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Pump prices and Pompeii crisis

September 29, 2004

The price of petrol at any station in Yorkshire can be predicted to the nearest 0.5p per litre by a new computer model developed by geography PhD student Alison Heppenstall at the University of Leeds. She found that the location of a station is just as likely to affect the pump cost as changes in oil prices.

Petrol prices across Bradford and Leeds vary by nearly seven pence a litre between expensive rural stations and city supermarkets, she found. Alison's computer model uses a combination of how petrol stations are managed and the effect of prices at neighbouring stations to predict such variations.
"Most people imagine that oil costs are the most important factor in determining petrol prices," said Alison. "But it's a much more complex interaction of oil prices, local population, company strategies and site costs."




If crude oil prices stay high, the model predicts that prices at rural petrol stations will increase disproportionately. The sophisticated 'agent-based' model shows that supermarkets are able to sustain the cheapest prices even under extreme pricing conditions.

Supervisor Dr Andy Evans said: "Many people will already have seen an agent-based model without realising it - they are used in films like Lord of the Rings to model battles, and were behind route changes to the Notting Hill Carnival."

They have massive advantages over previous methods because they finally give us a way of using both quantitative and behavioural data to provide policy makers with detailed predictive toolkits. They can use evidence from individual life histories to international scale variations to model everything from the impact of climate change on river networks to how people escaped lava flows in Pompeii."

Alison's PhD is funded by the Economic and Social Research Council.


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