseeds up, Huffman says the long-term trend in supply of grain and oilseeds is due to new technologies that are being developed by the private sector and marketed to farmers.
"Supply is going up, and demand is going up," he said. "I think they will grow at a similar pace. There will be occasional spikes due to bad weather and abrupt restriction in crude oil production, but prices will come down. When they do, they will come down to similar levels to what they are now in real terms, and those are pretty good prices.
"For the past 100 years, on average, real agricultural product prices have been falling as technology has been allowing supply to increase faster than demand," he said.
But for the past decade, demand has been rising as quickly as supply, he added.
Yields for major field crops in major producing areas have been steadily increasing. There is no indication that the rate is slowing and no reason to fear falling crop yields. Huffman predicts that the rate of increase in yields for corn and soybeans in major production areas will rise much faster than it has in the past 50 years.
"In the case of corn, since 1955 the average rate of increase in Iowa crop yield has been two bushels, per acre, per year," said Huffman. "That's an amazing accomplishment starting from about 65 bushels, per acre, per year in 1955, up to about 165 bushels, per acre, per year now."
Huffman thinks the future will be even better.
"From 2010 to 2019, corn yields are going to increase quite substantially, maybe at four to six bushels, per acre, per year," he said.
Much of the increase will be due to genetic improvements in hybrid corn varieties associated with new, multiple stacking of genes for insect protection and herbicide tolerance that will permit a major increase in plant populations.
These improvements are the result of corn that has been genetically modified (GM) to have certain desirable traits.
Also, better equipment, improved farm management, and reduced- and no-till farming will contribute to rising corn yields in the Midwest.
Other commodities have also improved yield and will likely see continuing increases, according to Huffman.
Soybean yields in Iowa also are increasing, although less dramatically than corn, says Huffman.
The trend over the past 50 years is an increase of about .5 bushel, per acre, per year (bu/ac/yr). That rate of improvement in Iowa soybean yields will continue or possibly increase over the next decade. Current soybean yields are about 50 bu/ac/yr.
Kansas is the leading producer of wheat in the United States with yields of about 45 bu/ac/yr. Yields have been improving at about .5 bu/ac/yr since about 1950.
Farmers in France are producing wheat at about 113 bu/ac/yr. Yields are improving at more than 1.5 bu/ac/yr.
France is the leading wheat producer in the European Union, and Huffman attributes much of their production advantage to the French emphasis on wheat advantage. They are also showing faster production improvement. France often puts their best land into wheat production. Huffman predicts wheat yields may increase faster if GM wheat is more successful.
Japan is a major rice producer. Yields are improving at a rate of .5 bu/ac/yr, and are now at 113 bu/ac/yr compared to around 90 bu/ac/yr in 1960. GM rice has been tried, but has not measurably increased yields, according to Huffman.
Netherlands is the most advanced country in the world when it comes to potato production technology. Yields in the Netherlands have been increasing by about 4.6 bu/ac/yr over the last 50 years and are now at 670 bu/ac/yr.
"Potatoes are a major world food crop and they don't get a lot of attention," said Huffman. "They are consumed in large amounts in Europe and other places, including the United States, and yields are phenomenal."
Several variables will impact the future of crops.
According to Huffman, the biggest are:
* both private companies and government researchers are working on improving production
* higher yields as a result of new techniques in breeding crops, including methods to condense decades of breeding and testing into a few years
* change in biofuels from corn-based to biomass-based by 2019
* GM crops gain more acceptance in Europe
Iowa State University
"I'm very optimistic about the next 10 years," said Huffman.
Huffman presented his research to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development in Paris, France, last month. OECD and the Iowa Agricultural Experiment Station supported the research.
An important part of Huffman's study was the long-term trend of corn and soybean yields in Iowa, wheat in Kansas and France, rice in Japan and potatoes in the Netherlands. Huffman examined the trends and then made projections about the next decade.
The optimism starts with the producers.
"Prices right now for corn and soybeans are up about 50 percent relative to two years ago, so those are relatively good prices," he said. "That's good news for grain producers."
The impact that the rising demand for biofuels will have on the market for agricultural products is not entirely clear, but grain and oilseed prices will generally be higher than they would be without biofuels.
"Overall, biofuels are probably a good thing for farmers," he said. "However, there will be more erratic variation in grain and oilseed prices than there would be without biofuels," he said.
The main reasons are the erratic components to both supply and demand of crude oil.
While biofuels are pushing demand for grain and oilseeds up, Huffman says the long-term trend in supply of grain and oilseeds is due to new technologies that are being developed by the private sector and marketed to farmers.
"Supply is going up, and demand is going up," he said. "I think they will grow at a similar pace. There will be occasional spikes due to bad weather and abrupt restriction in crude oil production, but prices will come down. When they do, they will come down to similar levels to what they are now in real terms, and those are pretty good prices.
"For the past 100 years, on average, real agricultural product prices have been falling as technology has been allowing supply to increase faster than demand," he said.
But for the past decade, demand has been rising as quickly as supply, he added.
Yields for major field crops in major producing areas have been steadily increasing. There is no indication that the rate is slowing and no reason to fear falling crop yields. Huffman predicts that the rate of increase in yields for corn and soybeans in major production areas will rise much faster than it has in the past 50 years.
"In the case of corn, since 1955 the average rate of increase in Iowa crop yield has been two bushels, per acre, per year," said Huffman. "That's an amazing accomplishment starting from about 65 bushels, per acre, per year in 1955, up to about 165 bushels, per acre, per year now."
Huffman thinks the future will be even better.
"From 2010 to 2019, corn yields are going to increase quite substantially, maybe at four to six bushels, per acre, per year," he said.
Much of the increase will be due to genetic improvements in hybrid corn varieties associated with new, multiple stacking of genes for insect protection and herbicide tolerance that will permit a major increase in plant populations.
These improvements are the result of corn that has been genetically modified (GM) to have certain desirable traits.
Also, better equipment, improved farm management, and reduced- and no-till farming will contribute to rising corn yields in the Midwest.
Other commodities have also improved yield and will likely see continuing increases, according to Huffman.
Soybean yields in Iowa also are increasing, although less dramatically than corn, says Huffman.
The trend over the past 50 years is an increase of about .5 bushel, per acre, per year (bu/ac/yr). That rate of improvement in Iowa soybean yields will continue or possibly increase over the next decade. Current soybean yields are about 50 bu/ac/yr.
Kansas is the leading producer of wheat in the United States with yields of about 45 bu/ac/yr. Yields have been improving at about .5 bu/ac/yr since about 1950.
Farmers in France are producing wheat at about 113 bu/ac/yr. Yields are improving at more than 1.5 bu/ac/yr.
France is the leading wheat producer in the European Union, and Huffman attributes much of their production advantage to the French emphasis on wheat advantage. They are also showing faster production improvement. France often puts their best land into wheat production. Huffman predicts wheat yields may increase faster if GM wheat is more successful.
Japan is a major rice producer. Yields are improving at a rate of .5 bu/ac/yr, and are now at 113 bu/ac/yr compared to around 90 bu/ac/yr in 1960. GM rice has been tried, but has not measurably increased yields, according to Huffman.
Netherlands is the most advanced country in the world when it comes to potato production technology. Yields in the Netherlands have been increasing by about 4.6 bu/ac/yr over the last 50 years and are now at 670 bu/ac/yr.
"Potatoes are a major world food crop and they don't get a lot of attention," said Huffman. "They are consumed in large amounts in Europe and other places, including the United States, and yields are phenomenal."
Several variables will impact the future of crops.
According to Huffman, the biggest are:
* both private companies and government researchers are working on improving production
* higher yields as a result of new techniques in breeding crops, including methods to condense decades of breeding and testing into a few years
* change in biofuels from corn-based to biomass-based by 2019
* GM crops gain more acceptance in Europe
Iowa State University
Agriculture Current Events and Agriculture News RSSBreeding better broccoli
Carotenoids-fat-soluble plant compounds found in some vegetables-are essential to the human diet and reportedly offer important health benefits to consumers.
Study gives clearer picture of how land-use changes affect U.S. climate
Researchers say regional surface temperatures can be affected by land use, suggesting that local and regional strategies, such as creating green spaces and buffer zones in and around urban areas, could be a tool in addressing climate change.
First draft of the pig: Researchers sequence swine genome
A global collaborative has produced a first draft of the genome of a domesticated pig, an achievement that will lead to insights in agriculture, medicine, conservation and evolution.
Expert to Discuss Phosphorus' Impact on Gulf 'Dead Zone'
Phosphorus is an essential element in production agriculture, however fertilizer runoff and wastewater discharge have led to massive eutrophication problems in water bodies worldwide.
How Do We Fund Plant Breeding?
Worldwide demand for a safe and secure food supply is growing with plant breeding at the forefront of sustainability discussions; however many research programs have seen their funding decrease due to the erosion of traditional public or formula grants
Snail fossils suggest semiarid eastern Canary Islands were wetter 50,000 years ago
Fossil land snail shells found in ancient soils on the subtropical eastern Canary Islands show that the Spanish archipelago off the northwest coast of Africa has become progressively drier over the past 50,000 years.
Modified crops reveal hidden cost of resistance
Genetically modified squash plants that are resistant to a debilitating viral disease become more vulnerable to a fatal bacterial infection, according to biologists.
Scientists of the UGR obtain a bioinsecticide to control the Mediterranean fruit fly
UGR News The Mediterranean fruit fly, Ceratitis capitata, is a world plague which represents one of the most serious problems for agriculture. However, the control methods currently present in the market for this plague are ineffective.
Team led by Scripps Research and UC San Diego scientists reveals secrets of drought resistance
A team of biologists in California led by researchers at The Scripps Research Institute and the University of California (UC), San Diego has solved the structure of a critical molecule that helps plants survive during droughts.
Final look at ESA's SMOS and Proba-2 satellites
As preparations for the launch of SMOS and Proba-2 continue on schedule, the engineers and technicians at the Russian launch site say goodbye as both satellites are encapsulated within the half-shells of the Rockot fairing.
More Agriculture Current Events and Agriculture News Articles
 |
Crisis and Opportunity: Sustainability in American Agriculture (Our Sustainable Future) by John E. Ikerd (Author) With the decline of family farms and rural communities and the rise of corporate farming and the resulting environmental degradation, American agriculture is in crisis. But this crisis offers the opportunity to rethink agriculture in sustainable terms. Here one of the most eloquent and influential proponents of sustainable agriculture explains what this means. These engaging essays describe what sustainable agriculture is, why it began, and how it can succeed. Together they constitute a clear and compelling vision for rebalancing the ecological, economic, and social dimensions of agriculture to meet the needs of the present without compromising the future. In Crisis and Opportunity, John E. Ikerd outlines the consequences of agricultural industrialization, then details the methods that... |
 |
Agriculture in America Experience the American Journey through our country's visual heritage in this historical recording provided by the National Archives of the United States. DOCUMENTARY FILM: presents progress in U.S. agriculture from hard manual slave labor to modern mechanization. From the Agency for International Development. This historical recording from the National Archives may contain variations in audio and video quality based on the limitations of the original source material. The content summary for this DVD is adapted from an historical description provided by the government agency or donor at the time of production release. This product is manufactured on demand using DVD-R recordable media. Amazon.com's standard return policy will apply. |
 |
Science in Agriculture: Advanced Methods for Sustainable Farming by Arden B. Andersen (Author) |
 |
American Farm Starring: Langdon ", Lanny", Ames Directed By: James Spione Studio: Repnet Llc Release Date: 02/26/2008 Run time: 85 minutes |
 |
A History of World Agriculture: From the Neolithic Age to the Current Crisis by Marcel Mazoyer (Author), Laurence Roudart (Author) Only once we understand the long history of human efforts to draw sustenance from the land can we grasp the nature of the crisis that faces humankind today, as hundreds of millions of people are faced with famine or flight from the land. From Neolithic times through the earliest civilizations of the ancient Near East, in savannahs, river valleys and the terraces created by the Incas in the Andean mountains, an increasing range of agricultural techniques have developed in response to very different conditions. These developments are recounted in this book, with detailed attention to the ways in which plants, animals, soil, climate, and society have interacted. Mazoyer and Roudart's A History of World Agriculture is a path-breaking and panoramic work, beginning with the emergence... |
 |
Civic Agriculture: Reconnecting Farm, Food, and Community (Civil Society Series) by Thomas A. Lyson (Author) While the American agricultural and food systems follow a decades-old path of industrialization and globalization, a counter trend has appeared toward localizing some agricultural and food production. Thomas A. Lyson, a scholar-practitioner in the field of community-based food systems, calls this rebirth of locally based agriculture and food production civic agriculture because these activities are tightly linked to a community's social and economic development. Civic agriculture embraces innovative ways to produce, process, and distribute food, and it represents a sustainable alternative to the socially, economically, and environmentally destructive practices associated with conventional large-scale agriculture. Farmers' markets, community gardens, and community-supported agriculture are... |
 |
Historic Time Travel: Peek Into Industry & Agriculture (2-DVD Set) Directed By: A2ZCDS.com See Exactly How Governments Encouraged The Development Of Industry And Agriculture in the 1930s, 40s and 50s! From Small Farms To Large Factories - These DVDs Give You A Global Historical Perspective! From Cuba To The Orient These Clips Provide A Truly Global Perspective! There is even a Documentary About Bananas! AndAlso see the See The Construction And Planning Of The Panama Canal! |
|
Journal of Tropical Agriculture by Kerala Agricultural University | |
 |
Making Your Small Farm Profitable: Apply 25 Guiding Principles/Develop New Crops & New Markets/Maximize Net Profits Per Acre by Ron Macher (Author), Howard W. Kerr (Foreword) This practical, step-by-step guide to operating a small farm in the new millennium examines 20 alternative farming enterprises. Readers will learn how to target niche markets and sustain a farm's biological and economic health. |
 |
A Revolution Down on the Farm: The Transformation of American Agriculture since 1929 by Paul K. Conkin (Author) At a time when food is becoming increasingly scarce in many parts of the world and food prices are skyrocketing, no industry is more important than agriculture. Humans have been farming for thousands of years, and yet agriculture has undergone more fundamental changes in the past 80 years than in the previous several centuries. In 1900, 30 million American farmers tilled the soil or tended livestock; today there are fewer than 4.5 million farmers who feed a population four times larger than it was at the beginning of the century. Fifty years ago, the planet could not have sustained a population of 6.5 billion; now, commercial and industrial agriculture ensure that millions will not die from starvation. Farmers are able to feed an exponentially growing planet because the greatest... |
| © 2009 BrightSurf.com |