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The physics of earthquake forecasting

February 29, 2012

One year on from the magnitude-9.0 earthquake that unleashed a devastating tsunami and caused a partial meltdown of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant, this month's special issue of Physics World, on the theme of "Physics and the Earth", includes an investigation by journalist Edwin Cartlidge into the latest advances in earthquake forecasting.

In addition to the special issue, physicsworld.com hosts an exclusive video documentary reviewing the fundamental science behind earthquakes and assessing the current efforts that are being made around the world to forecast these events. From Monday 27 February the video can be viewed here http://physicsworld.com/cws/article/multimedia/48784.

The huge responsibility that comes with assessing the likelihood of earthquakes was never more evident than in March 2009, when a group of 11 Italian scientists met to discuss the risk of a powerful earthquake striking the town of L'Aquila, after a swarm of small quakes had hit the area continuously for four months.

After concluding that there were no grounds for alarm, a devastating magnitude-6.3 earthquake struck the town on 6 April that year, leaving 308 people dead. Now, seven of those 11 scientists are on trial for manslaughter.

Thomas Jordan, chairman of the International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting (ICEF), argues in Physics World that the tragedy at L'Aquila highlights how vital it is for us to understand which are the most reliable types of forecasting, so that we have the best possible information at our fingertips.

Finding specific, natural events that may flag up an impending earthquake has been given a lot of thought; for example, a long-standing idea is that animals flee a specific area after somehow sensing an upcoming quake.

These precursors are unconvincing, however; and while we are unlikely to ever be able to predict precisely when, where and with what magnitude particular earthquakes will strike, much can be gained from short-term "probabilistic" forecasting, which can give the odds that an earthquake above a certain size will occur within a given area and time.

Still, these short-term "probabilistic" methods have their limitations, as was demonstrated a year ago this month when even the most up-to-date models did not predict the Japanese earthquake.

"This approach is tricky because no-one can quite agree on which are the best models. So, we have uncertainty on uncertainty. But can we ignore the information that they give us? The earthquakes in L'Aquila and New Zealand taught us we don't have that luxury," says Jordan.

The special issue of Physics World can be downloaded as a PDF free of charge from Thursday 8 March at physicsworld.com.

Also in this issue


  • Lessons from Fukushima -- Mike Weightman, UK's chief inspector of nuclear installations -- discusses what we can learn from last year's nuclear incident

  • Physics and fracking -- journalist Jon Cartwright examines how physicists can help assess the controversial process of releasing gas from shale by pumping sand and chemicals in at high pressures

  • The Earth from afar -- a set of stunning images of our planet produced using a range of visualization techniques

  • Prospecting with geoneutrinos -- how tiny almost massless neutrinos, generated from radioactive decay deep within the Earth, could shed light on the interior of our planet

  • When north moves south -- could the movement of tectonic plates explain the variation in the rate of reversal of the Earth's magnetic field?

  • A pressing matter -- studies of the conditions deep inside our planet suggest that its core may contain immense crystals of iron up to 10 km long

-end-


IOP Publishing

Related Earthquake Articles:

From where will the next big earthquake hit the city of Istanbul?
Scientists reckon with an earthquake with a magnitude of 7 or greater in this region in the coming years.
Dissection of the 2015 Bonin deep earthquake
Researchers at Tohoku University's Department of Geophysics, have been studying the deep earthquake which occurred on May 30, 2015, to the west of Japan's Bonin Islands.
The search for the earthquake nucleus
Where a tectonic plate dives under another, in the so-called subduction zones at ocean margins, many strong earthquakes occur.
Better understanding post-earthquake fault movement
Preparation and good timing enabled Gareth Funning and a team of researchers to collect a unique data set following the 2014 South Napa earthquake that showed different parts of the fault, sometimes only a few kilometers apart, moved at different speeds and at different times.
The maximum earthquake magnitude for North Turkey
The Istanbul metropolitan region faces a high probability for a large earthquake in the near future.
Double dose of bad earthquake news
A team of researchers, including one from the University of California, Riverside, has discovered that earthquake ruptures can jump much further than previously thought, a finding that could have severe implications on the Los Angeles area and other regions in the world.
Discovery of hidden earthquake presents challenge to earthquake early-warning systems
Seismologists at the University of Liverpool studying the 2011 Chile earthquake have discovered a previously undetected earthquake which took place seconds after the initial rupture.
Babe Ruth and earthquake hazard maps
Northwestern University researchers have turned to an unusual source -- Major League Baseball -- to help learn why maps used to predict shaking in future earthquakes often do poorly.
Earthquake rupture halted by seamounts
Experts expected for some time that one of the next mega earthquakes occurs off northern Chile.
Catastrophic landslides post-earthquake
In the last few months, it has once more become clear that large earthquakes can solicit catastrophic landsliding.

Related Earthquake Reading:

Earthquakes (Let's-Read-and-Find-Out Science 2)
by Dr. Franklyn M. Branley (Author), Megan Lloyd (Illustrator)

Read and find out about one of nature’s most mysterious forces—the earthquake. Some earthquakes are so small that you don’t even feel them, while others can make even big buildings shake! Learn why earthquakes happen, where they are most likely to occur, and what to do if one happens near you.

Now rebranded with a new cover look and with updated text and art, this classic picture book describes the causes and effects of earthquakes (including a tsunami). This book features rich vocabulary and fascinating cross-sections of mountains, volcanoes, and faults in the earth’s moving... View Details


Earthquakes (True Books: Earth Science (Paperback))
by Ker Than (Author)

- Clean new design for easy readability and comprehension
- Updated text presented in a lively, continuous narrative
- New center-spread sidebar feature presenting material in a fun, creative way
- Excellent age-appropriate introduction to curriculum-relevant subjects
- Important Words glossary clarifies subject-specific vocabulary
- Resources section encourages independent study
- Index makes navigating subject matter easy View Details


I Survived the San Francisco Earthquake, 1906 (I Survived #5)
by Lauren Tarshis (Author), Scott Dawson (Illustrator)

Ten-year-old Leo loves being a newsboy in San Francisco -- not only does he get to make some money to help his family, he's free to explore the amazing, hilly city as it changes and grows with the new century. Horse-drawn carriages share the streets with shiny new automobiles, new businesses and families move in every day from everywhere, and anything seems possible.

But early one spring morning, everything changes. Leo's world is shaken -- literally -- and he finds himself stranded in the middle of San Francisco as it crumbles and burns to the ground. Does Leo have what it takes to... View Details


The Great Quake: How the Biggest Earthquake in North America Changed Our Understanding of the Planet
by Henry Fountain (Author)

New York Times Book Review Editors' Choice

In the bestselling tradition of Erik Larson’s Isaac’s Storm, The Great Quake is a riveting narrative about the biggest earthquake in North American recorded history -- the 1964 Alaska earthquake that demolished the city of Valdez and swept away the island village of Chenega -- and the geologist who hunted for clues to explain how and why it took place.

At 5:36 p.m. on March 27, 1964, a magnitude 9.2. earthquake – the second most powerful in world history – struck the young state of Alaska. The... View Details


Earthquakes
by Seymour Simon (Author)

Seymour Simon knows how to explain science to kids and make it fun. He was a teacher for over twenty years, has written more than 250 books, and has won multiple awards. In Earthquakes, Simon introduces elementary-school readers to earthquakes through engaging descriptions and stunning full-color photographs. He teaches readers why and how earthquakes happen and the damage they can cause through pictures, diagrams, and maps. He also gives real life examples of earthquakes that have occurred all over the world. This book includes a glossary and index.

Supports the Common Core... View Details


Earthquake in the Early Morning (Magic Tree House #24) (Magic Tree House (R))
by Mary Pope Osborne (Author), Sal Murdocca (Illustrator)

The #1 bestselling chapter book series of all time celebrates 25 years with new covers and a new, easy-to-use numbering system!

An adventure that will shake you up! That's what Jack and Annie get when the Magic Tree House whisks them back to California in 1906. As soon as they arrive, the famous San Francisco earthquake hits the city. Can Jack and Annie save the day? Or will San Francisco be destroyed first?

Did you know that there’s a Magic Tree House book for every kid?

Magic Tree House: Adventures with Jack and Annie, perfect for readers who are just beginning... View Details


National Geographic Kids Everything Volcanoes and Earthquakes: Earthshaking photos, facts, and fun!
by Kathy Furgang (Author)

National Geographic Kids Everything Volcanoes and Earthquakes explodes with incredible photos and amazing facts about the awesome powers of nature. You'll find out that three-quarters of Earth's volcanoes are underwater, that an earthquake in Chile shortened the day by 1.26 milliseconds, and much more. Bursting with fascinating information about the biggest volcanic eruptions and earth-shattering earthquakes, this book takes a fun approach to science, introducing kids to plate tectonics and the tumultuous forces brewing beneath the Earth's surface. Filled with fabulous photos and... View Details


Quakeland: On the Road to America's Next Devastating Earthquake
by Kathryn Miles (Author)

A journey around the United States in search of the truth about the threat of earthquakes leads to spine-tingling discoveries, unnerving experts, and ultimately the kind of preparations that will actually help guide us through disasters. It’s a road trip full of surprises.
 
Earthquakes. You need to worry about them only if you’re in San Francisco, right? Wrong. We have been making enormous changes to subterranean America, and Mother Earth, as always, has been making some of her own. . . . The consequences for our real estate, our civil engineering, and our... View Details


Earthquakes! (TIME FOR KIDS® Nonfiction Readers)
by Teacher Created Materials (Author)

Early elementary readers find out what causes earthquakes and what to do to stay safe if one occurs in this helpful nonfiction reader. Featuring informational text, colorful maps, diagrams, and vibrant photos, this book keeps children engaged and fascinated at the same time!

About Shell Education
Rachelle Cracchiolo started the company with a friend and fellow teacher. Both were eager to share their ideas and passion for education with other classroom leaders. What began as a hobby, selling lesson plans to local stores, became a part-time job after a full day of teaching,... View Details


If You Lived At The Time Of The Great San Francisco Earthquake
by Ellen Levine (Author), Pat Grant (Illustrator)

If you lived at the time of the Great San Francisco Earthquake
--What things in your house would you try to save?
--How would you carry the things you saved?
--Where would you live if your house was destroyed? This book takes you to San Francisco, California, shortly before, during, and after April 18, 1906.
View Details

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