Southern Europe risks Zika outbreaks this summer

June 10, 2016

Established Aedes-mosquito population could spread the Zika virus in Europe this summer if infected travelers introduce the virus. An analysis of temperatures, vectorial capacity, basic reproductive number (R0), and air traveler flows suggests parts of Southern Europe may be at risk for Zika outbreaks between June and August. This according to a study, led by Umeå University researchers in Sweden and published in the journal EBioMedicine.

"We know warm climates create the kind of conditions suitable for mosquito-borne illnesses to spread," says Joacim Rocklöv, researcher at Umeå University's Unit for Epidemiology and Global Health and co-author of the article.

"Vectorial capacity depends on a number of parameters but in general, warmer temperatures increase the rate in which the female mosquitos bite, the mosquito virus reproduction, and their virus transmission risk. The presence of established Aedes mosquito populations, the warmer climate and the coinciding peak flow of air travelers into Europe, is a triage making Southern Europe fertile ground for Zika."

Following a similar epidemiological study conducted on the similar dengue virus, the group of researchers led by Joacim Rocklöv at Umeå University, used a temperature dependent computer model to predict Zika virus infection risks for Europe. The research exploration was undertaken in close collaboration with the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC). In the analysis, the researchers overlaid data on monthly flows of airline travelers arriving in European cities from Zika-affected areas, data on month-by-month estimates of virus infection reproduction capabilities of Aedes-mosquito populations in Europe, and human population data within the areas where mosquito-borne transmission of the Zika virus could be possible.

The main findings, presented in EBioMedicine, a journal initiative integrating the Lancet and Cell, are:

The risk assessment assumes that European Aedes-mosquitos have the same potential to spread the Zika virus as their South-, Middle- and North American counterparts.

Earlier research has shown that increasing temperatures will enlarge Europe's seasonal window for the potential spread of mosquito-borne viral disease and expand the geographic areas at risk for epidemics to include large parts of Europe. The threat includes tropical and sub-tropical viruses such as Zika and Dengue.

The Aedes mosquitos -- Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus -- are largely responsible for the transmission of the Zika virus. Both Aedes mosquitos are likely to become a fixture in Europe. Historically, Aedes mosquitos were present in many European countries during the first half of the 1900s. Aedes aegypti has recently been documented in Russia and Georgia. And current surveillance indicate that Aedes albopictus are present in much of Southern Europe and as far north as the Netherlands.
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Read a digital publication of the article in EBioMedicine

Read a similar report from Umeå University

Umeå University is Sweden's fifth oldest university located in the mid-northern region of Sweden surrounded by tranquility and fresh air and still close to knowledge, expertise and ground-breaking research. The University has approximately 32,000 registered students and more than 4,200 employees. Read more at http://www.umu.se

Umea University

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