Forecast :125,000 fewer U.S. COVID deaths if 50% initiate vaccination by March 1

January 29, 2021

A new report combining forecasting and expert prediction data, predicts that 125,000 lives could be saved by the end of 2021 if 50% or more of the U.S. population initiated COVID vaccination by March 1, 2021.

"Meta and consensus forecast of COVID-19 targets," developed by Thomas McAndrew, a computational scientist and faculty member at Lehigh University's College of Health, and colleagues, incorporates data from experts and trained forecasters, combining their predictions into a single consensus forecast. In addition McAndrew and his team produce a metaforecast, which is a combination of an ensemble of computational models and their consensus forecast.

In addition to predictions related to the impact of vaccinations, the report includes forecasting analyses on a variety of U.S. COVID-related issues, including number of cases, hospitalizations and deaths and the prevalence of the B.1.1.7 variant, which first emerged in the United Kingdom but is believed to be spreading rapidly in the U.S.

From the report: McAndrew's approach to forecasting is different from the traditional approach, he says. Rather than build a computational model to predict cases, deaths, and hospitalizations due to COVID, he asks experts and trained forecasters to predict these targets and combines their predictions into a single consensus forecast.

In addition he produces a metaforecast: a combination of an ensemble of computational models and the consensus forecast.

"The idea is to combine computational models with human judgment to make more accurate predictions of the US outbreak," says McAndrew.
-end-


Lehigh University

Related Predictions Articles from Brightsurf:

Water predictions: Telling when a nanolithography mold will break through droplets
Ultraviolet nanoimprint lithography is powerful method of producing polymer nanostructures by pressing a curable resin onto a mold.

Researchers find increases in nitrous oxide emissions, outpacing global predictions
The term ''greenhouse gas'' is often used interchangeably with carbon dioxide, due to its prevalence in our atmosphere - more than 80 percent of all greenhouse gas emissions, estimates the Environmental Protection Agency.

Researchers study why neural networks are efficient in their predictions
A study has tested the predictions of a neural network to check whether they coincide with actual results.

Climate predictions several years into the future?
In five years, will the winter be mild, and will the following summer be rainy?

Applying mathematics to accelerate predictions for capturing fusion energy
PPPL scientists have borrowed a technique from applied mathematics to rapidly predict the behavior of fusion plasma at a much-reduced computational cost.

Researchers hope to improve future epidemic predictions
As the world grapples with the COVID-19 pandemic, a new mathematical model could offer insights on how to improve future epidemic predictions based on how information mutates as it is transmitted from person to person and group to group.

We can make predictions about relationships - but is this necessary?
'Predictions as to the longevity of a relationship are definitely possible,' says Dr Christine Finn from the University of Jena.

New open-source software judges accuracy of computer predictions of cancer genetics
Researchers at the Crick, UCLA Jonsson Comprehensive Cancer Center, Oregon Health & Science University, the Oxford Big Data Institute, and the University of Toronto have created new open-source software which determines the accuracy of computer predictions of genetic variation within tumor samples.

Scientists improve yield predictions based on seedling data
A doctor diagnosing a 50-year-old patient based on a blood test taken during the patient's infancy would be unthinkable.

Better wildfire and smoke predictions with new vegetation database
Researchers have created the first comprehensive database of all the wildfire fuels that have been measured across North America.

Read More: Predictions News and Predictions Current Events
Brightsurf.com is a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program designed to provide a means for sites to earn advertising fees by advertising and linking to Amazon.com.