Nav: Home

For some US counties, climate change will be particularly costly

June 29, 2017

A highly granular assessment of the impacts of climate change on the U.S. economy suggests that each 1°Celsius increase in temperature will cost 1.2% of the country's gross domestic product, on average. Different from past analyses of climate change in the U.S., which suggested the country would benefit or lose as a single entity, this study captures regional differences: locations in the south, for example, are at much higher risk of incurring economic damage, while areas in the Pacific Northwest and New England may experience a slight economic gain. Because losses are expected to be largest in regions that are already poorer, on average, climate change will tend to increase preexisting inequality in the United States, the authors say. Estimates of climate change damage are central to the design of climate policies. To better quantify the costs of climate change in the U.S., and at higher-resolution than in past, Solomon Hsiang and colleagues developed a model that integrated data capturing the effects of short-term weather fluctuations between 1981 and 2010 on six key economic factors, such as agriculture yield and labor supply. They used these data to construct estimates of future economic impacts based on climate change projections under a "business-as-usual" approach (one in which fossil fuels continue to be used intensively). Unsurprisingly, Atlantic coast counties are expected to suffer the largest losses from cyclone intensification and sea level rise, they report. Overall though, southern and midwestern populations are projected to suffer the largest losses, exceeding 20% of gross county product (GCP) in some instances, while some northern and western populations may actually see small economic gains - up to 10% of GCP. The model estimates that average yields in agriculture will decline by about 9%. As well, mortality rates will increase by about 5.4 deaths per 100,000, for each 1°C increase. In a related video interview, Hsiang highlights some of the policy-oriented implications of this work: "We've shown which U.S. regional economies are particularly vulnerable, which will help policymakers... If we are going to adapt, we need to know where to focus."
-end-
These results are highlighted in a Perspective by William A. Pizer. Reporters can find the economic damages projected for their county by visiting this site http://globalpolicy.science/econ-damage-climate-change-usa and using the password "embargoed17."

American Association for the Advancement of Science

Related Climate Change Articles:

The black forest and climate change
Silver and Douglas firs could replace Norway spruce in the long run due to their greater resistance to droughts.
For some US counties, climate change will be particularly costly
A highly granular assessment of the impacts of climate change on the US economy suggests that each 1°Celsius increase in temperature will cost 1.2 percent of the country's gross domestic product, on average.
Climate change label leads to climate science acceptance
A new Cornell University study finds that labels matter when it comes to acceptance of climate science.
Was that climate change?
A new four-step 'framework' aims to test the contribution of climate change to record-setting extreme weather events.
It's more than just climate change
Accurately modeling climate change and interactive human factors -- including inequality, consumption, and population -- is essential for the effective science-based policies and measures needed to benefit and sustain current and future generations.
Climate change scientists should think more about sex
Climate change can have a different impact on male and female fish, shellfish and other marine animals, with widespread implications for the future of marine life and the production of seafood.
Climate change prompts Alaska fish to change breeding behavior
A new University of Washington study finds that one of Alaska's most abundant freshwater fish species is altering its breeding patterns in response to climate change, which could impact the ecology of northern lakes that already acutely feel the effects of a changing climate.
Uncertainties related to climate engineering limit its use in curbing climate change
Climate engineering refers to the systematic, large-scale modification of the environment using various climate intervention techniques.
Public holds polarized views about climate change and trust in climate scientists
There are gaping divisions in Americans' views across every dimension of the climate debate, including causes and cures for climate change and trust in climate scientists and their research, according to a new Pew Research Center survey.
The psychology behind climate change denial
In a new thesis in psychology, Kirsti Jylhä at Uppsala University has studied the psychology behind climate change denial.

Related Climate Change Reading:

Climate Change: What Everyone Needs to Know®
by Joseph Romm (Author)

The Politically Incorrect Guide to Climate Change (The Politically Incorrect Guides)
by Marc Morano (Author)

A Global Warming Primer: Answering Your Questions About The Science, The Consequences, and The Solutions
by Jeffrey Bennett (Author)

The Sixth Extinction: An Unnatural History
by Elizabeth Kolbert (Author)

Climate Change: The Facts
by J.Abbot (Author), J.S. Armstrong (Author), A.Bolt (Author), R.Carter (Author), R.Darwall (Author), J.Delingpole (Author), C.Essex (Author), S.Franks (Author), K.Green (Author), D.Laframboise (Author), N.Lawson (Author), B.Lewin (Author), R.Lindzen (Author), J.Marohasy (Author), R.McKitrick (Author), P.Michaels (Author), A.Moran (Author), J.Nova (Author), G.Paltridge (Author), I.Plimer (Author), W.Soon (Author), M.Steyn (Author), A.Watts (Author), Alan Moran (Editor)

This Changes Everything: Capitalism vs. The Climate
by Naomi Klein (Author)

Climate Change: The Facts 2017
by Jennifer Marohasy (Editor)

Drawdown: The Most Comprehensive Plan Ever Proposed to Reverse Global Warming
by Paul Hawken (Editor), Tom Steyer (Editor)

Dire Predictions, 2nd Edition: Understanding Climate Change
by Michael E. Mann (Author), Lee R. Kump (Author)

The Thinking Person's Guide to Climate Change
by Robert Henson (Author)

Best Science Podcasts 2018

We have hand picked the best science podcasts for 2018. Sit back and enjoy new science podcasts updated daily from your favorite science news services and scientists.
Now Playing: TED Radio Hour

The Right To Speak
Should all speech, even the most offensive, be allowed on college campuses? And is hearing from those we deeply disagree with ... worth it? This hour, TED speakers explore the debate over free speech. Guests include recent college graduate Zachary Wood, political scientist Jeffrey Howard, novelist Elif Shafak, and journalist and author James Kirchick.
Now Playing: Science for the People

#486 Volcanoes
This week we're talking volcanoes. Because there are few things that fascinate us more than the amazing, unstoppable power of an erupting volcano. First, Jessica Johnson takes us through the latest activity from the Kilauea volcano in Hawaii to help us understand what's happening with this headline-grabbing volcano. And Janine Krippner joins us to highlight some of the lesser-known volcanoes that can be found in the USA, the different kinds of eruptions we might one day see at them, and how damaging they have the potential to be. Related links: Kilauea status report at USGS A beginner's guide to Hawaii's otherworldly...