Nav: Home

Evaluation method for the impact of wind power fluctuation on power system quality

June 20, 2018

Abrupt changes of wind power generation output are a source of severe damage to power systems. Researchers at Kyoto University developed a stochastic modeling method that enables to evaluate the impact of such phenomena. The feature of the method lies in its significant computational effectiveness in comparison to standard Monte Carlo simulation, and its applicability to analysis and synthesis of various systems subject to extremum outliers.

Introduction of wind power generation into the electric power system is proceeding actively, mainly in the United States and Europe, and is expected to continue in Japan. However, upon the implementation, it is crucial to deal with prediction uncertainty of output fluctuation. The fluctuation of wind power generation is usually small, but it becomes extremely large due to the occurrence of gusts and turbulence at a non-negligible frequency(Fig.1). Such extreme outliers have been regarded as a source of severe damage to power systems.

To cope with such a fluctuation of wind power generation, the goal setting such as "absolutely keep the frequency fluctuation within 0.2 Hz" would be unattainable or would result in an overly conservative design. Therefore, the probabilistic goal setting such as "keep the frequency fluctuation within 0.2 Hz with 99.7% or more" is indispensable.

Probabilistic uncertainty is evaluated statistically, commonly by assuming that it obeys normal distribution for its mathematical processability. The output outliers in wind power generation are, however, more frequent than represented by normal distribution. Even if a complicated simulator can be constructed without assuming normal distribution, it is not realistic to investigate the statistical property by Monte Carlo simulation. This is because the required number of samples explodes before sufficiently many extreme outliers occur.

An evaluation method was developed for the impact of wind power fluctuation on power system quality. The method first builds probabilistic models assuming the stable distribution (an extension of the normal distribution) on the uncertainty. Then, instead of using the model as a simulator to generate data samples, we compute the statistical properties directly from parameters in the model. The important feature is 1. the influence of extreme outliers can be properly considered, 2. model can be determined easily from actual data, and 3. computation cost is very low. The method was proved to be valid through its application to frequency deviation estimation based on actual power system data.

This newly proposed probabilistic evaluation method enables us to quantitatively evaluate the power system risk caused by the occurrence of extremally abrupt changes of wind power generation. Countermeasures based on the evaluation would contribute to improvement of the reliability and economic efficiency of the electric power system. It should be also noted that the proposed method is applicable to analysis and synthesis of various systems which have extreme outliers.
-end-


Japan Science and Technology Agency

Related Synthesis Articles:

New technology enables fast protein synthesis
MIT chemists have developed a protocol to rapidly produce protein chains up to 164 amino acids long.
Green chemistry approaches to the synthesis of coumarin derivatives
Coumarin derivatives (coumarins) are a class of compounds with a wide range of biological activities, which have found their application in medicine, pharmacology, cosmetics and food industry.
Synthesis against the clock
Radiolabeled molecules help nuclear physicians to detect and precisely target tumors, which are often developing due to pathological changes in metabolic processes.
Ammonia synthesis made easy with 2D catalyst
Rice University researchers use their knowledge of 2D nanomaterials and develop a 'green' method for the small-scale synthesis of ammonia.
New synthesis method yields degradable polymers
MIT chemists have come up with a way to make certain drug-delivery polymers more readily degradable by adding a novel type of building block to the polymer backbone.
A new strategy for the synthesis of complex natural products
Chemists from the University of Basel have succeeded in synthesizing two complex natural products from the group of dithiodiketopiperazines (DTPs).
A new, unified pathway for prebiotic RNA synthesis
Adding to support for the RNA world hypothesis, Sidney Becker and colleagues have presented what's not been shown before -- a single chemical pathway that could generate both the purine and pyrimidine nucleosides, the key building blocks of RNA.
Bottom-up synthesis of crystalline 2D polymers
Scientists at TU Dresden and Ulm University have succeeded in synthesizing sheet-like 2D polymers by a bottom-up process for the first time.
Clarification of a new synthesis mechanism of semiconductor atomic sheet
Researchers at Tohoku University in Japan succeeded in clarifying a new synthesis mechanism regarding transition metal dichalcogenides (TMD), which are semiconductor atomic sheets having thickness in atomic order.
Synthesis of UV absorbers from cashew nut shell liquid
Researchers succeeded in using cashew nut shell liquid (CNSL) as a substitute for petroleum in organic synthesis.
More Synthesis News and Synthesis Current Events

Trending Science News

Current Coronavirus (COVID-19) News

Top Science Podcasts

We have hand picked the top science podcasts of 2020.
Now Playing: TED Radio Hour

Listen Again: Meditations on Loneliness
Original broadcast date: April 24, 2020. We're a social species now living in isolation. But loneliness was a problem well before this era of social distancing. This hour, TED speakers explore how we can live and make peace with loneliness. Guests on the show include author and illustrator Jonny Sun, psychologist Susan Pinker, architect Grace Kim, and writer Suleika Jaouad.
Now Playing: Science for the People

#565 The Great Wide Indoors
We're all spending a bit more time indoors this summer than we probably figured. But did you ever stop to think about why the places we live and work as designed the way they are? And how they could be designed better? We're talking with Emily Anthes about her new book "The Great Indoors: The Surprising Science of how Buildings Shape our Behavior, Health and Happiness".
Now Playing: Radiolab

The Third. A TED Talk.
Jad gives a TED talk about his life as a journalist and how Radiolab has evolved over the years. Here's how TED described it:How do you end a story? Host of Radiolab Jad Abumrad tells how his search for an answer led him home to the mountains of Tennessee, where he met an unexpected teacher: Dolly Parton.Jad Nicholas Abumrad is a Lebanese-American radio host, composer and producer. He is the founder of the syndicated public radio program Radiolab, which is broadcast on over 600 radio stations nationwide and is downloaded more than 120 million times a year as a podcast. He also created More Perfect, a podcast that tells the stories behind the Supreme Court's most famous decisions. And most recently, Dolly Parton's America, a nine-episode podcast exploring the life and times of the iconic country music star. Abumrad has received three Peabody Awards and was named a MacArthur Fellow in 2011.