Nav: Home

A new model to estimate lifetime risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease

July 23, 2018

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality and also contributes to huge health care expenditures in China. Therefore, accurate and early identification of high-risk individuals is important for CVD prevention. The China-PAR (Prediction for atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) Risk in China) project generated equations with excellent capacity to predict lifetime risk for ASCVD by incorporating four large and ongoing cohorts followed up until 2015 with 106,281 Chinese participants, according to a new study published by Science Bulletin.

According to the authors, these are the most recent lifetime risk estimates for ASCVD that predict personalized lifetime risk, and their reliability and generalizability have been verified by internal and external validation. Using these equations will provide novel information for a comprehensive assessment of ASCVD disease burden, especially for young and middle-aged adults with low 10-year risks. Individuals may gain many benefits if interventions start as early as possible. Beside major risk factors (blood pressure, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, current smoking, and diabetes), waist circumference and geographic region (northern/southern China) were included in the ASCVD lifetime risk equations for women and men, and urbanization (urban/rural) and family history of ASCVD were further included in the equations for men.

Based on the findings, the research team has developed tools to estimate lifetime risk, including the web-based calculator (http://www.cvdrisk.com.cn) or APP, which are very useful when conducted individualized counseling on absolute risk of ASCVD and the potential benefits of lifestyle and/or therapeutic interventions targeted at risk factors.

In order to make the understanding of high lifetime risk more clear, the authors also demonstrated ASCVD-free years of lost due to high 10-year risk and/or lifetime risk. For example, compared with men having both low 10-year and low lifetime risk, men would develop ASCVD 3.0, 4.6 and 8.6 years earlier if they had high 10-year risk alone, high lifetime risk alone, or both high 10-year and high lifetime risk at the index age of 35 years, respectively. "These findings will facilitate in raising awareness of long-term ASCVD risk especially in young adults with low or medium 10-year risk, and enable early intervention on risk factors with suboptimal levels," said Simin Liu, who is a professor from Brown University.

"We hope to help more people recognize their risk of ASCVD at an earlier age, which will prompt them to adopt a healthy lifestyle, take preventive measures, and improve therapeutic compliance," said Dongfeng Gu, head of the research team.

"Applying this tool will be useful for communicating long-term risks of ASCVD with individuals, especially for those with low 10-year risk, and further encouraging intensive clinical and public health interventions. It will be beneficial to improve risk factors control and further reduce the great disease burden of ASCVD in China," the authors conclude.
-end-
This study was supported by grants from the CAMS Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences (2017-I2M-1-004), the Ministry of Science and Technology of China (2017YFC0211700, 2011BAI11B03, 2011BAI09B03, and 2006BAI01A01), and National Natural Science Foundation of China (91643208).

See the article:

1. Fangchao Liu, Jianxin Li, Jichun Chen, Dongsheng Hu, Ying Li, Jianfeng Huang, Xiaoqing Liu, Xueli Yang, Jie Cao, Chong Shen, Ling Yu, Zhendong Liu, Xianping Wu, Liancheng Zhao, Xigui Wu, Dongfeng Gu, Xiangfeng Lu. Predicting Lifetime Risk for Developing Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease in Chinese Population: The China-PAR project. Science Bulletin 2018, 63(12): 779-787

2. Mengna Huang, Simin Liu. Ending the epidemics of cardiovascular diseases: time is now to integrate both population and individual strategies for prevention. Science Bulletin 2018, 63(12): 735-736

Science China Press

Related Cardiovascular Disease Articles:

Premature death from cardiovascular disease
National data were used to examine changes from 2000 to 2015 in premature death (ages 25 to 64) from cardiovascular disease in the United States.
Ultrasound: The potential power for cardiovascular disease therapy
In the current issue of Cardiovascular Innovations and Applications volume 4, issue 2, pp.
Despite the ACA, millions of Americans with cardiovascular disease still can't get care
Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death for Americans, yet millions with CVD or cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) still can't access the care they need, even years after the implementation of the Affordable Care Act (ACA).
Excess weight and body fat cause cardiovascular disease
In the first Mendelian randomization study to look at this, researchers have found evidence that excess weight and body fat cause a range of heart and blood vessel diseases (rather than just being associated with it).
Disease remission associated with 80% reduction in risk of cardiovascular outcomes
The results of a study presented today at the Annual European Congress of Rheumatology (EULAR 2019) demonstrate that remission in patients with rheumatoid arthritis is associated with an 80% reduction in risk of cardiovascular outcomes.
Enzyme may indicate predisposition to cardiovascular disease
Study suggests that people with low levels of PDIA1 in blood plasma may be at high risk of thrombosis; this group also investigated PDIA1's specific interactions in cancer.
Cardiovascular disease in China
This study analyzed data from the Global Burden of Disease Study to look at the rate of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in China along with death and disability from CVD from 1990 to 2016.
Obstructive sleep apnea and cardiovascular disease in women
Obstructive Sleep Apnea and Cardiovascular Disease in Women In the current issue of Cardiovascular Innovations and Applications (Special Issue on Women's Cardiovascular Health, Volume 3, Number 4, 2019, Guest Editor Gladys P.
Nearly half of all adult Americans have cardiovascular disease
At least 48 percent of all adults in the United States have some form of cardiovascular disease, according to the latest statistics provided by the American Heart Association.
Analyzing aspirin use in patients without cardiovascular disease
This study analyzed combined results from 13 randomized clinical trials with more than 164,000 participants to assess aspirin use with the prevention of cardiovascular events and bleeding in people without cardiovascular disease.
More Cardiovascular Disease News and Cardiovascular Disease Current Events

Best Science Podcasts 2019

We have hand picked the best science podcasts for 2019. Sit back and enjoy new science podcasts updated daily from your favorite science news services and scientists.
Now Playing: TED Radio Hour

Rethinking Anger
Anger is universal and complex: it can be quiet, festering, justified, vengeful, and destructive. This hour, TED speakers explore the many sides of anger, why we need it, and who's allowed to feel it. Guests include psychologists Ryan Martin and Russell Kolts, writer Soraya Chemaly, former talk radio host Lisa Fritsch, and business professor Dan Moshavi.
Now Playing: Science for the People

#538 Nobels and Astrophysics
This week we start with this year's physics Nobel Prize awarded to Jim Peebles, Michel Mayor, and Didier Queloz and finish with a discussion of the Nobel Prizes as a way to award and highlight important science. Are they still relevant? When science breakthroughs are built on the backs of hundreds -- and sometimes thousands -- of people's hard work, how do you pick just three to highlight? Join host Rachelle Saunders and astrophysicist, author, and science communicator Ethan Siegel for their chat about astrophysics and Nobel Prizes.