Younger Scots and Welsh may become more likely to support Nationalist parties

May 04, 2007

Generational change is contributing to a decline in British national pride with young people in Scotland and Wales likely to become increasingly responsive to nationalist parties, a study sponsored by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) shows.

The researchers predict that "some of the glue holding the different parts of the UK together is likely to become weaker" as older generations of unionists die out. This will create greater potential for independence movements to make headway. "The success of such movements will depend on political contingencies that cannot be predicted, but affective attachments to Britain will provide a weaker defence against separatism that they have done in the past," they say.

The study, by the National Centre for Social Research and involving investigators from a number of universities, was a collaborative project across the territories of the UK. It examined public attitudes to national identity and the political system in the light of devolution, introduced in Scotland and Wales in 1999. Access to earlier studies made it possible to compare changes in attitudes over time. The findings have particular relevance as Scotland and Wales go to the polls this week after an election campaign where, in Scotland, independence has been a major issue.

Researchers examined whether the introduction of devolution had affected national identify; the impact on the UK political system; whether patterns were similar or different across the territories, and whether any changes in national identity could be attributed to devolution or were the result of other processes.

The findings show that: The research concludes that devolution appears to have had little impact on national identify, except perhaps in England where it may have strengthened an awareness of differences between English and British identify. Instead, there appears to be a gradual long-term process of declining British identify that predates devolution.

It finds that the broad contours of the current devolution settlement are in tune with public opinion across Britain, and that devolution has secured a high level of legitimacy in both Wales and Scotland. People in Scotland and Wales have substantially higher trust in the devolved authorities than in the UK government. Meanwhile there remains a substantial appetite for further devolution of power in both territories.

Intriguingly, say the researchers, "support for devolution has been maintained in Scotland and increased in Wales despite the fact that the perceived impact of the devolved institutions to date has not lived up to the expectations of people at the time of the 1997 referendums." In Scotland in 1997, for example, 73 per cent of people thought having a Scottish Parliament would increase standards of education: but by 2003 only 23 per cent believed it was actually doing so. The equivalent figures in Wales were 50 per cent and 27 per cent.

More than half the people who participated in the last Scottish Parliament elections in 2003 said they voted mainly on Scottish issues, while more than a quarter voted on UK considerations.

Prof Lindsay Paterson, professor of educational policy at Edinburgh University and one of the researchers, said: "Voting in the elections this week will be influenced mainly by what David Cameron calls 'bread and butter issues'. But voter's views of which party bakes the best bread are influenced now by whether they believe that the bread is baked in Scotland or Wales, rather than imported from England.

"The battle for votes between Labour and the nationalist parties is over which party best stands up for Scotland or Wales. The expected close results will show that Labour's long-standing claim to represent those countries is more tenuous that it has been for several generations. Whoever wins, that loss of unchallenged national leadership by Labour will be the most lasting outcome of these elections."
-end-
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT
Professor Lindsay Patterson, University of Edinburgh, Tel 0131 651 6380, email: lindsay.paterson@ed.ac.uk

FOR FURTHER SPOKESPEOPLE ON THE ISSUES SURROUNDING DEVOLUTION PLEASE CONTACT THE ESRC PRESS OFFICE:
Alexandra Saxon Tel: 01793 413032 / 07971027335, e-mail: alexandra.saxon@esrc.ac.uk
Annika Howard Tel: 01793 413119, e-mail: annika.howard@esrc.ac.uk

NOTES FOR EDITORS

1. The research 'Devolution: Identity and Public Opinion in Scotland/Scottish Election Study 2003' was funded by the Economic and Social Research Council. It was carried out by a team of researchers, including Professor Lindsay Patterson.

2. Methodology - This project was part of a closely co-ordinated set of studies conducted in the four territories of the UK - England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. Interviews were carried out with representative samples of the adult population (age 18+) in each of the four territories.

3. The Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) is the UK's largest funding agency for research and postgraduate training relating to social and economic issues. It supports independent, high quality research relevant to business, the public sector and voluntary organisations. The ESRC's planned total expenditure in 2007-08 is £181 million. At any one time the ESRC supports over 4,000 researchers and postgraduate students in academic institutions and research policy institutes. More at http://www.esrcsocietytoday.ac.uk

4. ESRC Society Today offers free access to a broad range of social science research and presents it in a way that makes it easy to navigate and saves users valuable time. As well as bringing together all ESRC-funded research and key online resources such as the Social Science Information Gateway and the UK Data Archive, non-ESRC resources are included, for example the Office for National Statistics. The portal provides access to early findings and research summaries, as well as full texts and original datasets through integrated search facilities. More at http://www.esrcsocietytoday.ac.uk

5. The ESRC confirms the quality of its funded research by evaluating research projects through a process of peer review. This research has been graded as 'outstanding'.

Economic & Social Research Council

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