Pilot model forecasts complex earthquake sequences with increased accuracySeptember 13, 2017
Pilot Model Forecasts Complex Earthquake Sequences with Increased Accuracy: Scientists have validated a recently developed earthquake forecasting model based on observations of a complex earthquake sequence in Italy, which they say may lead to better global risk mitigation planning. The ability to accurately forecast earthquakes has remained a challenge, especially for seismic events that do not follow typical mainshock-aftershock sequences (where one large earthquake is followed by many smaller aftershocks). To date, the most widely-accepted aftershock forecasting model, the Reasenberg and Jones (R&J) model, does not account for spatial information, and assumes that earthquakes exceeding a specific magnitude produce other earthquakes (in addition to the mainshock). Researchers therefore created new clustering models called the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) and the short-term earthquake probability (STEP) models, yet their statistical reliability is relatively unknown. In an effort to gauge such models' statistical reliability, Warner Marzocchi and colleagues analyzed the weekly earthquake forecasts (including 40 target earthquakes) that occurred during the 2016-2017 Amatrice-Norcia sequence, to test the accuracy of the operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) system, a model that combines aspects of both the ETAS and STEP models. They found that, during this specific sequence, the OEF system provided statistically reliable forecasts when compared to the observed events of the largest earthquakes in central Italy. Marzocchi et al. argue that while the model is still in its pilot phase, the OEF's "brick-by-brick" approach could change the way scientists think about earthquake predictability, and ultimately provide seismologists with the tools they need to more accurately forecast earthquakes.
American Association for the Advancement of Science
Related Earthquakes Articles:
New research finds large earthquakes can trigger underwater landslides thousands of miles away, weeks or months after the quake occurs.
Nagoya University-led researchers characterized several earthquakes that struck South America's west coast over the last 100 years by using seismographic data, tsunami recordings, and models of the rapid plate movements associated with these natural disasters.
There is a 43 percent probability that the Wasatch Front region in Utah will experience at least one magnitude 6.75 or greater earthquake, and a 57 percent probability of at least one magnitude 6.0 earthquake, in the next 50 years, say researchers speaking at the 2017 Seismological Society of America's (SSA) Annual Meeting.
As hydraulic fracturing operations expand in Canada and in some parts of the United States, researchers at the 2017 Seismological Society of America's (SSA) Annual Meeting are taking a closer look at ways to minimize hazards from the earthquakes triggered by those operations.
Earthquakes such as the February 2016 magnitude 5.1 Fairview quake, November 2016's 5.0 Cushing quake, and the September 2016 5.8 Pawnee quake -- the state's largest in historic times -- have made Oklahoma a laboratory for studying human-induced seismicity, according to researchers gathering at the 2017 Seismological Society of America's (SSA) Annual meeting.
As part of the 'Research in Collaborative Mathematics' project run by the Obra Social 'la Caixa', researchers of the Mathematics Research Centre (CRM) and the UAB have developed a mathematical law to explain the size distribution of earthquakes, even in the cases of large-scale earthquakes such as those which occurred in Sumatra (2004) and in Japan (2011).
Stanford scientists predict that over the next few years, the rate of induced earthquake in Oklahoma will decrease significantly, but the possibility for damaging earthquakes to occur will remain high.
A new study on how people feel the effects of earthquakes illustrates the value that members of the public can add to the scientific research process.
Earthquakes triggered by human activity have been happening in Texas since at least 1925, and they have been widespread throughout the state ever since, according to a new historical review of the evidence published online May 18 in Seismological Research Letters.
A new study on the connection between earthquakes and volcanoes took its inspiration from old engineering basics.
Related Earthquakes Reading:
by Seymour Simon (Author)
Seymour Simon knows how to explain science to kids and make it fun. He was a teacher for over twenty years, has written more than 250 books, and has won multiple awards. In Earthquakes, Simon introduces elementary-school readers to earthquakes through engaging descriptions and stunning full-color photographs. He teaches readers why and how earthquakes happen and the damage they can cause through pictures, diagrams, and maps. He also gives real life examples of earthquakes that have occurred all over the world. This book includes a glossary and index.
Supports the Common Core... View Details
Earthquakes (A True Book)
by Ker Than (Author)
A study of earthquakes and the science behind them. View Details
Quakeland: On the Road to America's Next Devastating Earthquake
by Kathryn Miles (Author)
A journey around the United States in search of the truth about the threat of earthquakes leads to spine-tingling discoveries, unnerving experts, and ultimately the kind of preparations that will actually help guide us through disasters. It’s a road trip full of surprises.
Earthquakes. You need to worry about them only if you’re in San Francisco, right? Wrong. We have been making enormous changes to subterranean America, and Mother Earth, as always, has been making some of her own. . . . The consequences for our real estate, our civil engineering, and our... View Details
Earthquakes (Let's-Read-and-Find-Out Science 2)
by Franklyn M. Branley (Author), Megan Lloyd (Illustrator)
Read and find out about one of nature’s most mysterious forces—the earthquake. Some earthquakes are so small that you don’t even feel them, while others can make even big buildings shake! Learn why earthquakes happen, where they are most likely to occur, and what to do if one happens near you.
Now rebranded with a new cover look and with updated text and art, this classic picture book describes the causes and effects of earthquakes (including a tsunami). This book features rich vocabulary and fascinating cross-sections of mountains, volcanoes, and faults in the earth’s moving... View Details
The Great Quake: How the Biggest Earthquake in North America Changed Our Understanding of the Planet
by Henry Fountain (Author)
In the bestselling tradition of Erik Larson’s Isaac’s Storm, The Great Quake is a riveting narrative about the biggest earthquake in North American recorded history -- the 1964 Alaska earthquake that demolished the city of Valdez and swept away the island village of Chenega -- and the geologist who hunted for clues to explain how and why it took place.
At 5:36 p.m. on March 27, 1964, a magnitude 9.2. earthquake – the second most powerful in world history – struck the young state of Alaska. The violent shaking, followed by massive tsunamis, devastated... View Details
Full-Rip 9.0: The Next Big Earthquake in the Pacific Northwest
by Sandi Doughton (Author)
Scientists have identified Seattle, Portland, and Vancouver as the urban centers of what will be the biggest earthquake—the Really Big One—in the continental United States. A quake will happen--in fact it's actually overdue. The Cascadia subduction zone is 750 miles long, running along the Pacific coast from Northern California up to southern British Columbia. In this fascinating book, The Seattle Times science reporter Sandi Doughton introduces readers to the scientists who are dedicated to understanding the way the earth moves and describes what patterns can be identified and how... View Details
National Geographic Kids Everything Volcanoes and Earthquakes: Earthshaking photos, facts, and fun!
by Kathy Furgang (Author)
National Geographic Kids Everything Volcanoes and Earthquakes explodes with incredible photos and amazing facts about the awesome powers of nature. You'll find out that three-quarters of Earth's volcanoes are underwater, that an earthquake in Chile shortened the day by 1.26 milliseconds, and much more. Bursting with fascinating information about the biggest volcanic eruptions and earth-shattering earthquakes, this book takes a fun approach to science, introducing kids to plate tectonics and the tumultuous forces brewing beneath the Earth's surface. Filled with fabulous photos and... View Details
Earthquake! (Rise and Shine) (Natural Disasters)
by Marion Dane Bauer (Author), John Wallace (Illustrator)
What causes an earthquake is a mystery -- until you go deep beneath the Earth's surface. Read on to find out what causes the incredibly destructive natural disaster -- the earthquake! View Details
Earthquakes: Geology and Weather (Science Readers)
by Teacher Created Materials;William B. Rice (Author)
Most of the Earth's changes happen over millions of years, but earthquakes can force significant changes to the land in just a few moments. Readers will learn the science of plate tectonics and its role in the development of earthquakes around the globe. They will also learn that not all rocks are created equal. In fact, rocks are all different ages! This book concludes with images of the damage and destruction that earthquakes can cause.
About Shell Education
Rachelle Cracchiolo started the company with a friend and fellow teacher. Both were eager to share their ideas and... View Details
Things That Happened Before the Earthquake: A Novel
by Chiara Barzini (Author)
Welcome to LA? Nineties' Hollywood gets an Italian makeover in this poignant and ruefully funny coming-of-age novel featuring a teenage girl who's on shaky ground—in more ways than one.
Mere weeks after the 1992 riots that laid waste to Los Angeles, Eugenia, a typical Italian teenager, is rudely yanked from her privileged Roman milieu by her hippie-ish filmmaker parents and transplanted to the strange suburban world of the San Fernando Valley. With only the Virgin Mary to call on for guidance as her parents struggle to make it big, Hollywood fashion, she must navigate her... View Details