Science Current Events | Science News | Brightsurf.com
 

Why does simply trusting your feelings lead to much better predictions?

April 17, 2012
If you trust your feelings you are better able to predict future events-from the weather to the stock market, according to a new study in the Journal of Consumer Research. Of course, you need to know a little about what you're predicting.

"Will it rain tomorrow? Who will win American Idol? How high (or low) will the Dow Jones be next week? Who will be our next president?" From the mundane to the phenomenal, the ability to predict what will happen in the future is among the most prized of human faculties," write authors Michel Tuan Pham, Leonard Lee (both Columbia University), and Andrew T. Stephen (University of Pittsburgh).

Over the course of eight studies, the authors found that individuals who trusted their feelings about their knowledge were better able to predict the outcomes of various future events than people who had less trust in their feelings.

This phenomenon, which the authors call the "emotional oracle effect" was proven across a broad range of predictions, including the outcome of the 2008 U.S. Democratic presidential nomination, movie success at the box office, the winner of American Idol, movements of the stock market, the outcome of a national college football championship, and the weather.

For example, in one study, 175 online participants from 46 U.S. states completed a task that induced high or low trust in their feelings. Then they were asked to predict the weather in their respective zip codes for the next two days. "A comparison between predicted and actual weather conditions revealed that 54 percent of the participants with a high trust in feelings made the correct prediction, more than twice the proportion of participants with a low trust in feelings who predicted correctly (21 percent)."

The effect held true whether the participants' trust in their feelings was simply measured or manipulated. However, it was limited by background knowledge. When people in the weather study were asked to predict the weather in far-away locales or two weeks later instead of two days, their predictions lost their advantage.

"We hypothesize that this intriguing emotional oracle effect arises because trusting one's feelings encourages access to a 'privileged window' into the vast amount of predictive information people learn, almost unconsciously, about their environments over time," the authors conclude. "Relying on feelings allows people to tap into all they tacitly know, compared to relying on logical input which only captures partial perspectives of the events."

University of Chicago Press Journals


Related Predictions Current Events and Predictions News Articles


Peru's carbon quantified: Economic and conservation boon
Today scientists unveiled the first high-resolution map of the carbon stocks stored on land throughout the entire country of Perú.

Spin-based electronics: New material successfully tested
Spintronics is an emerging field of electronics, where devices work by manipulating the spin of electrons rather than the current generated by their motion.

New research reveals Pele is powerful, even in the sky
One might assume that a tropical storm moving through volcanic smog (vog) would sweep up the tainted air and march on, unchanged.

Evolution in rainforest flies points to climate change survival
Scientists believe some tropical species may be able to evolve and adapt to the effects of climate change.

Collecting just the right data
Much artificial-intelligence research addresses the problem of making predictions based on large data sets. An obvious example is the recommendation engines at retail sites like Amazon and Netflix.

Measuring the Smallest Magnets
Imagine trying to measure a tennis ball that bounces wildly, every time to a distance a million times its own size.

New mass map of a distant galaxy cluster is the most precise yet
Astronomers using the NASA/ESA Hubble Space Telescope have mapped the mass within a galaxy cluster more precisely than ever before.

Invertebrate numbers nearly halve as human population doubles
Invertebrate numbers have decreased by 45% on average over a 35 year period in which the human population doubled, reports a study on the impact of humans on declining animal numbers.

Synchronization of North Atlantic, North Pacific preceded abrupt warming, end of ice age
Scientists have long been concerned that global warming may push Earth's climate system across a "tipping point," where rapid melting of ice and further warming may become irreversible -- a hotly debated scenario with an unclear picture of what this point of no return may look like.

Election surprises tend to erode trust in government
When asked who is going to win an election, people tend to predict their own candidate will come out on top. When that doesn't happen, according to a new study from the University of Georgia, these "surprised losers" often have less trust in government and democracy.
More Predictions Current Events and Predictions News Articles

The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail — but Some Don't

The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail — but Some Don't
by Nate Silver (Author)


"Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century." —Rachel Maddow, author of Drift Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of...

Predictions for 2014

Predictions for 2014
by HogueProphecy Publishing


In the lengthy process of birthing a new historical era, it’s easy to forget the opening, catalytic incident. History’s water broke 100 years ago in the year 1914. Starting on 1 August, a 1,000-year cruise of an unsinkable civilization of monarchial-ruled, world-dominating, European colonial empires stoked its boilers and surged pell-mell into the First World War, like the HMS Titanic hitting an iceberg only two years earlier.

The “Unsinkable” sank.

2014 will be just like that. History’s water will break again and carry us down the next four years in a tidal wave of breathtaking change. Watch the very nature of systems of politics, society, power grids and economics sustained for 5,000 years, be upended and reinvented in the coming revolution of...

The Prediction

The Prediction


Nobody knows the day they’ll die… until now.

Mathematical genius Daniel Geller has developed a formula to predict a person’s date of death only to have it rejected by the faculty at Trinity College. Totally devastated he turns his back on the world he once loved.

Twelve years on, Daniel’s old professor John Redmond and his wife are coming to terms with the death of their ten-year-old son. Could Daniel's formula have predicated his death? Revisiting the thesis, the professor makes an astonishing discovery: out of the five fellow students whom Daniel used the formula on, one of them died on the exact date predicted by Daniel.

One more is due to die in six days: Daniel’s ex-lover Grace.

The professor draws Daniel back into the...

Predictions for 2013-2014

Predictions for 2013-2014
by HogueProphecy Publishing


This eBook is about the most important 18 months humanity has ever had the opportunity to experience. May 2013 through December 2014 is the future’s Deep Breath before the Plunge when destiny draws in a draft of potentialities before it exhales and by the new year of the mid-decade, we all plunge into the flood, surfing or wiping out on a new tsunami of history’s quickening.

This window of time and opportunity comprises the climax of Saturn’s karmic 28-year cycle—its returning passage through Scorpio, the sign of taxes, the portent of the bill coming due, presenting a choice of what future we wish to inherit.

World-Renowned Nostradamus expert and futurist, John Hogue, takes you down a captivating, humorous and sometimes frightening prophetic ride through...

After The Fires Went Out: Coyote (Book One of the Unconventional Post-Apocalyptic Series)

After The Fires Went Out: Coyote (Book One of the Unconventional Post-Apocalyptic Series)
by Wolfrom Writes


First came the comet. Then came the fires. Now we fight to save what's left.

Baptiste, stranded 500 miles from his wife and daughter, at the northern edge of civilization, has made a vow to protect a teenage girl from the chaos that surrounds them. But as food and fuel runs out, and even friends prove they can't be trusted, Baptiste realizes that this promise won't be easy to keep.

Warning: Due to the setting and subject matter (post-apocalyptic North America), this novel contains foul language and scenes of violence.

Dire Predictions: Understanding Global Warming - The Illustrated Guide to the Findings of the IPCC

Dire Predictions: Understanding Global Warming - The Illustrated Guide to the Findings of the IPCC
by Michael E. Mann (Author), Lee R. Kump (Author)


The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been issuing the essential facts and figures on climate change for nearly two decades. But the hundreds of pages of scientific evidence quoted for accuracy by the media and scientists alike, remain inscrutable to the general public who may still question the validity of climate change.

Esteemed climate scientists Michael E. Mann and Lee R. Kump, have partnered with DK Publishing to present Dire Predictions-an important book in this time of global need. Dire Predictions presents the information documented by the IPCC in an illustrated, visually-stunning, and undeniably powerful way to the lay reader. The scientific findings that provide validity to the implications of climate change are presented in clear-cut graphic...

Prediction and Management of Severe Acute Pancreatitis

Prediction and Management of Severe Acute Pancreatitis
by Chris E Forsmark (Editor), Timothy B. Gardner (Editor)


This volume provides a comprehensive summary of the field, with expert recommendations on prediction and management. It details the recent consensus guidelines (2012) updating the definition of pancreatitis and its complications. The text thoughtfully summarizes the current prediction models for severe acute pancreatitis, including laboratory, clinical and imaging parameters. It also highlights the relative advantages and disadvantages of several of these models. Evidenced-based guidelines into medical and surgical management of both the hospitalized and discharged patient are described, with recommendations from expert authors pertaining to various clinical situations. Finally, complications of acute pancreatitis and their management, including the use of cutting-edge...

Complete Method of Prediction

Complete Method of Prediction
by Robert Deluce (Author)


Book by Deluce, Robert

Christology of the Old Testament: And a Commentary on the Messianic Predictions, Vol. 1

Christology of the Old Testament: And a Commentary on the Messianic Predictions, Vol. 1
by Public Domain Books


Quality Classics

We specialize in creating hard to find, high quality, classic books optimized for the Kindle.

Sick of spelling errors, weird characters, or a lack of pictures in illustrated books? Well we know how you feel. We always have the highest quality books. All of our books are formatted and reviewed by an actual human for the Kindle, and always 99 cents.

To find more of our books search "quality classics" in Amazon.

Thinking: The New Science of Decision-Making, Problem-Solving, and Prediction

Thinking: The New Science of Decision-Making, Problem-Solving, and Prediction
by John Brockman (Author)


Unlock your mindFrom the bestselling authors of Thinking, Fast and Slow; The Black Swan; and Stumbling on Happiness comes a cutting-edge exploration of the mysteries of rational thought, decision-making, intuition, morality, willpower, problem-solving, prediction, forecasting, unconscious behavior, and beyond. Edited by John Brockman, publisher of Edge.org ("The world's smartest website"—The Guardian), Thinking presents original ideas by today's leading psychologists, neuroscientists, and philosophers who are radically expanding our understanding of human thought.Daniel Kahneman on the power (and pitfalls) of human intuition and "unconscious" thinking • Daniel Gilbert on desire, prediction, and why getting what we want doesn't always make us happy • Nassim Nicholas Taleb on the...

© 2014 BrightSurf.com