Science Current Events | Science News | Brightsurf.com
 

Why does simply trusting your feelings lead to much better predictions?

April 17, 2012
If you trust your feelings you are better able to predict future events-from the weather to the stock market, according to a new study in the Journal of Consumer Research. Of course, you need to know a little about what you're predicting.

"Will it rain tomorrow? Who will win American Idol? How high (or low) will the Dow Jones be next week? Who will be our next president?" From the mundane to the phenomenal, the ability to predict what will happen in the future is among the most prized of human faculties," write authors Michel Tuan Pham, Leonard Lee (both Columbia University), and Andrew T. Stephen (University of Pittsburgh).

Over the course of eight studies, the authors found that individuals who trusted their feelings about their knowledge were better able to predict the outcomes of various future events than people who had less trust in their feelings.

This phenomenon, which the authors call the "emotional oracle effect" was proven across a broad range of predictions, including the outcome of the 2008 U.S. Democratic presidential nomination, movie success at the box office, the winner of American Idol, movements of the stock market, the outcome of a national college football championship, and the weather.

For example, in one study, 175 online participants from 46 U.S. states completed a task that induced high or low trust in their feelings. Then they were asked to predict the weather in their respective zip codes for the next two days. "A comparison between predicted and actual weather conditions revealed that 54 percent of the participants with a high trust in feelings made the correct prediction, more than twice the proportion of participants with a low trust in feelings who predicted correctly (21 percent)."

The effect held true whether the participants' trust in their feelings was simply measured or manipulated. However, it was limited by background knowledge. When people in the weather study were asked to predict the weather in far-away locales or two weeks later instead of two days, their predictions lost their advantage.

"We hypothesize that this intriguing emotional oracle effect arises because trusting one's feelings encourages access to a 'privileged window' into the vast amount of predictive information people learn, almost unconsciously, about their environments over time," the authors conclude. "Relying on feelings allows people to tap into all they tacitly know, compared to relying on logical input which only captures partial perspectives of the events."

University of Chicago Press Journals


Related Predictions Current Events and Predictions News Articles


How Twitter can help predict emergency room visits
Twitter users who post information about their personal health online might be considered by some to be "over-sharers," but new research led by the University of Arizona suggests that health-related tweets may have the potential to be helpful for hospitals.

Wind bursts strongly affect El Niño severity
The long-forecasted El Niño event of 2014/15 did not meet expectations. On March 5, 2015, the National Weather Service finally declared a "weak" event arriving several months later than expected, formally dashing predictions that we would see a major event on par with the monster El Niño of 1997/98 that would bring much-needed rain to California and other western states.

Researchers can trace dust samples using fungal DNA
Researchers from North Carolina State University and the University of Colorado, Boulder, have developed a statistical model that allows them to tell where a dust sample came from within the continental United States based on the DNA of fungi found in the sample.

Blood disorder study illustrates the challenges to parsing genetic data
Accumulating data, even genetic data, is easy. Understanding the meaning of those data can be more of a challenge.

New blood test can predict future breast cancer
According to the World Health Organization, breast cancer is the most common cancer in women both in the developed and less developed world, and in the long term the scientists hope that the new method will lead to better prevention and early treatment of the disease.

Ocean myth busted: 'Toddler' sea turtles are very active swimmers
It turns out sea turtles, even at a tender 6-18 months of age, are very active swimmers. They don't just passively drift in ocean currents as researchers once thought.

Cosmic debris: Study looks inside the universe's most powerful explosions
A new study provides an inside look at the most powerful explosions in the universe: gamma-ray bursts.

Improved understanding of protein complex offers insight into DNA replication initiation mechanism basics
A clearer understanding of the origin recognition complex (ORC) - a protein complex that directs DNA replication - through its crystal structure offers new insight into fundamental mechanisms of DNA replication initiation.

California's solar incentive program has had only modest impact on adoption rates
Since 2007, California has had one of the most aggressive incentive programs in the country for putting solar-electric panels on the rooftops of homes and businesses.

Case study Cabo Verde: Simulation offers policy Rx for curbing HIV
When a whole country's public health is at stake, making the wrong policy choices can cost lives and money.
More Predictions Current Events and Predictions News Articles

The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--but Some Don't

The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--but Some Don't
by Nate Silver (Author)


"Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century." —Rachel Maddow, author of Drift

Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com.

Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor...

The Prediction

The Prediction


**Amazon Best Seller!** Reached #13 in the Category: Mystery, Thriller & Suspense > Thrillers & Suspense > Crime > Murder.

Nobody knows the day they’ll die… until now.

Mathematical genius Daniel Geller has developed a formula to predict a person’s date of death, only to have it rejected by the faculty at Trinity College. Totally devastated he turns his back on the world he once loved.

Twelve years on, Daniel’s old professor John Redmond and his wife are coming to terms with the death of their ten-year-old son. Could Daniel's formula have predicated his death? Revisiting the thesis, the professor makes an astonishing discovery: out of the five fellow students whom Daniel used the formula on, one of them died on the exact date he predicted.
Predictions for 2014

Predictions for 2014
by HogueProphecy Publishing


In the lengthy process of birthing a new historical era, it’s easy to forget the opening, catalytic incident. History’s water broke 100 years ago in the year 1914. Starting on 1 August, a 1,000-year cruise of an unsinkable civilization of monarchial-ruled, world-dominating, European colonial empires stoked its boilers and surged pell-mell into the First World War, like the HMS Titanic hitting an iceberg only two years earlier.

The “Unsinkable” sank.

2014 will be just like that. History’s water will break again and carry us down the next four years in a tidal wave of breathtaking change. Watch the very nature of systems of politics, society, power grids and economics sustained for 5,000 years, be upended and reinvented in the coming revolution of...

Ten Predictions for 2015 and the Future of Richness

Ten Predictions for 2015 and the Future of Richness
by HogueProphecy Publishing


A quick and comprehensive look at the New Year 2015 and the great changes overtaking the old world order in what world-renowned prophecy scholar and Nostradamus expert John Hogue coins as “The Year of Last Chances.”

In ten short essays, Hogue takes on key, history-changing forecasts, including:

*Economic Power Shifting East

*The rise of alternatives to the Fiat Economy

*An American Intifada spreading

*The Decentralization Revolution empowering the Individual

*A World War against an invisible enemy: Global Warming

*The Ukrainian Missile Crisis

*Who is the next American President

*A New Humanity can Awaken Inside of You

This prediction-packed booklet...

NOSTRADAMUS PROPHECY QUATRAINS COMPLETE WORKS ULTIMATE COLLECTION - All Quatrains, Writings, Prophecies, Oracles, Secret Code PLUS BIOGRAPHY and ANALYSIS OF PREDICTIONS

NOSTRADAMUS PROPHECY QUATRAINS COMPLETE WORKS ULTIMATE COLLECTION - All Quatrains, Writings, Prophecies, Oracles, Secret Code PLUS BIOGRAPHY and ANALYSIS OF PREDICTIONS
by Everlasting Flames Publishing


NOSTRADAMUS COMPLETE WORKS ULTIMATE COLLECTION

Are you looking for the predictions, quatrains and poetry of Nostradamus?

Do you want the most complete, annotated Nostradamus collection – with ALL Nostradamus's quatrains, ALL his poetry, ALL his predictions PLUS annotations and interpretations?

With a BIOGRAPHY?

And BONUS material?

Then you want this all inclusive compilation from 'Everlasting Flames Publishing' - designed just for you.

WHO WAS NOSTRADAMUS?

Michel de Nostredame, Latinised as Nostradamus, was a French apothecary and seer who published collections of prophecies. Nostradamus has attracted a following that credits him with predicting many major world events.

THE...

The Elements of Statistical Learning: Data Mining, Inference, and Prediction, Second Edition (Springer Series in Statistics)

The Elements of Statistical Learning: Data Mining, Inference, and Prediction, Second Edition (Springer Series in Statistics)
by Trevor Hastie (Author), Robert Tibshirani (Author), Jerome Friedman (Author)


During the past decade there has been an explosion in computation and information technology. With it have come vast amounts of data in a variety of fields such as medicine, biology, finance, and marketing. The challenge of understanding these data has led to the development of new tools in the field of statistics, and spawned new areas such as data mining, machine learning, and bioinformatics. Many of these tools have common underpinnings but are often expressed with different terminology. This book describes the important ideas in these areas in a common conceptual framework. While the approach is statistical, the emphasis is on concepts rather than mathematics. Many examples are given, with a liberal use of color graphics. It is a valuable resource for statisticians and anyone...

The Predictions: A Novel

The Predictions: A Novel
by Bianca Zander (Author)


From the author of the acclaimed The Girl Below comes a stunning novel of one woman’s attempt to outrun the destiny that is predicted for her, moving from a remote New Zealand commune in the waning days of 1970s free-love experimentation to the heady music scene of 1980s London.Gaialands, a bucolic vegan commune in the New Zealand wilderness, is the only home fifteen-year-old Poppy has ever known. It’s the epitome of 1970s counterculture—a place of free love, hard work, and high ideals…at least in theory. The reality is complicated and sometimes fraught, especially as its children reach adolescence. Poppy is drawn to handsome sixteen-year-old Lukas, who’s increasingly skeptical of Gaialands and the adults who shape its rules.To help ‘heal’ the commune’s energy, new...

Machine Learning for Protein Subcellular Localization Prediction

Machine Learning for Protein Subcellular Localization Prediction
by Shibiao Wan (Author), Man-Wai Mak (Author)




Dire Predictions: Understanding Global Warming - The Illustrated Guide to the Findings of the IPCC

Dire Predictions: Understanding Global Warming - The Illustrated Guide to the Findings of the IPCC
by Michael E. Mann (Author), Lee R. Kump (Author)


The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been issuing the essential facts and figures on climate change for nearly two decades. But the hundreds of pages of scientific evidence quoted for accuracy by the media and scientists alike, remain inscrutable to the general public who may still question the validity of climate change.

Esteemed climate scientists Michael E. Mann and Lee R. Kump, have partnered with DK Publishing to present Dire Predictions-an important book in this time of global need. Dire Predictions presents the information documented by the IPCC in an illustrated, visually-stunning, and undeniably powerful way to the lay reader. The scientific findings that provide validity to the implications of climate change are presented in clear-cut graphic...

Cycles: The Science of Prediction

Cycles: The Science of Prediction
by Edward R. Dewey (Author), Edwin F. Dakin (Author)


In 1947 Edward R. Dewey and Edwin F. Dakin published their book Cycles: The Science of Prediction which argued the United States economy was driven by four cycles of different length. Dewey devoted his life to the study of cycles, claiming that "everything that has been studied has been found to have cycles present." He carried out extensive studies of cyclicity in economic, geological, biological, sociology, physical sciences and other disciplines. As a result of his research, Dewey asserted that seemingly unrelated time series often had similar cycles periods present and that when they did the phase of these cycles was mostly very similar (cycle synchrony). He also said that there were many cycles with periods that were related by powers or products of 2 and 3. Dewey understood his...

© 2015 BrightSurf.com