Nav: Home

Criminal justice system should be cautious when approaching risk assessment

April 09, 2019

HOUSTON - (April 9, 2019) - Imagine a parole board trying to figure out whether a previously convicted person eligible for parole poses a future threat to the community.

Every day, in scenarios like this, decisionmakers in the criminal justice system use risk assessment tools in that help them determine the fate of people accused or convicted of crimes. But those decisionmakers need to be aware that the tools they're using can have problems, according to a Rice University sociologist.

Robert Werth, a senior lecturer in sociology in Rice's School of Social Sciences, reviewed research on various methods for assessing risk among accused or convicted criminals. "Risk and punishment: The recent history and uncertain future of actuarial, algorithmic and 'evidence-based' penal techniques" will appear in an upcoming print edition of Sociology Compass.

Actuarial and algorithmic instruments are among the tools used to assess these risks, along with the professional judgement of personnel such as parole officers, correctional officers and psychiatrists. Werth said that actuarial risk assessments can reduce discrepancies in how individuals are assessed and treated. But he said they can also exacerbate existing inequalities, particularly on the basis of socioeconomic status or race.

"These tools make calculations of risk based on what other people have done, which ultimately determine an individual's punishment or freedom," Werth said. "These results are usually based on arrest, rather than conviction. Previous literature has shown that some neighborhoods, especially poorer, urban communities with higher number of minorities, tend to be policed more extensively. That inevitably leads to higher arrest rates for individuals living in these areas. This can, and will, skew risk assessment scores to more harshly assess and punish individuals who are of lower socioeconomic position and who are racial minorities.

Actuarial science, the calculation and management of risk and uncertainty, was developed in the 18th century as a way to increase profit and minimize risk for commercial ventures. In the 1920s, it made its way into the penal system with criminal offender risk assessments. In the 1970s and beyond, the use of actuarial risk assessment in criminal justice began expanding, and it has proliferated in recent years. Today it guides an array of criminal justice decisions, such as participation in diversion programs, the delivery of correctional services, and probation and parole case plans. It also informs a growing number of decisions on pretrial detention and criminal sentencing.

Werth said previous research about actuarial risk assessment raises important questions about its constitutionality and ethics. "These calculations can ultimately lead to people being punished for what they might do rather than what they have actually done, which would seem to violate our standard conception of due process," he said.

Werth cautions against rushing into actuarial risk assessment in criminal justice, noting that while it may help reduce inconsistencies within a particular location, it can also lead to certain people being targeted more often.

"Proponents argue that it is a objective, scientific and transparent way of reducing discrepancies in the system," he said. "However, there are numerous reasons to be cautious and concerned about their potential for negative impacts. First and foremost, research shows that they may reproduce class-based and race-based inequalities. Further, some of the available assessment tools use proprietary algorithms developed by for-profit companies, which raise questions of transparency and fairness."

Werth stressed that risk assessment -- whether conducted by a computer or a human -- is not a perfect science. "The bulk of existing research doesn't necessarily suggest abandoning the use of actuarial risk assessments, but it does give us reasons for caution," he said. "Before rushing to adopt or use these tools, we need to have conversations about their problems and weaknesses."

Werth said that more research is needed on how actuarial risk assessments are impacting incarceration and punishment rates, and whether or not they are facilitating what's known as "net widening" -- increasing the overall number of people enmeshed in the criminal justice system.
-end-
This news release can be found online at news.rice.edu.

Follow Rice News and Media Relations on Twitter @RiceUNews.

Related materials:

Robert Werth bio: https://sociology.rice.edu/robert-werth

Photo link: https://cpb-us-e1.wpmucdn.com/news-network.rice.edu/dist/c/2/files/2018/04/werth-b-1h63prb.jpg

Photo credit: Jeff Fitlow/Rice University

Located on a 300-acre forested campus in Houston, Rice University is consistently ranked among the nation's top 20 universities by U.S. News & World Report. Rice has highly respected schools of Architecture, Business, Continuing Studies, Engineering, Humanities, Music, Natural Sciences and Social Sciences and is home to the Baker Institute for Public Policy. With 3,962 undergraduates and 3,027 graduate students, Rice's undergraduate student-to-faculty ratio is just under 6-to-1. Its residential college system builds close-knit communities and lifelong friendships, just one reason why Rice is ranked No. 1 for lots of race/class interaction and No. 2 for quality of life by the Princeton Review. Rice is also rated as a best value among private universities by Kiplinger's Personal Finance.

Rice University
Office of Public Affairs / News & Media Relations

David Ruth
713-348-6327
david@rice.edu

Amy McCaig
713-348-6777
amym@rice.edu

Rice University

Related Punishment Articles:

How the brain decides to punish or not
Oksana Zinchenko, Research Fellow at the Institute of Cognitive Neuroscience, HSE University, has conducted meta-analysis of 17 articles to find out which areas of the brain are involved decision-making for rendering social punishment.
Visible punishment institutions are key in promoting large-scale cooperation: Study
New international research by Monash University has found that one way to overcome social dilemmas is through visible prosocial punishment -- the existence of collective institutions that punish individuals who don't cooperate.
Harsh punishment, maltreatment in childhood associated with adult antisocial behavior
Harsh physical punishment (pushing, grabbing, shoving, slapping and hitting), maltreatment (physical abuse, sexual abuse, emotional abuse, emotional neglect, physical neglect and exposure to intimate partner violence) and a combination of the two during childhood were all associated with antisocial behaviors in adulthood among men and women.
How the brain hears and fears
What does the brain do when things go bump in the night?
Youth violence lower in countries with complete ban on corporal punishment
A study published today in the BMJ Open shows that in countries where there is a complete ban on all corporal punishment of children there is less fighting among young people.
National bans on slapping children linked to less youth violence
National bans on parents slapping or spanking their children to punish them for bad behaviour are linked to lower rates of youth violence, reveals an international study published in the online journal BMJ Open.
Male vervet monkeys use punishment and coercion to de-escalate costly intergroup fights
Male vervet monkeys attack members of their own group to prevent them from escalating intergroup encounters into high-risk fights, or to de-escalate ongoing intergroup fights.
Eliminating injustice imposed by the death penalty
The Black Lives Matter movement has called for the abolition of capital punishment in response to what it calls 'the war against Black people' and 'Black communities.' This article defends the two central contentions in the movement's abolitionist stance: first, that US capital punishment practices represent a wrong to black communities, and second, that the most defensible remedy for this wrong is the abolition of the death penalty.
Is punishment as effective as we think?
Punishment might not be an effective means to get members of society to cooperate for the common good, according to a social dilemma experiment.
Discovery could lead to new treatment for anxiety, addiction
New research provides fresh insight into how the brain processes reward and punishment, opening new avenues for developing treatment of conditions ranging from anxiety to addictive behaviors such as drug abuse.
More Punishment News and Punishment Current Events

Top Science Podcasts

We have hand picked the top science podcasts of 2019.
Now Playing: TED Radio Hour

In & Out Of Love
We think of love as a mysterious, unknowable force. Something that happens to us. But what if we could control it? This hour, TED speakers on whether we can decide to fall in — and out of — love. Guests include writer Mandy Len Catron, biological anthropologist Helen Fisher, musician Dessa, One Love CEO Katie Hood, and psychologist Guy Winch.
Now Playing: Science for the People

#543 Give a Nerd a Gift
Yup, you guessed it... it's Science for the People's annual holiday episode that helps you figure out what sciency books and gifts to get that special nerd on your list. Or maybe you're looking to build up your reading list for the holiday break and a geeky Christmas sweater to wear to an upcoming party. Returning are pop-science power-readers John Dupuis and Joanne Manaster to dish on the best science books they read this past year. And Rachelle Saunders and Bethany Brookshire squee in delight over some truly delightful science-themed non-book objects for those whose bookshelves are already full. Since...
Now Playing: Radiolab

An Announcement from Radiolab