Nav: Home

Global fisheries could still become more profitable despite global warming

August 29, 2018

Global commercial fish stocks could provide more food and profits in the future, despite warming seas, if adaptive management practices are implemented. Even so, yields for nearly half of the species analyzed are projected to fall below today's levels.

Researchers from Japan's Hokkaido University, the University of California, Santa Barbara (UCSB), National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, and Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) found that harvesting sustainable amounts of seafood globally over the next 75 years can lead to higher total food production and profits, even taking into consideration the fish populations which are projected to decline as the ocean warms and habitats change.

This is because, under what has been determined as the best management scenario, some major fish and shellfish stocks that are commercially harvested, broadly referred to as fisheries, will grow and become more profitable, offsetting the many others projected to shrink or even disappear. On a global average, profitability could rise by 14 billion USD and harvest by 217 million metric tons above today's levels, according to the study.

There is a catch. In the model, the growth was achieved under the projected moderate warming of 2.2°C (3.9°F) above average global temperatures by 2100. But if temperatures rise further, global fish harvest and profits are expected to decline below today's levels even with the best management in place.

The researchers say their study, published in Science Advances, conveys an important message: the oceans can continue to be a source of healthy seafood and sustainable livelihoods for billions of people, but only if action is taken to manage the stocks well and limit the carbon emissions that drive climate change.

"If we continue to work toward developing adaptive fishery management strategies, and we commit to the international agreements for climate change mitigation and emission reductions, the future may be overall brighter than so far anticipated," says aquatic ecologist Jorge García Molinos of Hokkaido University.

He noted that this potentially brighter future appears unattainable for nearly half of the 915 species and mixed groups of species analyzed in the study. The tropics will be hit especially hard, where warming is projected to be the greatest.

This work represents the first study incorporating both climate change projections and alternative management approaches into predictions of future fishery status. The authors first modelled the effect of climate warming on geographical fishery range distributions and productivity, affecting where and how much can be fished, using four contrasting climate change scenarios (rises of 1.0°C to 3.7°C in average global temperatures by 2100). For each of these climate scenarios, the team then projected how biomass, harvest and profits for each stock would change under four management scenarios. The management scenarios include: no changes to current fishing rates; varying fishing rates according to changes in stock populations; varying fishing rates according to changes in distribution patterns; or full adaptation that maintains sustainable harvest levels even as stocks fluctuate and shift throughout fishing territories.

Addressing both productivity and distribution changes through a fully adaptive management strategy led, on average, to higher yields and profits in all but the most extreme climate scenario. This is something unattainable if either challenge is addressed alone. The researchers admit that achieving such comprehensive management may be idealistic, but note that improved management of just 10% of the global stocks could still lead to a rise in global profits.

In an effort to capture a global picture, the models did not incorporate other factors that influence marine populations, including species interactions and other stressors besides warming. "Fitting more of these elements into the big picture will be important for improving predictions and should be the subject of future work," says García Molinos.
-end-


Hokkaido University

Related Management Articles:

A new strategy for the management of inflammatory pain
A group of researchers from Charité - Universitätsmedizin Berlin has discovered a new mechanism of long-lasting pain relief.
Big ideas in performance management 2.0
Industrial-era performance management paradigms and practices are outdated and ineffective in the modern VUCA work environment.
Water management grows farm profits
A study investigates effects of irrigation management on yield and profit.
What we can learn from Indigenous land management
First Nations peoples' world view and connection to Country provide a rich source of knowledge and innovations for better land and water management policies when Indigenous decision-making is enacted, Australian researchers say.
Study changes guidelines for sepsis management
University of Arizona Health Sciences researcher ends debate among physicians regarding sepsis management.
Native approaches to fire management
In collaboration with tribes in Northern California, researchers examined traditional fire management practices and found that these approaches, if expanded, could strengthen cultures and reduce the risk of catastrophic wildfires in Northern California.
Is wildfire management 'for the birds?'
Spotted owl populations are in decline all along the West Coast, and as climate change increases the risk of large and destructive wildfires in the region, these iconic animals face the real threat of losing even more of their forest habitat.
More woodland management needed to help save dormice
Managing woodlands to a greater extent could help stop the decline of Britain's dormice, new research suggests.
The surgical management of Ebstein anomaly
In the current issue of Cardiovascular Innovations and Applications (Volume3, Number 1, 2018, pp. pp.
Asthma management: Allocating duties
Some examples of the persistence of incompletely resolved issues in asthma management are: 1) misdiagnosis -- with the related complex consequences --, especially in children population and, 2) poor control of the disease.
More Management News and Management Current Events

Trending Science News

Current Coronavirus (COVID-19) News

Top Science Podcasts

We have hand picked the top science podcasts of 2020.
Now Playing: TED Radio Hour

Listen Again: Meditations on Loneliness
Original broadcast date: April 24, 2020. We're a social species now living in isolation. But loneliness was a problem well before this era of social distancing. This hour, TED speakers explore how we can live and make peace with loneliness. Guests on the show include author and illustrator Jonny Sun, psychologist Susan Pinker, architect Grace Kim, and writer Suleika Jaouad.
Now Playing: Science for the People

#565 The Great Wide Indoors
We're all spending a bit more time indoors this summer than we probably figured. But did you ever stop to think about why the places we live and work as designed the way they are? And how they could be designed better? We're talking with Emily Anthes about her new book "The Great Indoors: The Surprising Science of how Buildings Shape our Behavior, Health and Happiness".
Now Playing: Radiolab

The Third. A TED Talk.
Jad gives a TED talk about his life as a journalist and how Radiolab has evolved over the years. Here's how TED described it:How do you end a story? Host of Radiolab Jad Abumrad tells how his search for an answer led him home to the mountains of Tennessee, where he met an unexpected teacher: Dolly Parton.Jad Nicholas Abumrad is a Lebanese-American radio host, composer and producer. He is the founder of the syndicated public radio program Radiolab, which is broadcast on over 600 radio stations nationwide and is downloaded more than 120 million times a year as a podcast. He also created More Perfect, a podcast that tells the stories behind the Supreme Court's most famous decisions. And most recently, Dolly Parton's America, a nine-episode podcast exploring the life and times of the iconic country music star. Abumrad has received three Peabody Awards and was named a MacArthur Fellow in 2011.