Nav: Home

A new model to estimate lifetime risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease

July 23, 2018

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality and also contributes to huge health care expenditures in China. Therefore, accurate and early identification of high-risk individuals is important for CVD prevention. The China-PAR (Prediction for atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) Risk in China) project generated equations with excellent capacity to predict lifetime risk for ASCVD by incorporating four large and ongoing cohorts followed up until 2015 with 106,281 Chinese participants, according to a new study published by Science Bulletin.

According to the authors, these are the most recent lifetime risk estimates for ASCVD that predict personalized lifetime risk, and their reliability and generalizability have been verified by internal and external validation. Using these equations will provide novel information for a comprehensive assessment of ASCVD disease burden, especially for young and middle-aged adults with low 10-year risks. Individuals may gain many benefits if interventions start as early as possible. Beside major risk factors (blood pressure, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, current smoking, and diabetes), waist circumference and geographic region (northern/southern China) were included in the ASCVD lifetime risk equations for women and men, and urbanization (urban/rural) and family history of ASCVD were further included in the equations for men.

Based on the findings, the research team has developed tools to estimate lifetime risk, including the web-based calculator (http://www.cvdrisk.com.cn) or APP, which are very useful when conducted individualized counseling on absolute risk of ASCVD and the potential benefits of lifestyle and/or therapeutic interventions targeted at risk factors.

In order to make the understanding of high lifetime risk more clear, the authors also demonstrated ASCVD-free years of lost due to high 10-year risk and/or lifetime risk. For example, compared with men having both low 10-year and low lifetime risk, men would develop ASCVD 3.0, 4.6 and 8.6 years earlier if they had high 10-year risk alone, high lifetime risk alone, or both high 10-year and high lifetime risk at the index age of 35 years, respectively. "These findings will facilitate in raising awareness of long-term ASCVD risk especially in young adults with low or medium 10-year risk, and enable early intervention on risk factors with suboptimal levels," said Simin Liu, who is a professor from Brown University.

"We hope to help more people recognize their risk of ASCVD at an earlier age, which will prompt them to adopt a healthy lifestyle, take preventive measures, and improve therapeutic compliance," said Dongfeng Gu, head of the research team.

"Applying this tool will be useful for communicating long-term risks of ASCVD with individuals, especially for those with low 10-year risk, and further encouraging intensive clinical and public health interventions. It will be beneficial to improve risk factors control and further reduce the great disease burden of ASCVD in China," the authors conclude.
-end-
This study was supported by grants from the CAMS Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences (2017-I2M-1-004), the Ministry of Science and Technology of China (2017YFC0211700, 2011BAI11B03, 2011BAI09B03, and 2006BAI01A01), and National Natural Science Foundation of China (91643208).

See the article:

1. Fangchao Liu, Jianxin Li, Jichun Chen, Dongsheng Hu, Ying Li, Jianfeng Huang, Xiaoqing Liu, Xueli Yang, Jie Cao, Chong Shen, Ling Yu, Zhendong Liu, Xianping Wu, Liancheng Zhao, Xigui Wu, Dongfeng Gu, Xiangfeng Lu. Predicting Lifetime Risk for Developing Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease in Chinese Population: The China-PAR project. Science Bulletin 2018, 63(12): 779-787

2. Mengna Huang, Simin Liu. Ending the epidemics of cardiovascular diseases: time is now to integrate both population and individual strategies for prevention. Science Bulletin 2018, 63(12): 735-736

Science China Press

Related Cardiovascular Disease Articles:

Is educational attainment associated with lifetime risk of cardiovascular disease?
Men and women with the lowest education level had higher lifetime risks of cardiovascular disease than those with the highest education level, according to a new study published by JAMA Internal Medicine.
Food policies could lower US cardiovascular disease rates
New research conducted by the University of Liverpool and partners shows that food policies, such as fruit and vegetable subsidies, taxes on sugar sweetened drinks, and mass media campaigns to change dietary habits, could avert hundreds of thousands of deaths from cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the United States.
Cardiovascular disease causes one-third of deaths worldwide
Cardiovascular diseases (CVD), including heart diseases and stroke, account for one-third of deaths throughout the world, according to a new scientific study that examined every country over the past 25 years.
Kidney disease is a major cause of cardiovascular deaths
In 2013, reduced kidney function was associated with 4 percent of deaths worldwide, or 2.2 million deaths.
Cardiovascular disease costs will exceed $1 trillion by 2035
A new study projects that by 2035, cardiovascular disease, the most costly and prevalent killer, if left unchecked, will place a crushing economic and health burden on the nation's financial and health care systems.
Prescribing drugs for cardiovascular disease prevention in the UK
Drugs such as statins that have the potential to prevent strokes and other types of cardiovascular disease have not been prescribed to a large proportion of people at risk in the UK, according to a research article by Grace Turner of the University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK and colleagues published in PLOS Medicine.
Fatty liver disease contributes to cardiovascular disease and vice versa
For the first time, researchers have shown that a bi-directional relationship exists between fatty liver disease and cardiovascular disease.
More dietary calcium may lower risk of cardiovascular disease
In older people, higher dietary calcium intake may lower the risk of cardiovascular disease, but not of stroke and fracture, new research from South Korea suggests.
Renal hemodynamics and cardiovascular function in health and disease
The SRC will focus on unpublished work that is state-of-the-art in study of cardiovascular and renal disease and hypertension.
Cardiovascular disease in adult survivors of childhood cancer
For adult survivors of childhood cancer, cardiovascular disease presents at an earlier age, is associated with substantial morbidity, and is often asymptomatic.

Related Cardiovascular Disease Reading:

Best Science Podcasts 2019

We have hand picked the best science podcasts for 2019. Sit back and enjoy new science podcasts updated daily from your favorite science news services and scientists.
Now Playing: TED Radio Hour

Bias And Perception
How does bias distort our thinking, our listening, our beliefs... and even our search results? How can we fight it? This hour, TED speakers explore ideas about the unconscious biases that shape us. Guests include writer and broadcaster Yassmin Abdel-Magied, climatologist J. Marshall Shepherd, journalist Andreas Ekström, and experimental psychologist Tony Salvador.
Now Playing: Science for the People

#513 Dinosaur Tails
This week: dinosaurs! We're discussing dinosaur tails, bipedalism, paleontology public outreach, dinosaur MOOCs, and other neat dinosaur related things with Dr. Scott Persons from the University of Alberta, who is also the author of the book "Dinosaurs of the Alberta Badlands".