Multimodel ensemble prediction of summer droughts over the Yellow River Basin

August 13, 2018

The Yellow River basin is located in arid and semi-arid areas, where drought is one of the most severe natural disasters. However, soil moisture drought prediction at the seasonal time scale is very challenging, due to limited climate predictability over the mid-latitude region and uncertainties in land surface modeling over complex landscapes.

"It is necessary to explore the predictability of drought from an ensemble prediction perspective over the Yellow River basin, both for deterministic and probabilistic drought forecasting," says Prof. Xing Yuan, from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences and the corresponding author of a paper on this topic recently published in Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters.

Their results indicated that, after bias correction of the meteorological forecast and the implementation of a well-calibrated land surface hydrological model, summer soil moisture drought forecasting was improved significantly, especially over the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River basin. Compared with the raw forecasts from climate models, the climate-hydrology approach had a higher probabilistic drought forecasting skill in terms of a higher Brier skill score and better reliability and resolution of the ensemble.

"The ensemble prediction will provide invaluable information for drought adaptation over the Yellow River basin," says Yuan. "In the future, we will optimize the multimodel ensemble for a better prediction of extreme events."
-end-


Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences

Related Drought Articles from Brightsurf:

Redefining drought in the US corn belt
As the climate trends warmer and drier, global food security increasingly hinges on crops' ability to withstand drought.

The cost of drought in Italy
Drought-induced economic losses ranged in Italy between 0.55 and 1.75 billion euros over the period 2001-2016, and droughts caused significant collateral effects not only on the agricultural sector, but also on food manufacturing industries.

Consequences of the 2018 summer drought
The drought that hit central and northern Europe in summer 2018 had serious effects on crops, forests and grasslands.

Songbirds reduce reproduction to help survive drought
New research from the University of Montana suggests tropical songbirds in both the Old and New Worlds reduce reproduction during severe droughts, and this - somewhat surprisingly -- may actually increase their survival rates.

Predicting drought in the American West just got more difficult
A new, USC-led study of more than 1,000 years of North American droughts and global conditions found that forecasting a lack of precipitation is rarely straightforward.

Where is the water during a drought?
In low precipitation periods - where and how is the limited available water distributed and what possibilities are there for improving retention in the soil and the landscape?

What does drought mean for endangered California salmon?
Droughts threatens California's endangered salmon population -- but pools that serve as drought refuges could make the difference between life and death for these vulnerable fish.

With shrinking snowpack, drought predictability melting away
New research from CU Boulder suggests that during the 21st century, our ability to predict drought using snow will literally melt away.

An evapotranspiration deficit drought index to detect drought impacts on ecosystems
The difference between actual and potential evapotranspiration, technically termed a standardized evapotranspiration deficit drought index (SEDI), can more sensitively capture the biological changes of ecosystems in response to the dynamics of drought intensity, compared with indices based on precipitation and temperature.

Sesame yields stable in drought conditions
Research shows adding sesame to cotton-sorghum crop rotations is possible in west Texas

Read More: Drought News and Drought Current Events
Brightsurf.com is a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program designed to provide a means for sites to earn advertising fees by advertising and linking to Amazon.com.