Australian volcano eruptions overdue, new study confirms

July 06, 2011

Latest research into the age of volcanos in Western Victoria and South Australia has confirmed that the regions are overdue for an eruption, potentially affecting thousands of local residents.

Using the latest dating techniques, scientists from the University of Melbourne's School of Earth Sciences and the Melbourne School of Engineering have calculated the ages of the small volcanoes in the regions and established the recurrence rate for eruptions as 2,000 years.

With the last volcano eruption at Mt Gambier occurring over 5,000 years ago, scientists say the areas are overdue.

The research will be presented today by Professor Bernie Joyce of the University of Melbourne's School of Earth Sciences at the XXV International Congress of Geodesy and Geophysics, in Melbourne.

"Although the volcanos in the region don't erupt on a regular sequence, the likelihood of an eruption is high given the average gap in the past has been 2,000 years," Professor Joyce said.

"These are small eruptions and very localised but depending on the type of eruption, they could cause devastation to thousands of people," he said.

The regions of Western Victoria and adjacent south-eastern South Australia demonstrate a history of activity by young monogenetic (single short-lived activity) volcanoes. Similar young monogenetic provinces are found in northeast Queensland.

Professor Joyce and his colleagues from the University's School of Earth Sciences have spent years cataloguing the hundreds of small volcanic cones, lava flows and craters in the regions. The distribution of activity including lava flows and ash deposits has been mapped in detail.

The latest findings are due to more recent studies using a range of state of the art dating techniques, which have provided more information on the ages of the individual volcanoes, providing information about the occurrence rates.

Professor Joyce said there are several kinds of eruptions which can cause damage and harm to local communities.

"Among the hazards which may need to be prepared for in this closely-settled region are the localised effects of cone building leading to lava flows which run downhill towards the coast.'

"The long lasting and often extensive lava flows can travel for tens of kilometres, and so would be hazardous to modern infrastructure such as bridges, roads and railways, powerlines and pipelines, as well as being a major fire hazard on the dry grassland plains of summer in Western Victoria."

"In some cases rising magma can meet ground water and cause steam explosions. This can form wide craters and produce a lot of ash."

"Depending on where the eruption occurs, ash can cause huge damage to people who are down wind, clogging up streams, road and rail transport and perhaps affecting local air travel," he said.

The cause of the volcanic activity may be the movement of the Australian tectonic plate, which is moving north.

"The plate is hitting up against PNG, lifting the southern margin upwards. This allows magma to move upwards towards the surface, " Professor Joyce said.

Professor Joyce said communities need to have some knowledge of what to do after an eruption. "So far we have no action plans in place if eruptions occur. If they happen close to Melbourne or Geelong it could be hugely devastating. It is more likely however, that eruptions would occur further west, closer to areas such as Colac, Port Fairy, Portland and Mt Gambier."

"We need to note the concerns of other cities such as Auckland in New Zealand which sits on a similar young volcanic region, with a local government which has plans in place to respond if eruptions occur," he said.

The University of Melbourne

---

---

	DK Readers: Eruption!: The Story of Volcanoes by Anita Ganeri (Author) DK is reissuing some of its most beloved Readers with a fresh new look, perfect for 21st century kids! What spits out fire and ash? What sleeps for years but may explode with a bang at any time? In Eruption! The Story of Volcanoes, children learn all about volcanoes, as the mechanics of an eruption are described and illustrated with simple, step-by-step pictures.
	Volcano: The Eruption and Healing of Mount St. Helens by Patricia Lauber (Author) May 18, 1980, 8:32 A.M.: An earthquake suddenly triggered an avalanche on Mount St. Helens, a volcano in southern Washington State. Minutes later, Mount St. Helens blew the top off its peak and exploded into the most devastating volcanic eruption in U.S. history. What caused the eruption? What was left when it ended? What did scientists learn in its aftermath? In this extraordinary photographic essay, Patricia Lauber details the Mount St. Helens eruption and the years following. Through this clear accurate account, readers of all ages will share the awe of the scientists who witnessed both the power of the volcano and the resiliency of life.
	Mount St. Helens: The Eruption and Recovery of a Volcano by Rob Carson (Author) Where were you on May 18, 1980, when Mount St. Helens erupted? Author Rob Carson's essays, accompanied by incredible photos, outline the events leading up to and following the eruption, with a special look at the 20-year process of the mountain's rebirth. As plants, insects, animals, and people have reclaimed Mount St. Helens, the mountain remains a looming reminder of an event that changed the face of the Northwest.
	Volcanoes in Human History: The Far-Reaching Effects of Major Eruptions by Jelle Zeilinga de Boer (Author), Donald Theodore Sanders (Author), Robert D. Ballard (Author) When the volcano Tambora erupted in Indonesia in 1815, as many as 100,000 people perished as a result of the blast and an ensuing famine caused by the destruction of rice fields on Sumbawa and neighboring islands. Gases and dust particles ejected into the atmosphere changed weather patterns around the world, resulting in the infamous ''year without a summer'' in North America, food riots in Europe, and a widespread cholera epidemic. And the gloomy weather inspired Mary Shelley to write the gothic novel Frankenstein.This book tells the story of nine such epic volcanic events, explaining the related geology for the general reader and exploring the myriad ways in which the earth's volcanism has affected human history. Zeilinga de Boer and Sanders describe in depth how volcanic activity has...
	Volcano!: The Icelandic Eruption of 2010 and Other Hot, Smoky, Fierce, and Fiery Mountains (National Geographic Kids) by Judith Fradin (Author), Dennis Fradin (Author) True-life accounts from a wide variety of people, including scientists, sightseers, and thrillseekers, add to the compelling readability of this book that gives readers both a historical perspective on the human experience of volcanoes and a scientific perspective on why they occur and what scientists are doing to help people stay out of the way.
	Eruption! The Story of Volcanoes (Dorling Kindersley Readers, Level 2: Beginning to Read Alone) by Anita Ganeri (Author) What spits our fire and ash? What sleeps for years but may explode with a bang at any time? Find out all about volcanoes! Longer sentences and an expanded vocabulary make this series of 48-page books slightly more challenging: Level 2 is appropriate for children who have started to read but still need help. Information boxes full of background information will stimulate inquisitive minds. These books contain between 700 and 850 words, and they are approximately 70 percent pictures and 30 percent text. The Dorling Kindersley Readers combine an enticing visual layout with high-interest, easy-to-read stories to captivate and delight young bookworms who are just getting started. Written by leading children's authors and compiled in consultation with literacy experts, these engaging books...
	Echoes of Fury: The 1980 Eruption of Mount St. Helens and the Lives It Changed Forever by Frank Parchman (Author) Former investigative journalist Frank Parchman becomes embedded in the lives of eight people whose fates are profoundly altered and ultimately become intertwined in the aftermath of the volcanic fury in southwest Washington state. The story begins on March 20, 1980. After 123 years of geologic tranquility, a swarm of earthquakes signals that America's youngest and most dangerous volcano is coming back to life. At first, no one notices. Then, two months later, after much ""what now?"" speculation by scientists and bureaucrats, the once-beautiful mountain explodes with a force 1000 times greater than Hiroshima. All hell has broken loose. This is an epic account of the volcano's awesome display of raw-throated power; the heartbreak and anger of survivors whose lost loved ones were largely...
	Teide Volcano: Geology and Eruptions of a Highly Differentiated Oceanic Stratovolcano (Active Volcanoes of the World) by Juan Carlos Carracedo (Editor), Valentin Troll (Editor) This book is based on recent research on the latest eruptive cycle of volcanic activity in Tenerife: 1. the formation of the Caldera de Las Cañadas, 2. the subsequent filling by rift activity and 3. eventual construction of Teide stratovolcano. The main interest of this volcanic system is the magmatic evolution towards higher differentiated rocks (phonolites), probably following the interaction of the rift system with a giant landslide. This magmatic sequence comprises the full spectrum of alkaline compositions in OIB settings, providing a large variability of eruptive mechanisms and corresponding volcanic features. Teide, the third highest volcanic structure in the world after Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa (Hawaiian Islands), represents a unique example of the complete magmatic evolution of a...
	Supervolcano: Eruption by Harry Turtledove (Author) The New York Times bestselling author and "maven of alternate history" (San Diego Union-Tribune) presents a near- future thriller. A supervolcanic eruption in Yellowstone Park sends lava and mud flowing toward populated areas, and clouds of ash drifting across the country. The fallout destroys crops and livestock, clogs machinery, and makes cities uninhabitable. Those who survive find themselves caught in an apocalyptic catastrophe in which humanity has no choice but to rise from the ashes and recreate the world...
	Mount Pelee: The Deadliest Volcano Eruption of the Twentieth Century (Volcanoes of the World) by Kathy Furgang (Author)