Science Current Events | Science News | Brightsurf.com
 

Why does simply trusting your feelings lead to much better predictions?

April 17, 2012

If you trust your feelings you are better able to predict future events-from the weather to the stock market, according to a new study in the Journal of Consumer Research. Of course, you need to know a little about what you're predicting.

"Will it rain tomorrow? Who will win American Idol? How high (or low) will the Dow Jones be next week? Who will be our next president?" From the mundane to the phenomenal, the ability to predict what will happen in the future is among the most prized of human faculties," write authors Michel Tuan Pham, Leonard Lee (both Columbia University), and Andrew T. Stephen (University of Pittsburgh).

Over the course of eight studies, the authors found that individuals who trusted their feelings about their knowledge were better able to predict the outcomes of various future events than people who had less trust in their feelings.

This phenomenon, which the authors call the "emotional oracle effect" was proven across a broad range of predictions, including the outcome of the 2008 U.S. Democratic presidential nomination, movie success at the box office, the winner of American Idol, movements of the stock market, the outcome of a national college football championship, and the weather.

For example, in one study, 175 online participants from 46 U.S. states completed a task that induced high or low trust in their feelings. Then they were asked to predict the weather in their respective zip codes for the next two days. "A comparison between predicted and actual weather conditions revealed that 54 percent of the participants with a high trust in feelings made the correct prediction, more than twice the proportion of participants with a low trust in feelings who predicted correctly (21 percent)."

The effect held true whether the participants' trust in their feelings was simply measured or manipulated. However, it was limited by background knowledge. When people in the weather study were asked to predict the weather in far-away locales or two weeks later instead of two days, their predictions lost their advantage.

"We hypothesize that this intriguing emotional oracle effect arises because trusting one's feelings encourages access to a 'privileged window' into the vast amount of predictive information people learn, almost unconsciously, about their environments over time," the authors conclude. "Relying on feelings allows people to tap into all they tacitly know, compared to relying on logical input which only captures partial perspectives of the events."

University of Chicago Press Journals


Related Predictions Current Events and Predictions News Articles


Not just climate change: Study finds human activity is a major factor driving wildfires
A new study examining wildfires in California found that human activity explains as much about their frequency and location as climate influences.

Unique fragment from Earth's formation returns after billions of years in cold storage
In a paper to be published today in the journal Science Advances, lead author Karen Meech of the University of Hawai`i's Institute for Astronomy and her colleagues conclude that C/2014 S3 (PANSTARRS) formed in the inner Solar System at the same time as the Earth itself, but was ejected at a very early stage.

Precision prevention of colorectal cancer
Precision medicine's public face is that of disease -- and better treatments for that disease through targeted therapies.

Trees' internal water pipes predict which species survive drought
Massive tree die-offs due to drought have ravaged forests across the American West and left ecologists struggling to predict how and when tree deaths will happen, and how rising temperatures due to climate change might affect the health of forests.

How the brain consolidates memory during deep sleep
Research strongly suggests that sleep, which constitutes about a third of our lives, is crucial for learning and forming long-term memories.

A warming climate puts Europe at risk for seasonal outbreaks of dengue fever
Increasing temperatures will enlarge Europe's seasonal window for the potential spread of mosquito-borne viral disease, expanding the geographic areas at risk for a dengue epidemic to include much of Europe.

Gravitational wave search provides insights into galaxy evolution and mergers
New results from NANOGrav - the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves - establish astrophysically significant limits in the search for low-frequency gravitational waves.

Rhythm of oscillations in cerebral cortex, key to understanding Down syndrome
Cerebral activity is governed by a fine balance between neuronal excitation and inhibition.

Cold mountain streams offer climate refuge: Future holds hope for biodiversity
A new study offers hope for cold-water species in the face of climate change.

Indiana University-led researchers identify objective predictors of suicidality in women
Researchers have identified blood-based biomarkers and developed questionnaire-based apps that may help clinicians identify which of their female patients being treated for psychiatric disorders are at greatest risk of suicidal ideation or behavior.
More Predictions Current Events and Predictions News Articles

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
by Philip E. Tetlock (Author), Dan Gardner (Author)


A New York Times Bestseller

An Economist Best Book of 2015

"The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow."
—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal
 
Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can...

The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--but Some Don't

The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--but Some Don't
by Nate Silver (Author)


"Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century." —Rachel Maddow, author of Drift

Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com.

Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor...

Predictions 2015-2016

Predictions 2015-2016
by HogueProphecy Publishing


John Hogue, a world renowned authority on Nostradamus and prophetic traditions, will reveal the potential, history-changing events coming in the second half of 2015 as this year may be the last chance to begin reforming monetary, economic, and political systems. Otherwise, time begins running out to avoid a disastrous future that might ultimately entail a threat of human extinction from planetary climate change. Hogue will take us further, into the year 2016, and how it could become Year One of a 20-year period of “The Great Unraveling” as foreseen by Nostradamus.

Let that not dishearten you, cautions Hogue. In his most epic examination yet of worldwide prophetic trends, Hogue presents in breathtaking detail a thought-provoking encounter with tomorrow’s many potentials,...

Fifty Psychic Predictions For  2016 and Beyond

Fifty Psychic Predictions For 2016 and Beyond


Brain eating robots. A portal to the spirit world on Mars. The return of the famous “time traveler” John Titor. Zombie soldiers in Ukraine. Disappearance of Malyasian ships, not just Malaysian airliners. These are just a few of the more unexpected remote reviewing results we see for the period 2016 and the decade beyond.
To be sure, all of our predictions aren’t as, well, improbable. We also see the results of global sea level rise taking an unexpected form in Florida, Donald Trump as king (or, more precisely, queen) maker, nuclear missiles around Iran, but not Iranian nuclear missiles, and massive deception revealed in the investigation of the disappearance of MH370.
This book is a compilation of our club’s efforts to take remote viewing “snapshots” of the...

THE BOOK OF PREDICTIONS

THE BOOK OF PREDICTIONS


With three coins and this book, you will be able to lift the veil of secrecy over their future. Get the answers on your questions torment. You just need to throw six times the three coins. I wish you good fortune telling!

The Prediction

The Prediction


**Amazon Best Seller!** Reached #4 in the Category: Mystery, Thriller & Suspense > Thrillers & Suspense > Crime > Murder.
Nobody knows the day they’ll die… until now.

Mathematical genius Daniel Geller has developed a formula to predict a person’s date of death, only to have it rejected by the faculty at Trinity College. Totally devastated he turns his back on the world he once loved.

Twelve years on, Daniel’s old professor John Redmond and his wife are coming to terms with the death of their ten-year-old son. Could Daniel's formula have predicated his death? Revisiting the thesis, the professor makes an astonishing discovery: out of the five fellow students whom Daniel used the formula on, one of them died on the exact date he predicted.

The Elements of Statistical Learning: Data Mining, Inference, and Prediction, Second Edition (Springer Series in Statistics)

The Elements of Statistical Learning: Data Mining, Inference, and Prediction, Second Edition (Springer Series in Statistics)
by Trevor Hastie (Author), Robert Tibshirani (Author), Jerome Friedman (Author)


During the past decade there has been an explosion in computation and information technology. With it have come vast amounts of data in a variety of fields such as medicine, biology, finance, and marketing. The challenge of understanding these data has led to the development of new tools in the field of statistics, and spawned new areas such as data mining, machine learning, and bioinformatics. Many of these tools have common underpinnings but are often expressed with different terminology. This book describes the important ideas in these areas in a common conceptual framework. While the approach is statistical, the emphasis is on concepts rather than mathematics. Many examples are given, with a liberal use of color graphics. It is a valuable resource for statisticians and anyone...

Ten Predictions 2016: And the Fire and Ice Prophecies

Ten Predictions 2016: And the Fire and Ice Prophecies
by HogueProphecy Publishing


These ten prediction essays focus on what will rock everyone’s world for better or worse in 2016. Waiting between the lines of this quick and comprehensive look at the restless New Year of 2016 are fateful paroxysms and hopeful revelations issuing from unexpected sources. Let world-renowned prophecy scholar and Nostradamus expert John Hogue be your guide through the following threats and breakthroughs that will impact your life, including:

*A mad king waging Oil-mageddon on the world.

*The Greater Depression of 2016

*A global exodus on your doorstep

*The winner of the US Presidential Election.

*You are what you eat: an extinction-level event?

*Blockchains that will change everything.

*Is Global...

Surfing Uncertainty: Prediction, Action, and the Embodied Mind

Surfing Uncertainty: Prediction, Action, and the Embodied Mind
by Andy Clark (Author)


How is it that thoroughly physical material beings such as ourselves can think, dream, feel, create and understand ideas, theories and concepts? How does mere matter give rise to all these non-material mental states, including consciousness itself? An answer to this central question of our existence is emerging at the busy intersection of neuroscience, psychology, artificial intelligence, and robotics.

In this groundbreaking work, philosopher and cognitive scientist Andy Clark explores exciting new theories from these fields that reveal minds like ours to be prediction machines - devices that have evolved to anticipate the incoming streams of sensory stimulation before they arrive. These predictions then initiate actions that structure our worlds and alter the very things we need...

Dire Predictions, 2nd Edition: Understanding Climate Change

Dire Predictions, 2nd Edition: Understanding Climate Change
by Michael E. Mann (Author), Lee R. Kump (Author)


Explore global warming with graphics, illustrations, and charts that separate climate change fact from fiction, presenting the truth about global warming in a way that's both accurate and easy to understand. Respected climate scientists Michael E. Mann and Lee R. Kump address important questions about global warming and climate change, diving into the information documented by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) and breaking it down into clear graphics that explain complex climate questions in simple illustrations that present the truth of the global warming problem clearly. These experts take scientific findings about climate change and global warming and use analogies, striking images, and understandable graphics to make the global warming question clear to both...

© 2016 BrightSurf.com