Science Current Events | Science News | Brightsurf.com
 

Why does simply trusting your feelings lead to much better predictions?

April 17, 2012
If you trust your feelings you are better able to predict future events-from the weather to the stock market, according to a new study in the Journal of Consumer Research. Of course, you need to know a little about what you're predicting.

"Will it rain tomorrow? Who will win American Idol? How high (or low) will the Dow Jones be next week? Who will be our next president?" From the mundane to the phenomenal, the ability to predict what will happen in the future is among the most prized of human faculties," write authors Michel Tuan Pham, Leonard Lee (both Columbia University), and Andrew T. Stephen (University of Pittsburgh).

Over the course of eight studies, the authors found that individuals who trusted their feelings about their knowledge were better able to predict the outcomes of various future events than people who had less trust in their feelings.

This phenomenon, which the authors call the "emotional oracle effect" was proven across a broad range of predictions, including the outcome of the 2008 U.S. Democratic presidential nomination, movie success at the box office, the winner of American Idol, movements of the stock market, the outcome of a national college football championship, and the weather.

For example, in one study, 175 online participants from 46 U.S. states completed a task that induced high or low trust in their feelings. Then they were asked to predict the weather in their respective zip codes for the next two days. "A comparison between predicted and actual weather conditions revealed that 54 percent of the participants with a high trust in feelings made the correct prediction, more than twice the proportion of participants with a low trust in feelings who predicted correctly (21 percent)."

The effect held true whether the participants' trust in their feelings was simply measured or manipulated. However, it was limited by background knowledge. When people in the weather study were asked to predict the weather in far-away locales or two weeks later instead of two days, their predictions lost their advantage.

"We hypothesize that this intriguing emotional oracle effect arises because trusting one's feelings encourages access to a 'privileged window' into the vast amount of predictive information people learn, almost unconsciously, about their environments over time," the authors conclude. "Relying on feelings allows people to tap into all they tacitly know, compared to relying on logical input which only captures partial perspectives of the events."

University of Chicago Press Journals


Related Predictions Current Events and Predictions News Articles


Mediterranean, Semi-Arid Ecosystems Prove Resistant to Climate Change
Climate change predictions for the Middle East, like other arid regions of the world, are alarming. In an area known for its water scarcity, rainfall is expected to decrease even further in the near future, spelling disaster for the functioning of unique ecosystems - hotspots of biodiversity and rich genetic fodder for essential crops.

Supercomputers link proteins to drug side effects
New medications created by pharmaceutical companies have helped millions of Americans alleviate pain and suffering from their medical conditions. However, the drug creation process often misses many side effects that kill at least 100,000 patients a year, according to the journal Nature.

POLARBEAR seeks cosmic answers in microwave polarization
An international team of physicists has measured a subtle characteristic in the polarization of the cosmic microwave background radiation that will allow them to map the large-scale structure of the universe, determine the masses of neutrinos and perhaps uncover some of the mysteries of dark matter and dark energy.

Psychologists from Bielefeld University publish study
We assume that we can see the world around us in sharp detail. In fact, our eyes can only process a fraction of our surroundings precisely. In a series of experiments, psychologists at Bielefeld University have been investigating how the brain fools us into believing that we see in sharp detail.

Researchers develop world's thinnest electric generator
Researchers from Columbia Engineering and the Georgia Institute of Technology report today that they have made the first experimental observation of piezoelectricity and the piezotronic effect in an atomically thin material, molybdenum disulfide (MoS2), resulting in a unique electric generator and mechanosensation devices that are optically transparent, extremely light, and very bendable and stretchable.

Corruption of the Health Care Delivery System
The foundation of evidence-based research has eroded and the trend must be reversed so patients and clinicians can make wise shared decisions about their health, say Dartmouth researchers in the journal Circulation: Cardiovascular Quality and Outcomes.

No single explanation for biodiversity in Madagascar
No single "one-size-fits-all" model can explain how biodiversity hotspots come to be, finds a study of more than 700 species of reptiles and amphibians on the African island of Madagascar.

Discovery of new subatomic particle sheds light on fundamental force of nature
The discovery of a new particle will "transform our understanding" of the fundamental force of nature that binds the nuclei of atoms, researchers argue.

A novel roadmap through bacterial genomes leads the way to new drug discovery
For millennia, bacteria and other microbes have engaged in intense battles of chemical warfare, attempting to edge each other out of comfortable ecological niches.

New vaccines targeting adults and teens are best chance to eliminate TB by 2050
Targets to eliminate tuberculosis (TB) by 2050 are more likely to be met if new vaccines are developed for adults and adolescents instead of for infants, according to new research published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
More Predictions Current Events and Predictions News Articles

Predictions for 2014

Predictions for 2014
by HogueProphecy Publishing


In the lengthy process of birthing a new historical era, it’s easy to forget the opening, catalytic incident. History’s water broke 100 years ago in the year 1914. Starting on 1 August, a 1,000-year cruise of an unsinkable civilization of monarchial-ruled, world-dominating, European colonial empires stoked its boilers and surged pell-mell into the First World War, like the HMS Titanic hitting an iceberg only two years earlier.

The “Unsinkable” sank.

2014 will be just like that. History’s water will break again and carry us down the next four years in a tidal wave of breathtaking change. Watch the very nature of systems of politics, society, power grids and economics sustained for 5,000 years, be upended and reinvented in the coming revolution of...

The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail â but Some Don't

The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail — but Some Don't
by Nate Silver (Author)


"Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century." —Rachel Maddow, author of Drift

Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com.

Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor...

PREDICTIONS: by Hazrat Naimatullah Wali R.A

PREDICTIONS: by Hazrat Naimatullah Wali R.A


Some Prediction which proved true and some are going to be true in Future

Predictions for 2013-2014

Predictions for 2013-2014
by HogueProphecy Publishing


This eBook is about the most important 18 months humanity has ever had the opportunity to experience. May 2013 through December 2014 is the future’s Deep Breath before the Plunge when destiny draws in a draft of potentialities before it exhales and by the new year of the mid-decade, we all plunge into the flood, surfing or wiping out on a new tsunami of history’s quickening.

This window of time and opportunity comprises the climax of Saturn’s karmic 28-year cycle—its returning passage through Scorpio, the sign of taxes, the portent of the bill coming due, presenting a choice of what future we wish to inherit.

World-Renowned Nostradamus expert and futurist, John Hogue, takes you down a captivating, humorous and sometimes frightening prophetic ride through...

Large-Scale Inference: Empirical Bayes Methods for Estimation, Testing, and Prediction (Institute of Mathematical Statistics Monographs)

Large-Scale Inference: Empirical Bayes Methods for Estimation, Testing, and Prediction (Institute of Mathematical Statistics Monographs)
by Bradley Efron (Author)


We live in a new age for statistical inference, where modern scientific technology such as microarrays and fMRI machines routinely produce thousands and sometimes millions of parallel data sets, each with its own estimation or testing problem. Doing thousands of problems at once is more than repeated application of classical methods. Taking an empirical Bayes approach, Bradley Efron, inventor of the bootstrap, shows how information accrues across problems in a way that combines Bayesian and frequentist ideas. Estimation, testing, and prediction blend in this framework, producing opportunities for new methodologies of increased power. New difficulties also arise, easily leading to flawed inferences. This book takes a careful look at both the promise and pitfalls of large-scale statistical...

The Prediction

The Prediction


**Amazon Best Seller!** Reached #13 in the Category: Mystery, Thriller & Suspense > Thrillers & Suspense > Crime > Murder.

Nobody knows the day they’ll die… until now.

Mathematical genius Daniel Geller has developed a formula to predict a person’s date of death, only to have it rejected by the faculty at Trinity College. Totally devastated he turns his back on the world he once loved.

Twelve years on, Daniel’s old professor John Redmond and his wife are coming to terms with the death of their ten-year-old son. Could Daniel's formula have predicated his death? Revisiting the thesis, the professor makes an astonishing discovery: out of the five fellow students whom Daniel used the formula on, one of them died on the exact date predicted by...

The Elements of Statistical Learning: Data Mining, Inference, and Prediction, Second Edition (Springer Series in Statistics)

The Elements of Statistical Learning: Data Mining, Inference, and Prediction, Second Edition (Springer Series in Statistics)
by Trevor Hastie (Author), Robert Tibshirani (Author), Jerome Friedman (Author)


During the past decade there has been an explosion in computation and information technology. With it have come vast amounts of data in a variety of fields such as medicine, biology, finance, and marketing. The challenge of understanding these data has led to the development of new tools in the field of statistics, and spawned new areas such as data mining, machine learning, and bioinformatics. Many of these tools have common underpinnings but are often expressed with different terminology. This book describes the important ideas in these areas in a common conceptual framework. While the approach is statistical, the emphasis is on concepts rather than mathematics. Many examples are given, with a liberal use of color graphics. It is a valuable resource for statisticians and anyone...

Are there true prophets: Power of the brain, predictions and prophecies, great powers

Are there true prophets: Power of the brain, predictions and prophecies, great powers


Are there true prophets? Throughout history, people have been fascinated with knowing the unknown. From biblical times to modern times, prophets have spoken out to warn and education the masses – sometimes with disastrous personal results. Discover the power of the brain, tap into your own mental potential to heal yourself and bring success into your life, and learn the prophecies and predictions visionaries throughout history such as Edgar Cayce and Nostradamus have tried to impart. Are you ready to enter a journey of the mind?
In Are There True Prophets: Power of the brain, Great powers, Predictions and prophecies you will take a journey of discovery that includes:
• Using mental power for health – Learn how to tap into the power of the brain to heal...

Dire Predictions: Understanding Global Warming - The Illustrated Guide to the Findings of the IPCC

Dire Predictions: Understanding Global Warming - The Illustrated Guide to the Findings of the IPCC
by Michael E. Mann (Author), Lee R. Kump (Author)


The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been issuing the essential facts and figures on climate change for nearly two decades. But the hundreds of pages of scientific evidence quoted for accuracy by the media and scientists alike, remain inscrutable to the general public who may still question the validity of climate change.

Esteemed climate scientists Michael E. Mann and Lee R. Kump, have partnered with DK Publishing to present Dire Predictions-an important book in this time of global need. Dire Predictions presents the information documented by the IPCC in an illustrated, visually-stunning, and undeniably powerful way to the lay reader. The scientific findings that provide validity to the implications of climate change are presented in clear-cut graphic...

Cycles: The Science of Prediction

Cycles: The Science of Prediction
by Edward R. Dewey (Author), Edwin F. Dakin (Author)


In 1947 Edward R. Dewey and Edwin F. Dakin published their book Cycles: The Science of Prediction which argued the United States economy was driven by four cycles of different length. Dewey devoted his life to the study of cycles, claiming that "everything that has been studied has been found to have cycles present." He carried out extensive studies of cyclicity in economic, geological, biological, sociology, physical sciences and other disciplines. As a result of his research, Dewey asserted that seemingly unrelated time series often had similar cycles periods present and that when they did the phase of these cycles was mostly very similar (cycle synchrony). He also said that there were many cycles with periods that were related by powers or products of 2 and 3. Dewey understood his...

© 2014 BrightSurf.com