Pilot model forecasts complex earthquake sequences with increased accuracy

September 13, 2017

Pilot Model Forecasts Complex Earthquake Sequences with Increased Accuracy: Scientists have validated a recently developed earthquake forecasting model based on observations of a complex earthquake sequence in Italy, which they say may lead to better global risk mitigation planning. The ability to accurately forecast earthquakes has remained a challenge, especially for seismic events that do not follow typical mainshock-aftershock sequences (where one large earthquake is followed by many smaller aftershocks). To date, the most widely-accepted aftershock forecasting model, the Reasenberg and Jones (R&J) model, does not account for spatial information, and assumes that earthquakes exceeding a specific magnitude produce other earthquakes (in addition to the mainshock). Researchers therefore created new clustering models called the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) and the short-term earthquake probability (STEP) models, yet their statistical reliability is relatively unknown. In an effort to gauge such models' statistical reliability, Warner Marzocchi and colleagues analyzed the weekly earthquake forecasts (including 40 target earthquakes) that occurred during the 2016-2017 Amatrice-Norcia sequence, to test the accuracy of the operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) system, a model that combines aspects of both the ETAS and STEP models. They found that, during this specific sequence, the OEF system provided statistically reliable forecasts when compared to the observed events of the largest earthquakes in central Italy. Marzocchi et al. argue that while the model is still in its pilot phase, the OEF's "brick-by-brick" approach could change the way scientists think about earthquake predictability, and ultimately provide seismologists with the tools they need to more accurately forecast earthquakes.
-end-


American Association for the Advancement of Science

Related Earthquakes Articles from Brightsurf:

AI detects hidden earthquakes
Tiny movements in Earth's outermost layer may provide a Rosetta Stone for deciphering the physics and warning signs of big quakes.

Undersea earthquakes shake up climate science
Sound generated by seismic events on the seabed can be used to determine the temperature of Earth's warming oceans.

New discovery could highlight areas where earthquakes are less likely to occur
Scientists from Cardiff University have discovered specific conditions that occur along the ocean floor where two tectonic plates are more likely to slowly creep past one another as opposed to drastically slipping and creating catastrophic earthquakes.

Does accelerated subduction precede great earthquakes?
A strange reversal of ground motion preceded two of the largest earthquakes in history.

Scientists get first look at cause of 'slow motion' earthquakes
An international team of scientists has for the first time identified the conditions deep below the Earth's surface that lead to the triggering of so-called 'slow motion' earthquakes.

Separations between earthquakes reveal clear patterns
So far, few studies have explored how the similarity between inter-earthquake times and distances is related to their separation from initial events.

How earthquakes deform gravity
Researchers at the German Research Centre for Geosciences GFZ in Potsdam have developed an algorithm that for the first time can describe a gravitational signal caused by earthquakes with high accuracy.

Bridge protection in catastrophic earthquakes
Bridges are the most vulnerable parts of a transport network when earthquakes occur, obstructing emergency response, search and rescue missions and aid delivery, increasing potential fatalities.

Earthquakes, chickens, and bugs, oh my!
Computer scientists at the University of California, Riverside have developed two algorithms that will improve earthquake monitoring and help farmers protect their crops from dangerous insects, or monitor the health of chickens and other animals.

Can a UNICORN outrun earthquakes?
A University of Tokyo Team transformed its UNICORN computing code into an AI-like algorithm to more quickly simulate tectonic plate deformation due to a phenomenon called a ''fault slip,'' a sudden shift that occurs at the plate boundary.

Read More: Earthquakes News and Earthquakes Current Events
Brightsurf.com is a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program designed to provide a means for sites to earn advertising fees by advertising and linking to Amazon.com.