APS tip sheet: Predicting epidemics' speed

February 10, 2020

As the coronavirus outbreak expands, public health officials are trying to anticipate its trajectory and the rate at which it will travel. Now, scientists have created a new analysis able to predict the speed of epidemics in a network. By employing a simple approach commonly used to monitor how messages pass through communication networks, Moore and Rogers were able to theoretically predict contagion speeds in different networks, down to individual nodes. Their model also provides a way to assess each node's likelihood of being infected by a certain particular time in the epidemic. Currently, the theoretical analysis operates in a tree-like contagion network. However, the scientists demonstrate how it can be applied to more complex and widespread contagion networks.

Predicting the speed of epidemics spreading on networks
Sam Moore and Tim Rogers
-end-


American Physical Society

Related Epidemics Articles from Brightsurf:

Random effects key to containing epidemics
To control an epidemic, authorities will often impose varying degrees of lockdown.

Predicting influenza epidemics
Researchers at Linköping University, Sweden, have developed a unique method to predict influenza epidemics by combining several sources of data.

Pandemics and epidemics could exacerbate racism xenophobia
Human beings share these same biological impulses as other animals to separate into modular social groups.

Warning: Epidemics are often followed by unrest
History teaches that social tension accumulated over an epidemic can lead to significant episodes of rebellion, according to a study.

Scientists chart SARS-CoV-2 origin and transmission in Brazil, harboring one of fastest growing COVID-19 epidemics in the world
A team of Brazilian and European scientists has determined the transmission rates and out-of-country origins of predominant SARS-CoV-2 strains currently circulating in Brazil, which harbors one of the fastest growing COVID-19 epidemics in the world.

How do epidemics spread and persist before and after introduction of a vaccine?
Modeling of measles epidemics in England and Wales from 1944 to 1994 shows that, before vaccination, measles could persist in both large population centers and by spread among sets of smaller towns.

COVID-19 in humanitarian settings and lessons learned from past epidemics
A new paper, ;COVID-19 in Humanitarian Settings and Lessons Learned from Past Epidemics' published in Nature Medicine, invokes a global response to protect the most vulnerable during the COVID-19 pandemic.

New mathematical model can more effectively track epidemics
As COVID-19 spreads worldwide, leaders are relying on mathematical models to make public health and economic decisions.

Scientists create model to predict multipathogen epidemics
In one of the first studies of its kind, bioscientists from Rice University and the University of Michigan have shown how to use the interactions between pathogens in individual hosts to predict the severity of multipathogen epidemics.

APS tip sheet: Predicting epidemics' speed
New analysis predicts how quickly an epidemic could spread globally.

Read More: Epidemics News and Epidemics Current Events
Brightsurf.com is a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program designed to provide a means for sites to earn advertising fees by advertising and linking to Amazon.com.