Predicting water storage beyond 2-5 years over global semiarid regions

April 02, 2018

Decadal climate prediction aims to improve near-term (10-30 years) climate change projection by using the experiences of weather forecasting and seasonal climate prediction. It has raised a wide concern since the implementation of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), and the climate community is now trying to turn the decadal prediction from a pure research to a quasi-real-time operational effort. However, very limited information is known about the decadal hydrological predictability over land, which is more relevant to the water resource and infrastructure management.

By using a set of global land model ensemble simulations with perfect initial or boundary conditions, Prof. YUAN Xing and his graduate student ZHU Enda from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics at Chinese Academy of Sciences made skillful prediction for terrestrial water storage over 1/3 land areas (excluding Antarctic, Greenland, and desert regions) beyond 2-5 years, especially for semiarid regions where deep soil water and aquifer have a long memory and a non-negligible variability. The hindcast skill can be further enhanced by incorporating low-frequency climate information, including the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.

"It is now perhaps the time to consider decadal hydrological prediction given tremendous demand from stakeholders for a reliable hydroclimate information over the next few years or even decades, and given promising skill obtained in our study" says YUAN.

This study is recently published in Geophysical Research Letters.
-end-


Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences

Related Atmospheric Physics Articles from Brightsurf:

Atmospheric dust levels are rising in the Great Plains
A study finds that atmospheric dust levels are rising across the Great Plains at a rate of up to 5% per year.

New, rapid mechanism for atmospheric particle formation
Carnegie Mellon University researchers working with an international team of scientists have discovered a previously unknown mechanism that allows atmospheric particles to very rapidly form under certain conditions.

Atmospheric chemists move indoors
Most people spend the majority of their time at home, yet little is known about the air they breathe inside their houses.

Helping physics teachers who don't know physics
A shortage of high school physics teachers has led to teachers with little-to-no training taking over physics classrooms, reports show.

Getting the most out of atmospheric data analysis
An international team including researchers from Kanazawa University used a new approach to analyze an atmospheric data set spanning 18 years for the investigation of new-particle formation.

New clues to origins of mysterious atmospheric waves in Antarctica
CU Boulder team finds link between gravity waves in the upper and lower Antarctic atmosphere, helping create a clearer picture of global air circulation.

Responses of the tropical atmospheric circulation to climate change
An international team describes the climate change-induced responses of the tropical atmospheric circulation and their impacts on the hydrological cycle.

Atmospheric seasons could signal alien life
To complement traditional biosignatures, and thanks to funding from the NASA Astrobiology Institute, scientists at the University of California, Riverside's Alternative Earths Astrobiology Center are developing the first quantitative framework for dynamic biosignatures based on seasonal changes in the Earth's atmosphere.

The Eurasian atmospheric circulation anomalies can persist from winter to the following spring
Surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies have pronounced impacts on agriculture, socioeconomic development, and people's daily lives.

A new 'atmospheric disequilibrium' could help detect life on other planets
A new study has found a simple approach to look for life that might be more promising than just looking for oxygen.

Read More: Atmospheric Physics News and Atmospheric Physics Current Events
Brightsurf.com is a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program designed to provide a means for sites to earn advertising fees by advertising and linking to Amazon.com.