Nav: Home

A new method to improve tropical cyclone intensity forecasts

March 09, 2020

In numerical weather forecasting research, how to improve short-term forecasts of tropical cyclone intensity is a challenging problem that has long plagued meteorologists and operational forecasters, despite meteorologists having greatly increased the accuracy of the initial field through increasing observations.in either quantity or quality. So, what else are we missing?

According to a recently published study in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, the missing piece of the jigsaw is reducing the model error of numerical weather forecasting models. There are many reasons for model errors, such as our incomplete understanding of tropical cyclone physical processes, the uncertainty in many parameters of parameterization schemes, the insufficiently fine resolution, truncated errors, and oversimplification of parameterization schemes to save on calculation costs, and so on. "It would cost too much [computationally] if we try to overcome all the model errors of different sources one by one," says Wansuo Duan, a Senior Scientist with the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences.

Duan's team propose a new idea to solve the above problems, based on the Nonlinear Forcing Singular Vector (NFSV) method, which Duan's team developed. "We consider the model errors, caused by different sources, as a whole to explore their impact on the forecast accuracy," he adds.

By utilizing this method, the team employed the WRF model to identify the uncertainty of which variable and which area is more likely to cause large errors in short-term tropical cyclone intensity forecasts. Taking into account the characteristics of observations made by the Fengyun-4 satellite, they used the above method and identified that the uncertainty of the rate of change in atmospheric temperature in the middle and lower layers of the typhoon core area has the greatest influence on the uncertainty of the typhoon's simulation.

"Satellites can adaptively collect corresponding observations in a given region, which can then be further used to reduce the model errors and improve short-term forecasts of tropical cyclone intensity," concludes Duan.
-end-


Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences

Related Accuracy Articles:

New perception metric balances reaction time, accuracy
Researchers at Carnegie Mellon University have developed a new metric for evaluating how well self-driving cars respond to changing road conditions and traffic, making it possible for the first time to compare perception systems for both accuracy and reaction time.
Improving the accuracy of typhoon forecasts with radar data assimilation
After the adjustment and improvement of the typhoon structure, the accuracies of the 12-h track and accumulated precipitation forecasts were significantly improved.
Owner behavior affects effort and accuracy in dogs' communications
Researchers from the Max Planck Institute for the Science of Human History and Friedrich Schiller University in Jena have found that dogs adapt their communicative strategies to their environment and that owner behavior influences communicative effort and success.
Cardiorespiratory fitness assessment improves accuracy of health predictions
According to a new study in Mayo Clinic Proceedings, published by Elsevier, taking cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) into account along with traditional risk factors such as age, sex, blood pressure, cholesterol, and smoking, improves the accuracy of mortality risk assessment.
New framework brings accuracy, efficiency to identifying stop words
Professor Luis Amaral and postdoctoral fellow Martin Gerlach's algorithmic approach automatically recognizes uninformative words in large collections of text, which could help researchers dramatically reduce computational requirements during data analyses.
Pinpointing biomolecules with nanometer accuracy
Scientists at Tokyo Institute of Technology (Tokyo Tech) demonstrate a new approach in fluorescence microscopy that can be used to locate individual biomolecules in 3D space with nanometer-scale precision.
New algorithm can distinguish cyberbullies from normal Twitter users with 90% accuracy
A team of researchers, including faculty at Binghamton University, have developed machine learning algorithms which can successfully identify bullies and aggressors on Twitter with 90 percent accuracy.
AI improves efficiency and accuracy of digital breast tomosynthesis
Artificial intelligence (AI) helps improve the efficiency and accuracy of an advanced imaging technology used to screen for breast cancer, according to a new study.
Engineering 'hairpins' increases CRISPR accuracy
Biomedical engineers at Duke University have developed a method for improving the accuracy of the CRISPR genome editing technology by an average of 50-fold.
Sacrificing accuracy to see the big picture
Humans have a knack for finding patterns in the world around them.
More Accuracy News and Accuracy Current Events

Trending Science News

Current Coronavirus (COVID-19) News

Top Science Podcasts

We have hand picked the top science podcasts of 2020.
Now Playing: TED Radio Hour

Debbie Millman: Designing Our Lives
From prehistoric cave art to today's social media feeds, to design is to be human. This hour, designer Debbie Millman guides us through a world made and remade–and helps us design our own paths.
Now Playing: Science for the People

#574 State of the Heart
This week we focus on heart disease, heart failure, what blood pressure is and why it's bad when it's high. Host Rachelle Saunders talks with physician, clinical researcher, and writer Haider Warraich about his book "State of the Heart: Exploring the History, Science, and Future of Cardiac Disease" and the ails of our hearts.
Now Playing: Radiolab

Insomnia Line
Coronasomnia is a not-so-surprising side-effect of the global pandemic. More and more of us are having trouble falling asleep. We wanted to find a way to get inside that nighttime world, to see why people are awake and what they are thinking about. So what'd Radiolab decide to do?  Open up the phone lines and talk to you. We created an insomnia hotline and on this week's experimental episode, we stayed up all night, taking hundreds of calls, spilling secrets, and at long last, watching the sunrise peek through.   This episode was produced by Lulu Miller with Rachael Cusick, Tracie Hunte, Tobin Low, Sarah Qari, Molly Webster, Pat Walters, Shima Oliaee, and Jonny Moens. Want more Radiolab in your life? Sign up for our newsletter! We share our latest favorites: articles, tv shows, funny Youtube videos, chocolate chip cookie recipes, and more. Support Radiolab by becoming a member today at Radiolab.org/donate.